Trump's troubles in Arizona mount with coronavirus surge

July 8 (Reuters) - Arizona has served as a southwestern bulwark for Republicans for decades, voting for a Democratic presidential candidate only once since 1948.

But a surge of coronavirus cases in the state and President Donald Trump's uneven response to the pandemic have compounded the troubles already facing his re-election bid.

Since Trump won Arizona in 2016, suburban voters in the country's fastest-growing county, Maricopa, have soured on him, the state's Democratic-leaning Latino population has continued growing and transplants from more liberal places have helped Democrats add 60,000 more voters to their rolls than Republicans.

Now the intensifying pandemic – Arizona on Tuesday reported its highest daily total of deaths yet – is endangering Trump's support even among some Republican-leaning voters. Randy Olsen, 65, voted for Trump in 2016, but he plans to support Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the Nov. 3 election.

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States reopen, relax guidelines to prevent coronavirus spread
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States reopen, relax guidelines to prevent coronavirus spread
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 06: An employee wearing a mask cleans the inside of the restaurant, Blue Stripes Cacao Shop as it prepares to reopen for takeaway and delivery orders after being closed for over a month amid the coronavirus pandemic on May 6, 2020 in New York City. Governor Andrew Cuomo made the announcement that all bars and restaurants must close by on March 16th unless it was takeout or delivery. COVID-19 has spread to most countries around the world, claiming over 263,000 lives with over 3.8 million cases. (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 06: An employee wearing a mask cleans the inside of the restaurant, Blue Stripes Cacao Shop as it prepares to reopen for takeaway and delivery orders after being closed for over a month amid the coronavirus pandemic on May 6, 2020 in New York City. Governor Andrew Cuomo made the announcement that all bars and restaurants must close by on March 16th unless it was takeout or delivery. COVID-19 has spread to most countries around the world, claiming over 263,000 lives with over 3.8 million cases. (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
THOUSAND OAKS, CA - MAY 06: A Cadillac Dealership displays a sign stating its reopened during the Coronavirus Pandemic on May 06, 2020 in Thousand Oaks, California. The coronavirus pandemic worldwide has claimed over 263,000 lives and infected over 3.7 million people. (Photo by Josh Lefkowitz/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, May 5, 2020 -- Customers shop at a shopping mall in Frisco, on the outskirts of Dallas, Texas, the United States, May 5, 2020. After closed for several weeks due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, the shopping mall reopened with shortened business hours on Tuesday. (Photo by Dan Tian/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/ via Getty Images)
HOUSTON, May 5, 2020 -- Cars are parked in front of a shopping mall in Frisco, on the outskirts of Dallas, Texas, the United States, May 5, 2020. After closed for several weeks due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, the shopping mall reopened with shortened business hours on Tuesday. (Photo by Dan Tian/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/ via Getty Images)
Dawson Padilla (L), owner of a protein shakes store, works behind the bar on May 5, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. - In the face of intimidation against employees and the threat of an armed attack by local residents wielding their individual liberties, the mayor of Stillwater had to give in: he gave up imposing the wearing of masks on customers in shops. This demand was included in a 21-page document that was supposed to accompany the gradual reopening of restaurants and shops from 1 May, as authorized by the state of Oklahoma. "About three and a half hours after the law came into effect" of the text, "we started receiving calls from stores claiming that employees were being threatened and insulted, and threatened with physical violence," said Norman McNickle, the city's director of services. (Photo by Johannes EISELE / AFP) (Photo by JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)
A worker of the Aspen Cafe wears a mask as she makes coffee on May 5, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. - In the face of intimidation against employees and the threat of an armed attack by local residents wielding their individual liberties, the mayor of Stillwater had to give in: he gave up imposing the wearing of masks on customers in shops. This demand was included in a 21-page document that was supposed to accompany the gradual reopening of restaurants and shops from 1 May, as authorized by the state of Oklahoma. "About three and a half hours after the law came into effect" of the text, "we started receiving calls from stores claiming that employees were being threatened and insulted, and threatened with physical violence," said Norman McNickle, the city's director of services. (Photo by Johannes EISELE / AFP) (Photo by JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)
Kelly Lyda, owner of the Aspen Cafe, stands in his Cafe on May 5, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. - In the face of intimidation against employees and the threat of an armed attack by local residents wielding their individual liberties, the mayor of Stillwater had to give in: he gave up imposing the wearing of masks on customers in shops. This demand was included in a 21-page document that was supposed to accompany the gradual reopening of restaurants and shops from 1 May, as authorized by the state of Oklahoma. "About three and a half hours after the law came into effect" of the text, "we started receiving calls from stores claiming that employees were being threatened and insulted, and threatened with physical violence," said Norman McNickle, the city's director of services. (Photo by Johannes EISELE / AFP) (Photo by JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)
Computer specialist Toby Angel drinks his coffee on May 5, 2020 in Stillwater, Oklahoma. - In the face of intimidation against employees and the threat of an armed attack by local residents wielding their individual liberties, the mayor of Stillwater had to give in: he gave up imposing the wearing of masks on customers in shops. This demand was included in a 21-page document that was supposed to accompany the gradual reopening of restaurants and shops from 1 May, as authorized by the state of Oklahoma. "About three and a half hours after the law came into effect" of the text, "we started receiving calls from stores claiming that employees were being threatened and insulted, and threatened with physical violence," said Norman McNickle, the city's director of services. (Photo by Johannes EISELE / AFP) (Photo by JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)
WESTPORT, CONNECTICUT - MAY 05: A cafe along a shopping street in the affluent community remains mostly empty of pedestrians and open stores on May 05, 2020 in Westport, Connecticut. A growing number of states have begun reopening parts of the economy amid demonstrations like the one yesterday that targeted the Connecticut state capital and the governor's mansion in Hartford. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
WESTPORT, CONNECTICUT - MAY 05: A cafe along a shopping street in the affluent community remains mostly empty of pedestrians and open stores on May 05, 2020 in Westport, Connecticut. A growing number of states have begun reopening parts of the economy amid demonstrations like the one yesterday that targeted the Connecticut state capital and the governor's mansion in Hartford. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
LAGUNA HILLS, CA - MAY 05: Customers maintain safety protocols at The BarberHood in Laguna Hills, CA, on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The shop is one of the first to re-open and defy the state"u2019s stay-at-home order during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) lockdown. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
SAN CLEMENTE, CA - MAY 05: Visitors walk on the beach south of the pier in San Clemente, CA on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The city opened its beaches for daily active use after coordinating with Gov. Gavin Newsom"u2019s office to maintain social distancing during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) lockdown. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
SAN CLEMENTE, CA - MAY 05: Surfers were back on the waves at T Street in San Clemente, CA on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The city opened its beaches for daily active use after coordinating with Gov. Gavin Newsom"u2019s office to maintain social distancing during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) lockdown. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
KENMORE, WA - MAY 05: Lynette Fisher-Charles and her dog Gracie, a two-year-old springer spaniel, go for a hike in Saint Edward State Park on May 5, 2020 in Kenmore, Washington. The first phase to reopen the state begins today easing some restrictions including opening some parks, that were put in place during Governor Jay Inslees Stay Home, Stay Healthy order last March to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. Kenmore, WA is located northeast of Seattle. (Photo by Karen Ducey/Getty Images)
KENMORE, WA - MAY 05: Daryl Kline, a park ranger at Saint Edward State Park removes a sign saying the park is closed on May 5, 2020 in Kenmore, Washington. The first phase to reopen the state begins today easing some restrictions that were put in place during Governor Jay Inslees Stay Home, Stay Healthy order last March to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. Kenmore, WA is located northeast of Seattle. (Photo by Karen Ducey/Getty Images)
LAGUNA BEACH, CA - MAY 05: Lifeguards keep a lookout at Laguna Beach, CA after officials reopened access to the sand on Tuesday, May 5, 2020. The beach has been closed since March 23, 2020 due to the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak. City parks along the beach are still closed and people cannot sit or linger on the sand. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, May 4, 2020 -- Photo taken on May 4, 2020 shows Times Square in New York, the United States. Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, New York Governnor Andrew Cuomo on Monday outlined additional guidelines regarding when regions can reopen. According to the Governor's Press Office, the state will monitor four core factors to determine if a region can reopen: number of new infections, health care capacity, diagnostic testing capacity and contact tracing capacity. (Photo by Wang Ying/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/Wang Ying via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, May 4, 2020 -- A worker cleans a cafe's signboard at Times Square in New York, the United States, May 4, 2020. Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, New York Governnor Andrew Cuomo on Monday outlined additional guidelines regarding when regions can reopen. According to the Governor's Press Office, the state will monitor four core factors to determine if a region can reopen: number of new infections, health care capacity, diagnostic testing capacity and contact tracing capacity. (Photo by Wang Ying/Xinhua via Getty) (Xinhua/Wang Ying via Getty Images)
ASBURY PARK, NJ - MAY 4: People walk near the closed boardwalk due to the outbreak of COVID-19 in the state on May 4, 2020 in the Jersey Shore in New Jersey. Some towns at Jersey Shore expect the reopening of beaches soon. (Photo by Eduardo MunozAlvarez/VIEWpress/Corbis via Getty Images)
NORTH ANDOVER, MA - MAY 4: Although all golf courses in Massachusetts are still ordered to stay closed by governor Charlie Baker, workers at the North Andover Country Club in North Andover, MA work on the grass on May 4, 2020, getting the course ready for when they eventually are allowed to re-open. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 04: Gov. Gavin Newsom announced select retail businesses will be allowed to reopen starting Friday in California during the coronavirus pandemic on Monday, May 4, 2020 in Los Angeles, CA. (Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
SANFORD, UNITED STATES - MAY 04, 2020: Customers enjoy a meal at Racks Billiards Sports Bar and Grill on the first day that retail stores and restaurants in all Florida counties except Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami Dade were permitted to reopen as COVID-19 restrictions are eased. Under phase one of the plan to reopen the state, stores and restaurants are limited to 25 percent of their indoor capacity.- PHOTOGRAPH BY Paul Hennessy / Echoes Wire/ Barcroft Studios / Future Publishing (Photo credit should read Paul Hennessy / Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)
SANFORD, UNITED STATES - MAY 04, 2020: A customer leaves a Books-A-Million store on the first day that retail stores and restaurants in all Florida counties except Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami Dade were permitted to reopen as COVID-19 restrictions are eased. Under phase one of the plan to reopen the state, stores and restaurants are limited to 25 percent of their indoor capacity.- PHOTOGRAPH BY Paul Hennessy / Echoes Wire/ Barcroft Studios / Future Publishing (Photo credit should read Paul Hennessy / Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)
BOZEMAN, MT - MAY 04: Sales staff wear masks at the reopened Schnee's Boots, Shoes and Outdoors on Main Street on May 4, 2020 in Bozeman, Montana. Wyoming health officials today reported that the state's confirmed coronavirus cases grew by nine to a total of 444. (Photo by William Campbell/Getty Images)
BOZEMAN, MT - MAY 04: Signs for restaurants and stores announce their reopenings on Main Street on May 4, 2020 in Bozeman, Montana. Wyoming health officials today reported that the state's confirmed coronavirus cases grew by nine to a total of 444. (Photo by William Campbell/Getty Images)
JENSEN BEACH, FLORIDA - MAY 04: Cole Hunter carries Harper Hunter, 1, as Holly Hunter,4, follows along as they arrive at the beach on May 04, 2020 in Jensen Beach, Florida. Restaurants, retailers, as well as beaches and some state parks reopened today with caveats, as the state continues to ease restrictions put in place to contain COVID-19. The counties of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami Dade continue to maintain restrictions. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE BEACH, FLORIDA - MAY 04: People are seen dining outside at Cruisers Grill as the state of Florida enters phase one of the plan to reopen the state on May 04, 2020 in Jacksonville Beach, Florida. Restaurants, retailers, beaches and some state parks reopen today with caveats, as the state continues to ease restrictions put in place to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19). (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE BEACH, FLORIDA - MAY 04: People are seen at a department store as the state of Florida enters phase one of the plan to reopen the state on May 04, 2020 in Jacksonville Beach, Florida. Restaurants, retailers, beaches and some state parks reopen today with caveats, as the state continues to ease restrictions put in place to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19). (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
SAINT AUGUSTINE, FLORIDA - MAY 04: A mask is seen on the statue of Henry M. Flagler as the state of Florida enters phase one of the plan to reopen the state on May 04, 2020 in Saint Augustine, Florida. Restaurants, retailers, beaches and some state parks reopen today with caveats, as the state continues to ease restrictions put in place to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19). (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
A man works on power lines in Los Angeles, California on May 4, 2020, amid the coronavirus pandemic. - California governor Gavin Newsom earlier today announced the gradual reopening of the state later this week as dismal US employment figures are expected with the release of figures Friday May 8 for April's US jobs report, as 30 million Americans filed for unemployment in the last six weeks. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)
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"He's disrespecting the experts," Olsen said of Trump's response to the virus, noting his refusal to endorse face masks. "He's looking out for himself only and isn't looking out for anybody else."

Chuck Coughlin, a Republican strategist in Phoenix, said Trump's handling of the crisis was costing him with key demographics in Maricopa County, including older voters and well-educated suburban whites. The county includes more than half the state's population.

"I expect it's very damaging with that portion of the electorate that Trump needs to persuade," Coughlin said.

Since the end of May, Biden, a former vice president, has led in four of five state polls and holds an average advantage of 3-1/2 percentage points in a state Trump carried by the same margin four years ago, according to the poll-tracking website RealClearPolitics.

Trump campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager said the president's record in Washington, plus the large Republican Party field operation in the state compared with Biden's nascent team, would deliver Arizona for Trump again.

Trump chose Phoenix for his first official trip out of Washington after the pandemic in early May and returned two weeks ago. His campaign has more than 70 staffers on the ground and has held more than 2,000 events, Zager said.

But Biden's campaign increasingly views Arizona as a top target, part of a growing national shift in his favor in recent months. Campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon told campaign volunteers that she mentions the state so often it has become a joke among her staff.

"It is a true battleground state for the presidential for the first time," she told a Biden fundraiser two weeks ago.

 

NEW PATHWAYS TO VICTORY

While the trio of historically Democratic Rust Belt states that carried Trump to victory in 2016 – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – continue to garner attention from both parties, polls suggest Sunbelt states like Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and even Georgia have opened new pathways to a Biden victory.

Democrats are confident they can replicate the winning formula of Kyrsten Sinema, who in 2018 became Arizona's first Democratic senator in more than two decades.

Like Sinema, Biden is a moderate who eschews liberal proposals such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal.

Biden could benefit from the popularity and campaign infrastructure of Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly, a former astronaut who has held a double-digit lead in recent surveys in his race against Republican Senator Martha McSally.

In a briefing for reporters in May, O'Malley Dillon said she planned to focus both on increasing turnout and persuading voters who previously voted for Republicans not to support Trump, with a special focus on Latinos and voters under the age of 30.

Strategists in both parties said suburban voters, particularly women, who polls show have shifted away from Trump would determine whether Biden can carry the state.

Other Democrats argue, however, that Arizona's Latino population, which has grown three times as fast as the white population since 2014, is the more crucial voting bloc.

Latino voter turnout rose to 49% in 2018 from 37% in 2008, according to state and federal data compiled by One Arizona, a coalition of 23 organizations focused on Latino civic participation.

Biden has been criticized for not doing more to attract Latino support. But Hispanics' growing disapproval of Trump's performance, which according to Reuters/Ipsos polling increased to 43% in June from 23% in April, could create an opportunity for Biden.

Chuck Rocha, a former adviser to Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign who runs a Latino-focused independent political action committee, Nuestro PAC, said focus-group testing showed the coronavirus was boosting anti-Trump sentiment among Latinos, who have been disproportionately hurt by the pandemic.

The group will launch a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign focused on Arizona in the coming weeks, Rocha said. Priorities USA, a pro-Biden super PAC, is airing Spanish-language ads in Arizona blaming Trump for failing to contain the virus.

"The pandemic has changed the dynamics of everything," said Chad Campbell, a former Democratic state lawmaker. "The fact that Donald Trump is spending time and money here this early on shows you how much trouble he's in." (Reporting by Joseph Ax; Additional reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt, Andrew Hay and Chris Kahn; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Peter Cooney)

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