Waters off US East Coast may give birth to next tropical storm west of Bermuda

While there is no direct threat to land, nearby Atlantic waters off the East Coast of the United States may give birth to the next tropical depression or storm of the 2018 hurricane season over the next few days.

"We are monitoring an area of disturbed weather a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda at this time," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Vido.

The potential formation zone is close to the Gulf Stream, which is a continuous current of warm water that originates from the tropics. Waters along much of the Atlantic seaboard are much above average for this time of the year.

Static Near Shore Atlantic Tropics

"As this disturbance drifts westward, it may enter a zone of low wind shear and begin to develop some spin late this week," Vido said.

Wind shear is the change in wind direction and increase in speed at different layers of the atmosphere. A tropical storm is more likely to form in a low wind shear zone, rather than a high wind shear zone.

Steering winds are likely to increase, pick up the feature and pull it northward early this weekend. Later this weekend into next week, these steering winds will guild the feature northeastward.

"The only way this feature would impact the U.S. is if it became well-organized, such as a strong tropical storm," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

A strong tropical storm might produce enough winds to generate rough seas and surf along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, as well as Bermuda, while a poorly organized feature would not.

"If there is going to be a period of moderate to rough surf, it would be this weekend," Pydynowski stated.

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Summer weather across the US in 2018
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Summer weather across the US in 2018
WELLFLEET, MA - JUNE 21: Mark Wilke and his wife Sharon enjoy the first day of summer at White Crest Beach in Wellfleet, MA on June 21, 2018. (Photo by Craig F. Walker/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, VA - JUNE 20: A pedestrian passes near the Netherlands Carillon as the Washington Monument and United States Capitol are seen at sunrise on Wednesday June 20, 2018 in Arlington, VA. The summer solstice is Thursday. (Photo by Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Pedestrians watch sailboats and windsurfers on the Charles River on the summer solstice in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., June 21, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
A women keeps in the shade of her umbrella as she tries to beat the heat at Cardiff State beach in Encinitas, California, U.S. July 6, 2018. REUTERS/Mike Blake
A man cools off in fountain on the Rose Kennedy Greenway during a summer heat wave in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., July 2, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
OLD ORCHARD BEACH, ME - JULY 4: Ryan Parsons, left, of Unity watches as his daughter, Lily, 10, rides the waves on her inflatable whale at Old Orchard Beach on a hot, beautiful Fourth of July. The Parson family was spending the day at the beach keeping cool and watching the fireworks. (Staff photo by Jill Brady/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
NEW JERSEY, USA - JUNE 30: People enjoy Manhattan skyline at the Hamilton Park during the hot weather in New Jersey, United States on June 30, 2018. (Photo by Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, July 2, 2018 -- People cool themselves at a fountain at Washington Square Park in New York City, the United States, on July 2, 2018. The highest temperature reached 35 degrees Celsius in New York City on Monday as a result of a prolonged heat wave. (Xinhua/Wang Ying via Getty Images)
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The nearshore Atlantic feature may pass close enough to southeastern Newfoundland to bring part of the Canadian province a period of drenching rain, gusty winds and rough seas on Tuesday, before diminishing over colder waters.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic basin, conditions remain rather hostile for tropical development.

"There is another area of disturbed weather over the south-central Atlantic, but it is surrounded by dry air and is over cooler-than-average waters," Vido said.

Static Atlantic Loop 8:45 am Wed

This loop captured on Wednesday morning, July 4, 2018, shows much of the Atlantic basin, including the Gulf of Mexico in the upper left and the Caribbean Sea left of center. Two features are under investigation at this time. One is several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the other is over the south-central Atlantic in the lower left of the image. (GOES-E/NOAA)

 

"If that feature could somehow organize into a tropical depression or storm, it would likely encounter much greater wind shear farther west near the Leeward and Windward islands as well as over the Caribbean Sea," Pydynowski added.

Disturbances will also continue to push westward from the Atlantic to the northern shore of the Gulf of Mexico.

While these features are expected to remain too close to land to develop, they will produce rounds of drenching rain across the Deep South into this weekend.

The next names on the list of tropical storms for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season are Beryl and Chris.

Following Tropical Storm Alberto, which developed during Memorial Day weekend, there were no tropical storms over the Atlantic basin during June.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Dan Kottlowski has lowered the original forecast of named storms for 2018, but this does not imply there cannot be high-impact hurricanes later in the season.

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