'There is still more of hurricane season to go': Expert warns another tropical threat may make US landfall

Even though the tropical Atlantic is void of organized storms at this time, conditions may again get busy over the next couple of weeks with a few areas of potential development.

Sept. 10 marked the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from a climatology standpoint. However, hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30. The coming weeks into mid-October often bring several additional tropical storms and hurricanes. This year may not be any exception.

AccuWeather long-range tropical meteorologists, led by Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, are projecting two to four more tropical storms, of which one or two may become hurricanes, following Tropical Storm Joyce.

Static Rest of Atlantic Hurricane Season Sep 20

There have been 10 tropical storms, of which five became hurricanes. Three named systems, Alberto, Florence and Gordon, made landfall in the United States.

Thus far, Florence has been the only major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in the basin.

AccuWeather originally predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, six to eight hurricanes and three to four named-storm landfalls back on April 2. Due to a potential El Niño, the numbers were lowered slightly during mid-summer to 10 to 12 tropical storms and five to six hurricanes.

"There are several things we look at that include the current conditions, the status of El Niño and another cycle that tracks rising air over the tropics," Kottlowski said.

El Niño is the warm phase of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. When El Niño is going strong, air is rising and promoting a great deal of tropical activity over the Pacific. At the same time, westerly winds tend to blast from North America through much of the Atlantic basin. These strong winds tend to suppress tropical activity over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the western part of the Atlantic Ocean.

"The anticipated El Niño for this upcoming fall and winter has been lagging, and we are still technically in a neutral phase," Kottlowski said.

See more related to hurricane season:

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Destruction caused by Hurricane Florence
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Destruction caused by Hurricane Florence
NEW BERN, NC - SEPTEMBER 14: Neighborhoods are flooded after the storm surge from Hurricane Florence flooded the Neuse River September 14, 2018 in New Bern, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 1 storm and flooding from the heavy rain is forcing hundreds of people to call for emergency rescues in the area around New Bern, North Carolina, which sits at the confluence of the Nueces and Trent rivers. The storm has since been downgraded to a tropical storm. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
NEW BERN, NC - SEPTEMBER 14: Homes are flooded after a storm surge from Hurricane Florence flooded the Neuse River September 14, 2018 in New Bern, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 1 storm and flooding from the heavy rain is forcing hundreds of people to call for emergency rescues in the area around New Bern, North Carolina, which sits at the confluence of the Nueces and Trent rivers. The storm has since been downgraded to a tropical storm. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
NEW BERN, NC - SEPTEMBER 14: Volunteers from all over North Carolina help rescue residents and their pets from their flooded homes during Hurricane Florence September 14, 2018 in New Bern, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 1 storm and flooding from the heavy rain is forcing hundreds of people to call for emergency rescues in the area around New Bern, North Carolina, which sits at the confluence of the Nuese and Trent rivers. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
An abandoned mini van sits on a flooded road near New Bern, NC on September 14, 2018 during Hurricane Florence. - Florence smashed into the US East Coast Friday with howling winds, torrential rains and life-threatening storm surges as emergency crews scrambled to rescue hundreds of people stranded in their homes by flood waters. Forecasters warned of catastrophic flooding and other mayhem from the monster storm, which is only Category 1 but physically sprawling and dangerous. (Photo by Logan Cyrus / AFP) (Photo credit should read LOGAN CYRUS/AFP/Getty Images)
Debris lies on the ground at a Royal Dutch Shell Plc gas station damaged during Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina, U.S., on Friday, Sept. 14, 2018. Bloomberg Hurricane Florence�is delivering driving wind, pelting rain and torrential flooding to North Carolina, killing at least two people as it grinds through the region. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images
A fallen tree lies in front of a home during Hurricane Florence in downtown Wilmington, North Carolina, U.S., on Friday, Sept. 14, 2018. Bloomberg Hurricane Florence�is delivering driving wind, pelting rain and torrential flooding to North Carolina, killing at least two people as it grinds through the region. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images
A fallen tree lies in front of a home during Hurricane Florence in downtown Wilmington, North Carolina, U.S., on Friday, Sept. 14, 2018. Bloomberg Hurricane Florence�is delivering driving wind, pelting rain and torrential flooding to North Carolina, killing at least two people as it grinds through the region. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Residents walk along a street blocked by a fallen tree during Hurricane Florence in downtown Wilmington, North Carolina, U.S., on Friday, Sept. 14, 2018. Bloomberg Hurricane Florence�is delivering driving wind, pelting rain and torrential flooding to North Carolina, killing at least two people as it grinds through the region. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images
NEW BERN, NC - SEPTEMBER 14: Neighborhoods are flooded after the storm surge from Hurricane Florence flooded the Neuse River September 14, 2018 in New Bern, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 1 storm and flooding from the heavy rain is forcing hundreds of people to call for emergency rescues in the area around New Bern, North Carolina, which sits at the confluence of the Nueces and Trent rivers. The storm has since been downgraded to a tropical storm. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
A house is seen destroyed from falling trees as hurricane Florence passes over in Wilmington, North Carolina on September 14, 2018. - Florence smashed into the US East Coast Friday with howling winds, torrential rains and life-threatening storm surges as emergency crews scrambled to rescue hundreds of people stranded in their homes by flood waters. Forecasters warned of catastrophic flooding and other mayhem from the monster storm, which is only Category 1 but physically sprawling and dangerous. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Photo credit should read ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/Getty Images)
A downed tree can be seen on Middle Street by the Neuse River in New Bern, North Carolina, September 14, 2018 during Hurricane Florence. - Florence smashed into the US East Coast Friday with howling winds, torrential rains and life-threatening storm surges as emergency crews scrambled to rescue hundreds of people stranded in their homes by flood waters. Forecasters warned of catastrophic flooding and other mayhem from the monster storm, which is only Category 1 but physically sprawling and dangerous. (Photo by Logan Cyrus / AFP) (Photo credit should read LOGAN CYRUS/AFP/Getty Images)
TOPSHOT - A father and daughter learn that friends were injured and later died when a tree fell on their house during landfall of Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina on September 14, 2018. - A mother and her infant were killed when a tree fell on their house in Wilmington, North Carolina, the first reported fatalities from Hurricane Florence, police said Friday. Wilmington police tweeted that the father was transported to the hospital with unspecified injuries. Hurricane Florence made landfall near Wilmington on Friday morning, battering the coastal city with strong winds and torrential rain. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Photo credit should read ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/Getty Images)
WILMINGTON, NC- SEPTEMBER 14: An unidentified women reacts to news of a home that a large tree fell on with three trapped after Hurricane Florence hit the area, on September 14, 2018 in Wilmington, North Carolina. One man was taken out of the home in critical condition. Hurricane Florence hit Wilmington as a category 1 storm causing widespread damage and flooding along the Carolina coastline. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Flood waters from the Trent River inundate a park in Pollocksville, North Carolina on September 14, 2018 during Hurricane Florence. - Florence smashed into the US East Coast Friday with howling winds, torrential rains and life-threatening storm surges as emergency crews scrambled to rescue hundreds of people stranded in their homes by flood waters. Forecasters warned of catastrophic flooding and other mayhem from the monster storm, which is only Category 1 but physically sprawling and dangerous. (Photo by Logan Cyrus / AFP) (Photo credit should read LOGAN CYRUS/AFP/Getty Images)
A vehicle sits submerged in floodwaters due to Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina, U.S., on Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. Florences�plodding pace and catastrophic flooding could produce as much as $20 billion in damage and has already caused at least six deaths, even as it has weakened to a tropical storm. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images
WILMINGTON, NC - SEPTEMBER 15: Mike Pollack searches for a drain in the yard of his flooded waterfront home a day after Hurricane Florence hit the area, on September 15, 2018 in Wilmington, North Carolina. Hurricane Florence made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 1 storm Friday and at least five deaths have been attributed to the storm, which continues to produce heavy rain and strong winds extending out nearly 200 miles. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Debris lies on the ground at a Royal Dutch Shell Plc gas station damaged during Hurricane Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina, U.S., on Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. Florences�plodding pace and catastrophic flooding could produce as much as $20 billion in damage and has already caused at least six deaths, even as it has weakened to a tropical storm. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Flood waters lap at a high water warning sign that was partially pushed over by Hurricane Florence on Oak Island, North Carolina, U.S., September 15, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Drake
An abandoned car's hazard lights continue to flash as it sits submerged in a rising flood waters during pre-dawn hours after Hurricane Florence struck in Wilmington, North Carolina, U.S., September 15, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Drake TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
A street light is downed on a flooded road as Hurricane Florence comes ashore on Wilmington, North Carolina, U.S., September 14, 2018. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
Water from the Neuse river floods the streets during the passing of Hurricane Florence in the town of New Bern, North Carolina, U.S., September 14, 2018. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
The Union Point Park Complex is seen flooded as the Hurricane Florence comes ashore in New Bern, North Carolina, U.S., September 13, 2018. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
A downed tree rests on a house during the passing of Hurricane Florence in the town of Wilson, North Carolina, U.S. September 14, 2018. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
A downed tree rests on a house during the passing of Hurricane Florence in the town of Wilson, North Carolina, U.S., September 14, 2018. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
Boats pushed away from the dock are seen on a street during the passing of Hurricane Florence in the town of New Bern, North Carolina, U.S., September 14, 2018. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
Rescue personnel use a small transport a flood victim and her animals to dry land from heavy rains from Florence, now a tropical storm, in New Bern, NC., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
A sailboat is shoved up against a house and a collapsed garage Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018, after heavy wind and rain from Florence, now a tropical storm, blew through New Bern, N.C. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
A pickup truck drives on a flooded road past a farm house that is surrounded by flooded fields from tropical storm Florence in Hyde County, NC., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
A downed tree uprooted by Hurricane Florence lies next to homes in New Bern, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
A member of the U.S. Coast Guard walks down Mill Creek Road checking houses after tropical storm Florence hit Newport N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/Tom Copeland)
A member of the U.S. Coast Guard walks down Mill Creek Road checking houses after tropical storm Florence hit Newport N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/Tom Copeland)
A 40-foot yacht lies in the yard of a storm-damaged home on East Front Street in New Bern, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. The boat washed up with storm surge and debris from Hurricane Florence. (Gray Whitley/Sun Journal via AP)
Resident Joseph Eudi looks at flood debris and storm damage from Hurricane Florence at a home on East Front Street in New Bern, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (Gray Whitley/Sun Journal via AP)
FILE - This Feb. 19, 2014 file photo shows the L.V. Sutton Complex operated by Duke Energy from the Sutton Lake landing in Wilmington, N.C. Duke Energy says heavy rains from Florence have caused a slope to collapse at a coal ash landfill at a closed power station near the North Carolina coast. Duke spokeswoman Paige Sheehan said Saturday night, Sept. 15, 2018, that about 2,000 cubic yards of ash have been displaced at the L. V. Sutton Power Station outside Wilmington. (AP Photo/Randall Hill, File)
FILE - In this Tuesday afternoon, Sept. 12, 2018 file photo provided by DroneBase, an aerial view of the Cape Fear River, N.C., in Buckhorn, N.C. is shown ahead of Hurricane Florence. Record flooding is expected on North Carolina's Cape Fear River in the coming week, and signs of the coming flood are already apparent. The Cape Fear River is predicted to crest at 62 feet (nearly 19 meters) in Fayetteville on Tuesday, Sept. 18. (DroneBase via AP, File)
FILE - In this Thursday, Sept. 13, 2018 file photo, a man jogs down the boardwalk by the Cape Fear River in downtown Wilmington, N.C., as Hurricane Florence threatens the coast. Record flooding is expected on Cape Fear River in the coming week, and signs of the coming flood are already apparent. The Cape Fear River is predicted to crest at 62 feet (nearly 19 meters) in Fayetteville on Tuesday, Sept. 18. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)
FILE - In this Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2018 file photo, Joe Gore, left, and Joshua Adcock prepare for Hurricane Florence as they board up windows on a home in Emerald Isle N.C. Before and after a hurricane, Ace is the place. And Home Depot, Lowe’s, and many other hardware and building supply outlets. Not surprisingly, these companies plan for storms such as Hurricane Florence all year. (AP Photo/Tom Copeland, File)
Residents of an assisted living facility are evacuated to a church as a precaution against potential flooding the city could see from tropical storm Florence in Fayetteville, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. After blowing ashore as a hurricane with 90 mph (145 kph) winds, Florence virtually parked itself much of the weekend atop the Carolinas as it pulled warm water from the ocean and hurled it onshore. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Members of the Nebraska Task Force 1 urban search and rescue team help load an elderly resident onto a bus as they evacuate an assisted living facility to a church as a precaution against potential flooding the city could see from tropical storm Florence in Fayetteville, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Ernestine Crumpler, 80, is helped by members of the Nebraska Task Force 1 urban search and rescue team as they evacuate an assisted living facility to a church as a precaution against potential flooding the city could see from tropical storm Florence in Fayetteville, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Residents of an assisted living facility sit on a bus as they are evacuated to a church as a precaution against potential flooding the city could see from tropical storm Florence in Fayetteville, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Members of the Nebraska Task Force 1 urban search and rescue team help load an elderly resident onto a bus as they evacuate an assisted living facility to a church as a precaution against potential flooding the city could see from tropical storm Florence in Fayetteville, N.C., Saturday, Sept. 15, 2018. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
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"That's one reason why we saw the flurry of tropical storms and hurricanes in the past couple of weeks in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. The delay in El Niño was a caveat we mentioned during the initial hurricane forecast and a midsummer update."

Another parameter tracks a slow-moving wave of rising air, which can lead to storms that can develop tropically when over warm water and under the right conditions. It moves west to east around the equator. That parameter is known as the Madden-Jullian Oscillation, or MJO for short.

"The MJO is forecast to be in a phase that favors rising air over the Atlantic basin starting next week," Kottlowski said.

The rising air in the absence of disruptive winds may allow another flurry of tropical activity during the latter part of September to early October.

AccuWeather long-range meteorologists still believe that El Niño will ramp up this autumn.

"If El Niño does what our long-range team thinks, increasing westerly winds from North America will tend to break across the Atlantic and really shut down the hurricane season later in October and November," Kottlowski said.

"Even so, there is the chance for one more direct impact by a tropical storm or hurricane on the United States for the rest of the season," he said.

Are there immediate tropical concerns?

What was Isaac has been ripped apart by disruptive winds over the western Caribbean. While this feature is not expected to develop, its moisture, along with a former tropical depression from the eastern Pacific, may enhance downpours in parts of Texas and the southern Plains this weekend.

"In the near term, there are three features AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring for potential tropical storm formation through the end of September," Kottlowski said.

Static Atlantic Snapshot Sep 20

One system is located over the middle of the North Atlantic and contains some of the old moisture from Florence.

While the circulation from Florence has expired in this area, some of its original moisture may spawn a tropical storm and perhaps a hurricane during the last week of September. The rest of Florence's old moisture is forecast to pester the British Isles this weekend with rain and wind.

Farther south, a tropical disturbance, or tropical wave, has a slight chance of organizing east of the Leeward and Windward islands in the Caribbean over the next few days. However, if that system approaching the Caribbean waits too long to take shape, disruptive winds near the Caribbean may tear the disturbance apart.

Meanwhile, a new tropical wave has just emerged from Africa and is forecast to move westward.

This latest tropical wave may move on a general westward path over the next week.

"If this latest tropical wave stays south of a zone of disruptive winds, it may develop and could approach the Windward and Leeward islands later next week," Kottlowski said.

"So, even though we are over the hump, in terms of the average peak of hurricane season, there is still more of hurricane season to go," Kottlowski said.

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