An area of disturbed weather over the central Atlantic Ocean may become the basin’s next named system before passing close to Bermuda with rough surf next week.
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms located roughly 950 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands is the feature of interest.
This system will be within favorable conditions for subtropical or tropical development later Friday and this weekend, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
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Warm water and relatively low wind shear in the system’s environment are both conducive to strengthening.
Wind shear is the changing of speed and direction of winds at different layers of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can prevent a tropical storm from forming.
The next tropical or subtropical storm in the Atlantic basin will be given the name Oscar.
“The system will be no threat to land through the weekend, but it could pass very close to Bermuda around Tuesday of next week,” Kottlowski said.
The brewing tropical storm will wander northward through Friday before changing its course this weekend.
An area of high pressure to the northeast of the Azores will be the guiding force of this system, according to Kottlowski.
The clockwise flow of air around the high will guide the system to the west or even southwest this weekend and then to the north and northeast early next week.
How far west the storm tracks before making the turn into the North Atlantic will determine the extent of impacts in Bermuda.
A slower turn to the north could result in wind and rain from the system brushing the island. A faster turn to the north would keep the rain and wind out to sea—a scenario which AccuWeather meteorologists are favoring.
Regardless, rough surf propagating outward from the system will reach the eastern-facing beaches of Bermuda late this weekend and continue to pound the coast into early next week, creating dangers for bathers and operators of small craft.
There can also be a slight uptick in wave action along the northeast-facing beaches of the northern Caribbean islands late this weekend and early next week.
Shipping and cruise interests will want to monitor the progress of the storm and change course if necessary.
Coastal concerns not related to brewing Oscar, but rather from a nor’easter, will mount along the United States East Coast from Friday to Saturday.
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There are no immediate concerns for additional tropical development in the wake of brewing Oscar.
The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.