The new NBA draft lottery odds have the potential to be devastating for the league's worst teams

Scott Davis
Updated

  • The NBA draft lottery is on Tuesday.

  • The NBA has new lottery odds, which give the three worst teams the same 14% chance at the No. 1 pick and greater odds of picking outside of the top three than within it.

  • In a top-heavy draft, if any of the worst teams miss out on the top three picks, it could go a long way toward curbing tanking, which was the NBA's goal with the revised odds.

  • The odds for all 14 teams can be found below.

  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories

The NBA's draft lottery is on Tuesday, and the league will find out if the revised lottery odds will have the impact they hoped.

Last year, the NBA changed the lottery odds to curb tanking. Previously, teams with the worst record had a 25% chance at the No. 1 pick, the second-worst team had a 19.9% chance, a 15.6% chance for the third-worst record, and falling odds through the final 11 lottery teams. The team with the worst record could not pick lower than fourth.

Now, with the revised odds, the three-worst teams all share a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick. The fourth- and fifth-worst teams have a 12.5% and 10.5% chance at the No. 1 pick. The odds decline through the remaining lottery teams.

For the bottom three teams, there is a chance for devastation. The New York Knicks, for example, had the worst record in the league. They have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick and just a 40.1% chance at staying in the top three. Under the new rules, they can't fall lower than fifth in the draft, but they have a 59.9% chance at picking fourth or fifth.

The Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers, the other two teams in the bottom three, see their lowest possible pick decline, too. The Suns can't pick lower than sixth, and the Cavs can't pick lower than seventh. They share the same 40.1% chance at landing in the top three.

Any of these teams — which blatantly tanked during the season — picking fifth, sixth, or seventh would be devastating. In a top-heavy draft highlighted by Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, and R.J. Barrett, falling from the top three to fifth or sixth could mean going from a potential franchise star to perhaps a solid role player, if pre-draft analyses are to be believed.

Not much was made of the new lottery odds when the change was made, but the results on Tuesday could potentially go a long way in curbing tanking.

Here are the new lottery odds for each team.

  1. New York Knicks — 14.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 52.1% chance at top-four pick, can't pick lower than fifth

  2. Phoenix Suns — 14.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 52.1% chance at top-four pick, can't pick lower than sixth

  3. Cleveland Cavaliers — 14.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 52.1% chance at top-three pick, can't pick lower than seventh

  4. Chicago Bulls — 12.4% chance at No. 1 pick, 48.0% chance at top-four pick, can't pick lower than eighth

  5. Atlanta Hawks — 10.5% chance at No. 1 pick, 42.1% chance at top-four pick, can't pick lower than ninth

  6. Washington Wizards — 9.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 37.2% chance at top-four pick

  7. New Orleans Pelicans — 6.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 26.3% chance at top-four pick

  8. Memphis Grizzlies — 6.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 26.3% chance at top-four pick

  9. Dallas Mavericks — 6.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 26.3% chance at top-four pick

  10. Minnesota Timberwolves — 3.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 13.9% chance at top-four pick

  11. Los Angeles Lakers — 2.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 9.4% chance at top-four pick

  12. Charlotte Hornets — 1.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 4.8% chance at top-four pick

  13. Miami Heat — 1.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 4.8% chance at top-four pick

  14. Sacramento Kings — 1.0% chance at No. 1 pick, 4.8% chance at top-four pick

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