Is Trump toast? Data model that predicted 2018 midterms says he’ll lose in 2020

The data model that correctly predicted last year’s Democratic “blue wave” victory in the midterm elections says President Donald Trump may have already lost in 2020. 

The model by Rachel Bitecofer, which doesn’t rely on polls, predicts Trump will lose three states that were key to his victory in 2020: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

And that will give his Democratic rival a clear path to the White House. 

Bitecofer, of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, writes in a new analysis that Trump’s 2016 victory was the political equivalent of royal flush in poker.

That’s not going to happen again given how “agitated” the Democratic voters are right now, she said.

Bitecofer bases her model on statewide estimates of voter turnout.

“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped,” she writes. “Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”

In addition to not relying on poll aggregators, her model also doesn’t rely on a specific nominee. She said whoever Trump’s rival is won’t matter much “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.”

With Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the fold, the model finds that a Democratic candidate has 278 electoral votes from “safe,” “likely” or “lean” states.

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First lady Melania Trump speaks to supporters at a rally where President Donald Trump formally announced his 2020 re-election bid Tuesday, June 18, 2019, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrive on stage to formally kick off his re-election bid with a campaign rally in Orlando, Florida, U.S., June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
US President Donald Trump greets First Lady Melania Trump as he takes the stage for the official launch of the Trump 2020 campaign at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. - Trump kicks off his reelection campaign at what promised to be a rollicking evening rally in Orlando. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN / AFP) (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)
ORLANDO, USA - JUNE 18: US first lady Melania Trump greets supporters during a rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. President Donald Trump officially launches his 2020 campaign. (Photo by Eva Marie Uzcategui T./Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
First lady Melania Trump and President Donald Trump greet supporters at a rally to formally announce his 2020 re-election bid Tuesday, June 18, 2019, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
ORLANDO, USA - JUNE 18: US first lady Melania Trump (C) beside US President Donald Trump (R) speaks during a rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. President Donald Trump officially launches his 2020 campaign. (Photo by Eva Marie Uzcategui T./Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrive at his re-election kickoff rally at the Amway Center, Tuesday, June 18, 2019, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
ORLANDO, USA - JUNE 18: US President Donald Trump (2nd L), first lady Melania Trump (L), US Vice President Mike Pence (2nd R) and his wife Karen Pence (R) greet supporters during a rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. President Donald Trump officially launches his 2020 campaign. (Photo by Eva Marie Uzcategui T./Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
ORLANDO, USA - JUNE 18: US President Donald Trump (C-L) and first lady Melania Trump (C) arrive on stage during a rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. President Donald Trump officially launches his 2020 campaign. (Photo by Eva Marie Uzcategui T./Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
TOPSHOT - US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump arrive for the official launch of the Trump 2020 campaign at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. - Trump kicks off his reelection campaign at what promised to be a rollicking evening rally in Orlando. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN / AFP) (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)
TOPSHOT - US President Donald Trump greets First Lady Melania Trump as he takes the stage for the official launch of the Trump 2020 campaign at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. - Trump kicks off his reelection campaign at what promised to be a rollicking evening rally in Orlando. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN / AFP) (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)
ORLANDO, USA - JUNE 18: US President Donald Trump (R) and first lady Melania Trump (L) greet supporters a rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. President Donald Trump officially launches his 2020 campaign. (Photo by Eva Marie Uzcategui T./Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump arrive for the official launch of the Trump 2020 campaign at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. - Trump kicks off his reelection campaign at what promised to be a rollicking evening rally in Orlando. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN / AFP) (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump greet supporters at a rally where the president formally announced his 2020 re-election bid Tuesday, June 18, 2019, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
President Donald Trump with first lady Melania Trump arrives to speak at his re-election kickoff rally at the Amway Center, Tuesday, June 18, 2019, in Orlando. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
ORLANDO, USA - JUNE 18: US President Donald Trump (C-L) and first lady Melania Trump (C-R) arrive on stage during a rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida on June 18, 2019. President Donald Trump officially launches his 2020 campaign. (Photo by Eva Marie Uzcategui T./Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
U.S. President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump kiss at a campaign kick off rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida, U.S., June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
U.S. President Donald Trump reacts with first lady Melania Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen Pence on stage formally kicking off his re-election bid with a campaign rally in Orlando, Florida, U.S., June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump wave at a campaign kick off rally at the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida, U.S., June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri
First lady Melania Trump speaks as U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as he formally kick off his re-election bid with a campaign rally in Orlando, Florida, U.S., June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. President Donald Trump reacts with first lady Melania Trump as he formally kick off his re-election bid with a campaign rally in Orlando, Florida, U.S., June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. President Donald Trump reacts with first lady Melania Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen Pence on stage formally kicking off his re-election bid with a campaign rally in Orlando, Florida, U.S., June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
First lady Melania Trump speaks as U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as he formally kick off his re-election bid with a campaign rally in Orlando, Florida, U.S., June 18, 2019. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
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Trump has just 197 in those categories. Even if he wins all of the toss-up states in Bitecofer’s model such as Florida, he’ll still fall short of the 270 needed to win reelection.

However, she said there are still factors that could change the outcome, such as the arrival of a well-financed independent such as ex-Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz or “significant disruption” such as war, recession, a terrorist attack.

She also said Republican turnout will increase, with 90 percent of them voting for Trump along with at least 38 percent of independents.

“Trump has a floor that is at least theoretically competitive for reelection and will force Democrats to compete hard to win the presidency,” she wrote. 

She said the Democrat turnout surge will be larger in many states, and added that the eventual nominee will, in fact, matter at least to some extent. 

“If the ticket has a woman, a person of color or a Latino, or a female who is also a person of color, Democratic Party turnout will surge more in really important places,” she said. 

If it’s a white man such as former Vice President Joe Biden, increasing turnout should be the top consideration for choosing a running mate.

That said, she wrote: 

“But the Democrats are not complacent like they were in 2016 and I doubt there is any amount of polling or favorable forecasts that will make them so. That fear will play a crucial role in their 2020 victory. We will not see a divided Democratic Party in 2020.”

Bitecofer predicted in July of last year that Democrats would pick up 42 seats in the 2018 midterms.

They won 40, including 24 of the 25 seats she identified as most likely to flip. 

  • This article originally appeared on HuffPost.
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