Downpours to threaten flooding in Texas, Louisiana as potential tropical system brews in Gulf

Regardless of whether or not a tropical storm forms in the western Gulf of Mexico to end this week, tropical downpours may lead to flooding and travel problems in parts of Texas and Louisiana this weekend to early next week.

A plume of showers and thunderstorms that began to brew over the western Caribbean last weekend is forecast to migrate northwestward into this weekend.

What's the latest on the Gulf tropical potential?

As this area of disturbed weather enters the western part of the Gulf of Mexico, conditions may allow the moisture to organize into a tropical depression or storm.

The odds are greatly against rapid development and strengthening of any tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

"Instead, it looks like a broad area of disturbed weather is in store with localized heavy rainfall to take aim northeastern Mexico and southern and eastern Texas," Kottlowski said.

Static Tex Mex Tropical Concern

Risk of heavy rainfall, flooding to exist regardless of tropical development

Pinpointing exactly which communities may be hit by the heaviest rainfall may not become apparent until the end of the week. However, enough rain is likely to fall to cause urban and low-lying area flooding.

Motorists in the major metropolitan areas such as Houston, Port Arthur, Victoria, Corpus Christi, Brownsville, San Antonio and Austin, Texas, as well as Lake Charles, Louisiana, should anticipate travel difficulties this weekend.

Motorists are reminded never to drive through flooded roadways as the water may be deeper than it appears and the road surface may have been compromised beneath the water.

Slow-moving tropical downpours have the potential to unload localized rainfall on the order of 6 inches or more where showers and thunderstorms repeat. Should even a tropical depression or weak tropical storm form, rainfall could be even heavier in some communities.

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Severe spring weather across the U.S. in 2018
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Severe spring weather across the U.S. in 2018
NEW YORK, USA - MAY 15:�Rainbow occurs after rain over Manhattan in New York, United States on May 15, 2018. (Photo by Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, USA - MAY 15: People walk over a pedestrian crossing on a rainy day in New York, United States on May 15, 2018. (Photo by Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
Example ballots are caught by sudden winds as a storm system moves in quickly during Primary Election Day, in Philadelphia, PA, on May 15, 2018. (Photo by Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Severe weather builds up over Northwest Philadelphia, PA, on Primary Election Day, May 15, 2018. (Photo by Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, USA - MAY 12: Rain clouds are seen over between Lower Manhattan and Jersey City in New York, United States on May 12, 2018. (Photo by Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
WEEHAWKEN, NJ - MAY 23: A person walks in front of the skyline of lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center on a rainy day in New York City on May 12, 2018 as seen from Weehawken, New Jersey. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 14: The front of a severe thunderstorm passes over the U.S. Capitol, on May 14, 2018 in Washington, DC. The area was hit with heavy rain and high winds from the early evening storm. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Simon Rusen-Morohovich, 19, of Pittsburgh, Pa. skim boards as storm clouds move in over Hollywood Beach, Fla. The National Hurricane Center says bad weather is coming from a stormy cluster over the Gulf and gives it a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days. (Susan Stocker/Sun Sentinel/TNS via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 14: People play sports on the National Mall as the front of a severe thunderstorm approaches, on May 14, 2018 in Washington, DC. The area was hit with heavy rain and high winds from the early evening storm. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 14: People stand under a tree as rain starts to fall as a severe thunderstorm passes over the U.S. Capitol, on May 14, 2018 in Washington, DC. The area was hit with heavy rain and high winds from the early evening storm. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
LAKEWOOD, CO - MAY 14: A man covers himself with his coat as he walks down west Colfax Avenue during a heavy rain and hail storm on May 14, 2018 in Lakewood, Colorado. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
LAKEWOOD, CO - MAY 14: A man covers himself with his coat as he walks down west Colfax Avenue during a heavy rain and hail storm on May 14, 2018 in Lakewood, Colorado. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - MAY 12: Members of the Philadelphia Phillies ground crew roll out the tarp to cover the field due to an incoming storm before the start of a game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on May 12, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images)
HOBOKEN, NJ - MAY 10: Lightning strikes New York City next to Hudson Yards on May 10, 2018 as seen from Hoboken, New Jersey. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, USA - MAY 12: Rain clouds are seen over Lower Manhattan in New York, United States on May 12, 2018. (Photo by Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, USA - APRIL 16: People walk over a pedestrian crossing with their umbrellas on a rainy day in New York, United States on April 16, 2018. (Photo by Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
MADISON, CONNECTICUT -APRIL 6: Snow settles on a daffodil as an April springtime snowfall covered the East Coast of the United States on April 6, 2018 in Madison, Connecticut. (Photo by Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, USA - APRIL 2: Snow covered buildings are seen in Brooklyn borough of New York, United States on April 2, 2018. (Photo by Mohammed Elshamy/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, USA - MARCH 21: A woman stands with her umbrella during a late season snowstorm in Time Square, Manhattan in New York. The fourth nor'easter in three weeks hit the city on March 21, 2018 in New York, United States. (Photo by Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, March 21, 2018: People carrying ski gears walk past the Reflecting Pool in Washington D.C., the United States, on March 21, 2018. A late-season nor'easter, the fourth of its kind in three weeks, is targeting the northeast United States on Wednesday, bringing heavy snow and strong winds to the region. Washington, which is already snow-covered, is expected to see up to 6 inches of snow, as some models suggesting much high totals for the capital. Federal offices are closed for the snowstorm as the White House announced early Wednesday that all public events for the day were cancelled. (Xinhua/Ting Shen via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, March 22, 2018 : Photo taken on March 21, 2018 shows the Statue of Liberty seen in the snow storm in New York, the United States. Thousands of flights were canceled and public schools were closed as the fourth snow storm in three weeks began hitting New York City and its neighboring areas on Wednesday. (Xinhua/Li Muzi via Getty Images)
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While much of the rain may fall on the Father's Day weekend when many people may have outdoor plans, rainfall is needed over much of the region.

Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions exist over much of Louisiana and central and southeastern Texas, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Severe drought exists in some counties of Texas as well.

Movement of the batch of tropical downpours is uncertain beyond this weekend.

On one hand, the rain may be drawn northward across the Plains and part of the Mississippi Valley.

However, another scenario is possible.

"There is a chance the system stalls over southern Texas and northeastern Mexico for several days next week," according to AccuWeather Lead Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker.

Another Harvey is not expected

Even though the area of disturbed weather is originating from the western Caribbean Sea and may organize just off the South Texas coast, a repeat of Harvey is not anticipated with this event, despite the chance of rain farther south and west.

While some heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are likely, this setup will not bring 30-60 inches of rain, like Harvey did.

AccuWeather will continue to provide updates on the progress of the tropical downpours and flood risk, regardless of whether or not a tropical system develops.

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