90-degree heat to bake Midwest, Northeast prior to cooler, wetter pattern for July's 2nd half

Hot weather will build across the Northeast and parts of the Midwest centered on this weekend, before higher humidity levels lead to cooler conditions and perhaps a risk of isolated flooding for July's second half.

The period from July 3 to Aug. 11 is often referred to as the "dog days of summer" and typically brings some of the hottest weather of the year. The term has ancient origins related to the dog star, Sirius, and its position in the sky.

Dog Days

A marginal heat wave in store

Temperatures will trend upward into this weekend. Heat will hover into early next week.

"Although common for the middle of July, highs will generally range from the upper 80s to the middle 90s F," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

Static Heat Builds Midwest Northeast

"At this level, temperatures will actually be a few degrees above average," Pastelok said.

In the Northern states, a heat wave is referred to as three or more days with high temperatures of 90 or above.

While this heat wave will not be a potent as that of early July, intense sunshine will still make it feel hotter than the actual temperature by about 10 degrees during the late morning and afternoon hours.

The weather will be great for swimming, picnics, festivals and ballgames. But be sure to use sunscreen, stay hydrated and take breaks from the sun and the heat.

Those heading to the Atlantic beaches should heed advisories for the surf as there may be an elevated risk of rip currents, depending on the strength of Beryl which will be a few hundred miles offshore.

Summer weather across the US in 2018
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Summer weather across the US in 2018
NEWPORT BEACH, CA - AUGUST 17: A man and his nephew enjoy the warm water at Salt Creek Beach in Dana Point on Friday, August 17, 2018. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 17: People cool themselves during a warm day at Central Park on August 17, 2018 in New York City. Severe thunderstorms and even an isolated tornado could strike New York City on Friday. (Photo by Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images)
WEEHAWKEN, NJ - AUGUST 17: A man takes a look of the haze over the New York skyline and One World Trade Center on August 17, 2018 in Weehawken, New Jersey. Severe thunderstorms and even an isolated tornado could strike New York City on Friday. (Photo by Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images
NEWPORT BEACH, CA - AUGUST 10: A surfer loses it on a wave in Newport Beach on Friday, August 10, 2018. A swell from Hurricane John will bring larger waves to south-facing beaches through the weekend. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
A man sunbathes on Venice Beach in Los Angeles, California on August 7, 2018. Temperatures climbed to near 100 degrees as a week-long heat wave continues in Southern California. (Photo by Ronen Tivony/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
WELLFLEET, MA - JUNE 21: Mark Wilke and his wife Sharon enjoy the first day of summer at White Crest Beach in Wellfleet, MA on June 21, 2018. (Photo by Craig F. Walker/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, VA - JUNE 20: A pedestrian passes near the Netherlands Carillon as the Washington Monument and United States Capitol are seen at sunrise on Wednesday June 20, 2018 in Arlington, VA. The summer solstice is Thursday. (Photo by Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Pedestrians watch sailboats and windsurfers on the Charles River on the summer solstice in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., June 21, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
A women keeps in the shade of her umbrella as she tries to beat the heat at Cardiff State beach in Encinitas, California, U.S. July 6, 2018. REUTERS/Mike Blake
A man cools off in fountain on the Rose Kennedy Greenway during a summer heat wave in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., July 2, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
OLD ORCHARD BEACH, ME - JULY 4: Ryan Parsons, left, of Unity watches as his daughter, Lily, 10, rides the waves on her inflatable whale at Old Orchard Beach on a hot, beautiful Fourth of July. The Parson family was spending the day at the beach keeping cool and watching the fireworks. (Staff photo by Jill Brady/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
NEW JERSEY, USA - JUNE 30: People enjoy Manhattan skyline at the Hamilton Park during the hot weather in New Jersey, United States on June 30, 2018. (Photo by Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, July 2, 2018 -- People cool themselves at a fountain at Washington Square Park in New York City, the United States, on July 2, 2018. The highest temperature reached 35 degrees Celsius in New York City on Monday as a result of a prolonged heat wave. (Xinhua/Wang Ying via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, USA - JULY 23: Rain clouds are seen over Lower Manhattan in New York, United States on July 23, 2018. (Photo by Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
NEW JERSEY, USA - JULY 27: People walk with their umbrellas during a rainy day at the Liberty State Park in New Jersey, United States on July 27, 2018. (Photo by Atlgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

Cooler, wetter days are ahead

"After the episode of heat, a change in the pattern is expected as weather systems are likely to get jammed up from the Atlantic westward to North America," Pastelok said.

"We expect a dip in the jet stream to develop and be centered over the Midwest."

In this position, frequent waves of cool air are likely to invade a large part of the North Central states.

While the bulk of the cool air would stop short of reaching the Atlantic seaboard in this case, daytime highs are likely to be several degrees lower, when compared to this weekend due to high humidity levels.

The higher humidity would ultimately lead to more clouds and rounds of showers and thunderstorms that take the edge off daytime highs.

"Beyond early next week, much of the second half of July may bring near- to below-average temperatures in the East and below-average temperatures over a large part of the Midwest and northern Plains," Pastelok said.

Static US Late July

Even in such a pattern, most days will bring highs well into the 80s in the Interstate-95 corridor and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the Appalachians and much of the Midwest.

"And within that pattern, there will still be some very warm days," Pastelok said.

At this level, temperatures will still be high enough for swimming, short sleeves and most outdoor activities.

However, patterns such as this can lead to localized heavy rainfall.

"We will have to be on guard for isolated flooding in a pattern such as anticipated next week and beyond," according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams.

The anticipated atmospheric road block over the Atlantic may set up a corridor of frequent showers and thunderstorms somewhere in parts of the East Coast, Appalachians or Midwest.

"There is no way to say for sure or exactly where that will be this far out," Abrams said. "But, the potential is there."

People with outdoor plans and construction activities may have to pick and choose the drier days or parts of the day for outdoor plans as the pattern evolves.

Typically, most showers and thunderstorm activity in the summer occurs from the mid-afternoon to the mid-evening hours. However, as is often the case with the weather, there are likely to be exceptions.

Is summer over after early next week?

While the cooler weather pattern may have some staying power into early August, it cannot be stated that the heat wave into early next will be the last of this summer.

"We still expect plenty of typical hot weather to go around during August," Pastelok said.

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