Asking and answering Dolphins playoff, flex, contract questions
Asking and answering a few Dolphins questions heading into the Monday night game against Tennessee:
â–ª The team that gets the No. 1 overall AFC seed (a position the Dolphins now hold) gets a first-round bye and needs to win only two playoff games, both at home, to make the Super Bowl. So how do the Dolphins stand with tiebreakers with their main competition for the top seed?
The tiebreaker between the 9-3 Dolphins and 9-3 Ravens will be determined by their Dec. 31 matchup in Baltimore; Miami has the edge now because of a superior conference record.
The Chiefs (8-4) own the tiebreaker with the Dolphins by virtue of their head-to-head win in Germany.
A tie between the Dolphins and Jaguars (8-4) would be determined by conference record; Miami is at 6-2 and Jacksonville 6-3.
Should they finish with the same conference record, the next tiebreaker is common opponents. The Jaguars have the current edge there: They are 2-1 against common opponents, while Miami is 0-2. Jacksonville could boost that record further by beating Carolina, but several other common opponents remain.
â–ª Could the Dolphins clinch the No. 1 seed before the end of the calendar year and before their Jan. 6-7 finale against Buffalo?
Yes. If the Dolphins win their next four (Tennessee, Jets, Dallas and at Baltimore on Dec. 31), Miami would clinch the No. 1 seed if the Chiefs and Jaguars lose at least once this month.
The Chiefs have Buffalo, at New England, then Las Vegas and Cincinnati before closing Jan. 6 or 7 at the Chargers.
The Jaguars have difficult games at Cleveland and vs. Baltimore, then visit Tampa Bay and host Carolina on New Year’s Eve before finishing at Tennessee.
â–ª If the Dolphins beat Tennessee, the Jets and Dallas but lose to Baltimore, could Miami still claim the No. 1 seed ahead of the Ravens?
Because Baltimore would then own the tiebreaker with Miami, the only way Miami could be the top seed in that scenario is if the Ravens lose two games and Miami then beats Buffalo to end the season.
That’s not out of the question. Baltimore will be an underdog on Christmas night at San Francisco. The Ravens’ other games: home against the Rams, at Jacksonville, and then home to Miami and Pittsburgh. So the Ravens would need to lose at the 49ers and one of the other non-Miami games for Miami to be a No. 1 seed with a loss at Baltimore.
And even then, the Chiefs would need to lose one more game. So might the Jaguars.
â–ª Is there any risk of the Dolphins squandering their AFC East lead?
Miami is three games ahead of Buffalo (6-6) and has a magic number of three to clinch the division title — meaning any combination of three wins and Bills loses.
If Buffalo wins at Miami in the finale to clinch the tiebreaker with Miami, and if the Dolphins beat the Titans and Jets but lose to the Cowboys and Ravens, the only way that Buffalo would win the division is by sweeping a very difficult remaining schedule.
Before playing at the Dolphins in the finale, Buffalo plays at Kansas City, home to Dallas, at the Chargers and home to New England.
â–ª Could the Dec. 24 Cowboys-at-Dolphins game be flexed to prime time?
It cannot, because the New England-Denver game on NFL Network on Sunday night, Dec. 24, is not able to be flexed. Fox will get to keep the Dolphins-Cowboys game and will air it in nearly all of the country at 4:25 p.m.
â–ª Could the Dec. 31 game at Baltimore or the finale against Buffalo be moved to prime time?
Yes, though the Ravens game is unlikely to be moved to prime time if the teams scheduled to play on NBC on New Year’s Eve (the Packers and Vikings) remain in playoff contention.
There’s a chance the NFL could flip the time of the 1 p.m. Dolphins-Ravens game and the 4:25 p.m. Cincinnati-Kansas City game. Both are on CBS. That flipping is something that I expect will be discussed.
The day and start time of the Bills finale will be determined after Week 16 games. It could end up at 4:30 or 8:15 on Saturday, Jan. 6 on ESPN, or 1 p.m., 4:25 p.m. or 8:20 p.m. on Sunday night, Jan. 7.
â–ª With Terron Armstead again dealing with an injury, could the Dolphins move on from him after the season?
It will be difficult. Of his $13.2 million salary for next season, $5 million is already guaranteed. His $20.6 million cap hit will need to be lowered with a restructure, but even if Miami cuts him after June 1, he would have an $11.3 million dead money hit on the Dolphins’ books in 2024.
So cutting him isn’t appealing, considering his value to the team.
▪ What’s the deal with Jerome Baker’s contract?
His $14.8 million cap hit for 2024 shrinks to $3.7 milllon if he’s cut before June 1. But the team liked how he was playing before his injury. None of his $10.7 million next season is guaranteed.
INJURY UPDATE
Guard Robert Hunt (hamstring) and Jerome Baker (linebacker) were the only two Dolphins missing during the open portion of practice. The team will be cautious with Hunt’s hamstring.
Jevon Holland (knees) and Terron Armstead (ankle) remain question marks for Monday’s game against visiting Tennessee (8:15 p.m., ESPN/CW-39). Both were limited Friday.
Christian WIlkins popped up on the injury report with a groin injury and was limited Friday.
Left tackle Kendall Lamm, who has been nursing a knee injury, said he believes he will be able to play Monday if he’s needed.
