The Ashes weather: Rain threatens England hopes of victory in Manchester

England’s hopes of levelling the Ashes against Australia rest on the weather surrounding the Manchester area.

The forecast suggests plenty of rain at Old Trafford over the weekend as Ben Stokes’ side push for victory on days four and five.

Australia, meanwhile, know a draw here, given they are 2-1 up in the series, will see them retain the Ashes as holders heading back to London for the fifth and final Test at the Oval.

• FOLLOW LIVE - The Ashes: England vs Australia score and latest updates in fourth Test at Old Trafford

Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum opted to extend their first innings lead as Jonny Bairstow accelerated the scoring with a fine 99 not out.

But that decision limits the amount of time England have to take 10 second-innings wickets to win at Old Trafford.

The BBC’s weather forecast for day four on Saturday has a 90 percent chance of rain almost throughout the entire day, with temperatures of 14-16 degrees.

England may have to hope for brighter spells on Sunday to secure the final six wickets then.

But day five, tomorrow, is not much better, despite warmer temperatures of 16-17 degrees, as there is still a 70 percent chance of rain throughout the day.

There is more optimism for England across other forecasts, such as the Met Office, which has a dry spell expected from about 2pm today on day four, but only for an hour or two.

While the Met Office expect just a 50 percent chance of rain tomorrow on day five.

AccuWeather has a 99 percent chance of rain today, although that drops to 86 percent in the afternoon and a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in Manchester.

Tomorrow's outlook from AccuWeather is better though, with intervals of clouds and sun with a couple of showers, although there is a 92 percent chance of rain. But the total hours of precipitation drops from six hours on Saturday to just four hours on Sunday.

All of this is to say that this match could go to the wire.