A federal plan to tackle the coronavirus pandemic warns it 'will last 18 months or longer' and could include 'multiple waves'

  • A federal plan to tackle the coronavirus, seen by The New York Times, warned that the pandemic "will last 18 months or longer" and could include "multiple waves" as it continues to spread.
  • The plan predicts shortages "impacting health care, emergency services, and other elements of critical infrastructure."
  • The plan laid out recommendations for how to curb the coronavirus spread, including shutting schools and canceling events, and it also urged President Donald Trump to invoke the Defense Production Act.
  • The Defense Production Act is a federal law that authorizes the president to "expedite and expand the supply of resources from the US industrial base to support military, energy, space, and homeland security programs."
  • Trump addressed evoking the DPA on Tuesday, telling reporters: "We're able to do that if we have to ... Right now, we haven't had to, but it's certainly ready."
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

A federal plan to tackle the coronavirus, which causes a disease known as COVID-19, warned that the pandemic "will last 18 months or longer" and could include "multiple waves" as it continues to spread, according to The New York Times

The 100-page plan, seen by The Times, was released on Friday and was marked "For Official Use Only // Not For Public Distribution or Release."

"Shortages of products may occur, impacting health care, emergency services, and other elements of critical infrastructure," the plan states. The plan said this could include "potentially critical shortages" of diagnostic capabilities, medical supplies, including personal protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, and staffing in some locations.

It added that state and local governments, along with their critical infrastructure and communication channels, "will be stressed and potentially less reliable."

"These stresses may also increase the challenges of getting updated messages and coordinating guidance to these jurisdictions directly," the plan states, according to The Times.

The plan laid out recommendations for how to curb the coronavirus spread, including shutting schools and canceling events, steps that many states and local governments have already taken

It also urged the president to invoke the Defense Production Act, a federal law put in place in response to start of the Korean War, which authorizes the president to "expedite and expand the supply of resources from the US industrial base to support military, energy, space, and homeland security programs."

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Vice President Mike Pence points to a question as he speaks during a briefing about the coronavirus in the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House, Sunday, March 15, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Tyler Baldwin mops the floor after closing for the night at the Taproom at Pike Place, Sunday, March 15, 2020 where he works as a bartender in Seattle. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee said Sunday night that he would order all bars, restaurants, entertainment and recreation facilities in the state to temporarily close to fight the spread of coronavirus, as Washington state has by far the most deaths in the U.S. from the disease. Baldwin said he closed more than an hour early Sunday after he heard the announcement. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
A freeway sign urging people to wash their hands to avoid the COVID-19 virus is seen along the 101 Ventura freeway Sunday, March 15, 2020, in Westlake Village, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Shelves are emptied of paper toilet and product supplies at a Safeway store in Phoenix on Sunday, March 15, 2020. Arizona's governor and school superintendent on Sunday ordered a statewide closure of schools through at least March 27 as authorities rush to contain the outbreak of the new coronavirus. (AP Photo/Brian Skoloff)
A store vendor wears a face mask as she waits for customers in Chinatown in New York, on Sunday, March 15, 2020. President Donald Trump on Sunday called on Americans to cease hoarding groceries and other supplies, while one of the nation's most senior public health officials called on the nation to act with more urgency to safeguard their health as the coronavirus outbreak continued to spread across the United States.(AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)
Workers from a Servpro disaster recovery team wearing protective suits and respirators are given supplies as they line up before entering the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash., to begin cleaning and disinfecting the facility, Wednesday, March 11, 2020. The nursing home is at the center of the coronavirus outbreak in Washington state. For most people, the virus causes only mild or moderate symptoms. For some it can cause more severe illness, especially in older adults and people with existing health problems. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
March 11th 2020 - Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson have tested positive for the novel coronavirus. - File Photo by: zz/KGC-11/STAR MAX/IPx 2016 9/9/16 Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson at The 5th Biennial Stand Up To Cancer (SU2C). (Los Angeles, CA)
NBA referee Marc Davis, left, takes a phone call as fellow referee Justin Van Duyne stands next to Davis before the basketball game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings was postponed at the last minute in Sacramento, Calif., Wednesday, March 11, 2020. The league said the decision was made out of an "abundance of caution," because official Courtney Kirkland, who was scheduled to work the game, had worked the Utah Jazz game earlier in the week. A player for the Jazz tested positive for the coronavirus. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
NBA referee Marc Davis leaves the court after the the NBA basketball game between the Sacramento Kings and the New Orleans Pelicans was postponed at the last minute in Sacramento, Calif., Wednesday, March 11, 2020. The postponement was due to what the league said was an "abundance of caution," because official Courtney Kirkland, who was scheduled to work the game, had worked the Utah Jazz game earlier in the week. A player for the Jazz tested positive for the coronavirus. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
From left Ellie Unruh, Abbie Unruh, Zoe Yates, and Evi Yates bump elbows instead of high-fives while playing volleyball at a local park Sunday, March 15, 2020, in Gilbert, Ariz. The girls were playing with friends after their respective volleyball clubs and teams practices and games were canceled statewide due to the COVID-19 coronavirus. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey announced earlier in the day that all schools and sports throughout Arizona are temporarily closed through March 27th challenging some parents to get creative in keeping their kids active. (AP Photo/Matt York)
A basketball fan walks past a sign on how to decrease the risk of catching the coronavirus outside a restroom at the American Airlines Arena during the first half of an NBA basketball game between the Miami Heat and the Charlotte Hornets, Wednesday, March 11, 2020, in Miami. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
President Donald Trump speaks in an address to the nation from the Oval Office at the White House about the coronavirus Wednesday, March, 11, 2020, in Washington. (Doug Mills/The New York Times via AP, Pool)
FILE PHOTO: Voters cast their ballot in the Democratic primary election in Houston
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York
Judie Shape, left, who has tested positive for the coronavirus, waves to her daughter, Lori Spencer, right, Wednesday, March 11, 2020, as they visit on the phone and look at each other through a window at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash., near Seattle. In-person visits are not allowed at the nursing home. The vast majority of people recover from the new coronavirus. According to the World Health Organization, most people recover in about two to six weeks, depending on the severity of the illness. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
Judie Shape, center, who has tested positive for the coronavirus, blows a kiss to her son-in-law, Michael Spencer, left, as Shape's daughter, Lori Spencer, right, looks on, Wednesday, March 11, 2020, as they visit on the phone and look at each other through a window at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash., near Seattle. In-person visits are not allowed at the nursing home. The vast majority of people recover from the new coronavirus. According to the World Health Organization, most people recover in about two to six weeks, depending on the severity of the illness. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
As President Donald Trump listens, Vice President Mike Pence speaks in the briefing room of the White House in Washington, Monday, March, 9, 2020, about the coronavirus outbreak. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Yirmeyahu Gourarie performs a Purim reading from the Book of Esther for residents under self-quarantine due to potential exposure to the new coronavirus, Monday, March 9, 2020, in New Rochelle, N.Y. In Westchester County, student volunteers from a Jewish secondary school were fanning out in teams to read the megillah on Monday evening and during the day Tuesday outside the homes of about 120 families from the community who are quarantined. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
This March 9, 2020, image provided by Carolyn Wright, a passenger aboard the Grand Princess, shows the disembarkation of the passengers from the cruise ship which is docked in Oakland, Ca. For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. (Courtesy of Carolyn Wright via AP)
Tim Killian, center, a spokesman for Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash., talks to reporters, Monday, March 9, 2020, at the facility near Seattle. The nursing home is at the center of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Washington state. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
A sign stands next to a sanitizing station at the entrance of the Vivint Smart Home Arena before an NBA basketball game between the Toronto Raptors and the Utah Jazz, Monday, March 9, 2020, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Workers prepare a wharf at the Port of Oakland to receive the Grand Princess in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, March 8, 2020. The cruise ship, miles off the port Sunday, is expected to dock Monday for novel coronavirus quarantine after multiple people tested positive for the virus. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
En esta imagen tomada de un video cortesía de la Guardia Nacional de California, un helicóptero del 129no batallón de rescate sobrevuela el crucero Gran Princess frente a las costas de California, el jueves 5 de marzo de 2020. (Guardia Nacional de California vía AP)
In this image from video, provided by the California National Guard, airmen with the 129th Rescue Wing drop virus testing kits down to the Grand Princess cruise ship off the coast of California Thursday, March 5, 2020. Scrambling to keep the coronavirus at bay, officials ordered a cruise ship with 3,500 people aboard to stay back from the California coast Thursday until passengers and crew can be tested, after a traveler from its previous voyage died of the disease and at least two others became infected. The California National Guard 129th Rescue Wing lowered test kits onto the 951-foot (290-meter) Grand Princess by rope as the vessel lay at anchor off Northern California, and authorities said the results would be available on Friday. Princess Cruise Lines said fewer than 100 people aboard had been identified for testing. (California National Guard via AP)
Passengers look out from balconies aboard the Grand Princess as it cruises a holding pattern about 25 miles off the coast of San Francisco on Sunday, March 8, 2020. The ship is expected to dock in Oakland in the east San Francisco Bay on Monday. California Gov. Gavin Newsom and the mayor of Oakland sought Sunday to reassure the public that none of the passengers from the ship with multiple cases of the new coronavirus will be released into the public before undergoing a 14-day quarantine. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
Carrying multiple people who have tested positive for COVID-19, the Grand Princess maintains a holding pattern about 30 miles off the coast of San Francisco, Sunday, March 8, 2020. The cruise ship is scheduled to dock at the Port of Oakland on Monday. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
A man wears a mask aboard the Grand Princess as it maintains a holding pattern about 25 miles off the coast of San Francisco on Sunday, March 8, 2020. The cruise ship is scheduled to dock at the Port of Oakland on Monday for COVID-19 quarantine after 21 people tested positive for the virus. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)
SPRINGFIELD, VA - MARCH 7: Local Target store in the D.C area depleted of cleaning and sanitizing supplies and left with empty shelves as fear grow of COVID-19 (the coronavirus) reports increasing on March 7, 2020 in Springfield, Virginia. Credit: mpi34/MediaPunch /IPX
SPRINGFIELD, VA - MARCH 7: Local Target store in the D.C area depleted of cleaning and sanitizing supplies and left with empty shelves as fear grow of COVID-19 (the coronavirus) reports increasing on March 7, 2020 in Springfield, Virginia. Credit: mpi34/MediaPunch /IPX
The headquarters for Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is shown on Friday, March 6, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. President Donald Trump's trip to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, briefly scuttled Friday because of unfounded fears that someone there had contracted the coronavirus, was back on, giving the president another chance to calm growing alarm about the spread of the virus in America. (AP Photo/ Ron Harris)
An ambulance backs into a parking lot, Friday, March 6, 2020, at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash., which has become the epicenter of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak in Washington state. This ambulance left the facility after a short time and did not transport a patient. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
Ambulance workers move a man on a stretcher from the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash. into an ambulance, Friday, March 6, 2020. The facility is the epicenter of the outbreak of the the COVID-19 coronavirus in Washington state. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
A woman uses protective gloves as she looks at her phone wrapped in a plastic bag while riding a New York City subway train, Monday, March 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar looks on as President Donald Trump shows a spending bill to combat the Coronavirus, at the White House, Friday, March 6, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
President Donald Trump holds a photograph of coronavirus as Dr. Steve Monroe,right, with CDC speaks to members of the press at the headquarters of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta on Friday, March 6, 2020. President Trump's trip to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, briefly scuttled Friday because of unfounded fears that someone there had contracted the coronavirus, was back on, giving the president another chance to calm growing alarm about the spread of the virus in America. (Hyosub Shin/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP)
Photo by: John Nacion/STAR MAX/IPx 2020 3/6/20 People wear masks to protect themselves from the Corona Virus in New York City.
Photo by: John Nacion/STAR MAX/IPx 2020 3/6/20 People wear masks to protect themselves from the Corona Virus in New York City. Shoppers have cleared store shelves of sanitizing products.
Vice President Mike Pence, left, arrives with Debi Birx, center, White House coronavirus response coordinator, and Robert Redfield, right, director of the CDC, Thursday, March 5, 2020, at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington state for a visit with state officials. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
Vice President Mike Pence greets Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, left, as Pence arrives, Thursday, March 5, 2020 at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington state. Officials are avoiding handshakes due to the COVID-19 coronavirus. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
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Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey urged President Donald Trump on Tuesday to invoke the DPA in order to "enable the federal government to step up and take the type of aggressive steps needed in this time of uncertainty."

Trump addressed talks of evoking the DPA on Tuesday, telling reporters: "We're able to do that if we have to ... Right now, we haven't had to, but it's certainly ready."

The coronavirus has spread to over 140 countries and has impacted killed over 7,900 people globally as of Tuesday evening. The US has reported over 6,400 cases, including 111 deaths across 50 states and several territories. 

Trump declared a national emergency on Friday, after weeks of downplaying the severity of the disease spread. On Monday he said Americans should "avoid gathering in groups of more than 10 people" as part of measures to encourage social distancing.

Though much is still unknown about the coronavirus, experts have predicted that unless urgent measures are taken, the US healthcare system could be overwhelmed by an influx of COVID-19 cases.

And new modeling from The Australian National University released earlier this month also predicts that the US could see a GDP loss of up to $1.7 trillion in 2020 in the worst-case scenario.

"Even in the best-case scenario of a low-severity impact, the economic fallout is going to be enormous and countries need to work together to limit the potential damage as much as possible," Professor Warwick McKibbin, the study's author, wrote. 

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