We asked the world’s leading experts and employers whether AI is a ‘Gray Rhino’ or ‘Black Swan’ for the future of work–and found we’re all about to get trampled by a herd of Gray Rhinos

Kelly Monahan
LUCA SOLA - AFP - Getty Images

Artificial intelligence (AI) is fundamentally transforming all aspects of society, including the world of work. With the convergence of generative AI, automation, and increasing computational power, the AI market is projected to reach $407 billion by 2027, with an expected annual growth rate of 37.3% between 2023-30. Our survey of 1,900 top executives found that the integration of AI is at the top of the list of critical factors executives at Fortune 500 companies plan to consider in 2024–and Upwork platform data reveals the newfound growth of roles in areas like prompt engineering, natural language processing (NLP), and AI-generated content creation.

As AI technologies and skills continue to become a high priority for businesses, the question looms large: Is AI a Gray Rhino, an obvious yet often underestimated risk, or could it potentially manifest as a Black Swan, a rare and disruptive event that takes us by surprise?

To understand how AI, geopolitical environments, and shifting labor markets are shaping the future of work, we have also gathered opinions and insights from over 20 global experts, spanning various academic and business disciplines.

Spotting the AI Gray Rhino

Although the change may be prolific, AI’s arrival was relatively predictable. After all, the technology was first introduced in the 1950s and has progressed at a steady clip throughout the ensuing decades.

Partnering with Wikistrat and bringing together over 20 global experts across 10 industries and 8 countries, our research unveiled that many believe AI will interact with other forces to create a Gray Rhino effect–a slowly emerging and somewhat obvious event many ignore. These events are often high-impact, yet neglected threats. Unlike Black Swan events that are improbable and hard to predict, Gray Rhino events are highly probable and can often be mitigated with positive leadership action and change.

The research and dialogue among experts also indicated that AI was not a single Gray Rhino, but a herd of Gray Rhinos. This means that AI has ushered in other related developments that have altered our outlook on the future of work. These forces are already changing the longstanding social contract of the employer-worker relationship, and as a result, it is also changing what it means to be a strong leader.

The Gray Rhinos in the herd

AI isn’t the only technology in town

AI, coupled with other technologies, such as automation, quantum computing, and robots, is what is making future disruption unavoidable. The exponential growth of computing power and declining costs have not shown signs of a significant slowdown in nearly six decades. This growth in computing power has led to the widespread deployment of 5G, high-speed internet, and enabling a growing suite of digital collaborative tools that continue to disrupt how knowledge work is done. While AI may be the biggest Gray Rhino in the herd, it's not the only one, making it easy to overlook the other digital tools that are rapidly advancing alongside it.

Distributed work gets easier with AI

AI-powered digital collaboration tools are fueling distributed team models at scale. Companies today are even working to apply and adopt their own sophisticated technologies for remote collaboration and project management. These new ways of working serve as a talent attraction and retention lever, enabling leaders to find the best talent regardless of location.

A new generation of workers who only know of an AI-powered world

Gen Z brings new values and expectations to the workplace due to their digital-savvy upbringing. Existing research suggests this generation is more individualistic than their predecessors, moved by a heightened sense of self, personal accomplishment, and fulfillment.

As a result, this generation expects employers to allow remote work, flexible work hours, and grant other reasonable accommodations. Many will likely become nomadic workers, moving from project to project based on interest, need, and other considerations. As this trend gains power and popularity among workers, the most skilled professionals will gain leverage in the labor force and work how they want.

Declining purchasing power fuels demand for multiple jobs

According to the International Labour Organization, real-wage decline became a global problem post-pandemic. Globally, employees lost six weeks of wages during the COVID-19 pandemic, and post-pandemic inflation is further eroding purchasing power. This decline in the purchasing power of wages is giving rise to the need for a second job to supplement income. This trend will continue to push the relationship between workers and employers from a one-to-one relationship to a one-to-many relationship. And as AI advances, matching one’s skills to multiple jobs will get easier.

GenAI will fuel a higher velocity of business execution
All experts in our research agree that algorithms backed by ever-increasing computing power will perform tasks faster and more efficiently than ever, unleashing a new leap in productivity after years of quasi-stagnation following the dot.com boom of the late 1990s. AI and data analytics will speed up the processes they are applied to–whether it is producing computer code, creating content, matching workers’ skills to job requirements, or optimizing tasks in an organization. As a result, the velocity of execution in business will increase significantly, making it imperative for organizations and workers to adapt. AI‘s capacity for automation, data analysis, real-time insights, and predictive capabilities will make businesses smaller, faster, and more agile than ever before.

Staying ahead of the herd

While the idea of a herd of rhinos descending on a business may sound threatening, spotting it early presents a huge opportunity. The Upwork Research Institute surprisingly found that 36% of leaders did not believe generative AI would disrupt their workforce. Another 12% were unsure and may delay acting until more information is available. Meanwhile, 52% saw generative AI as disrupting the workforce and beginning to plot a course of action. Being ahead of the curve and in the action stage for an impending event can ensure the success of individuals, teams, and organizations by giving them a lasting competitive advantage in their respective industries and marketplaces.

To take advantage of this opportunity, businesses must embrace new capabilities and attributes for themselves and their workforce to step out in front. The large-scale upskilling (training in additional skills to do a given job better) and reskilling (training for an entirely new job) that must take place to develop an effective workforce of human and AI partners will require an unprecedented degree of agility and creativity from today’s organizations. It mandates we shift our traditional thinking about workforce design, models, and systems. Various strategies can drive this transformation, but the boldness to act is the first step.

Kelly Monahan, Ph.D., is the managing director and head of the Upwork Research Institute and the author of How behavioral economics influences management decision-making: A new paradigm.

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