Super Bowl MVP odds: Breaking down 15 players chances of being named Super Bowl MVP

  • The New England Patriots will face the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII on Sunday, February 3.
  • Odds are already out for who will win Super Bowl MVP, with plenty of interesting long shot bets available on both the Patriots and Rams.
  • Both quarterbacks are the heavy favorites to win the award, but surprises do happen — two of the past five Super Bowl MVPs have been defensive players.
  • See the odds for Super Bowl MVP below and follow all of Business Insider's Super Bowl LIII coverage here.

The build to Super Bowl LIII is officially on, with the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams set to meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday, February 3 to battle for the Lombardi Trophy.

No one knows how the game will shake out, but that hasn't stopped bookmakers from offering odds on which player will win Super Bowl MVP when the final whistle is blown.

There are a few recent trends in Super Bowl MVPs that one should be aware of before betting. First and foremost, quarterbacks are the most likely winners, having taken the award in nine of the past 12 championship games.

Beyond quarterbacks, game-changing wide receivers and defensive standouts usually have the best chance of having a big day and being recognized as the best player on the field.

While you might think that running backs would be a wise wager for Super Bowl MVP, none have won since Terrell Davis in 1998 — three linebackers and a safety have all won the award more recently.

This year, the Rams and Patriots present plenty of compelling candidates to take home the award. Both quarterbacks are the predictably heavy favorites, but the Rams and Patriots are both so stocked with potential breakout players that some interesting long shots emerge if you think the game might wind up getting a bit weird.

Below we break down the 15 players with the best odds to win Super Bowl MVP this year.

Odds come courtesy of, and are current as of 1/22/19.

15 players most likely to win Super Bowl MVP
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15 players most likely to win Super Bowl MVP

Josh Reynolds (66/1)

NFC Championship stats: 4 receptions, 74 receiving yards, 1 carry, 16 rushing yards

One thing to know: Josh Reynolds has stepped up in the absence of injured wide receiver Cooper Kupp as an important pass-catcher for the Rams offense. He's also used in some rushing and semi-trick plays that Los Angeles likes to run in big spots. A few touchdowns and one or two big conversions on memorable plays, and it's not inconceivable he wins the award.

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Dante Fowler Jr. (66/1)

NFC Championship stats: 5 total tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits

One thing to know: Defensive players have won Super Bowl MVP twice in the past five years, but they need to have a huge game, and usually force some turnovers or even score to do it.

(Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Aqib Talib (66/1)

NFC Championship stats: 2 solo tackles

One thing to know: As a former Patriot, Talib would certainly fit the MVP narrative if he had a big day that contributed to a Rams upset victory.

(Photo by Adam Bow/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Rex Burkhead (66/1)

AFC Championship stats: 12 carries, 41 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 23 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

One thing to know: Picking a Patriots running back to go off in any game is always a crapshoot. So while there's a chance he sees little action depending on New England's game play on Sunday, catching Rex Burkhead at 66/1 odds feels like a fine bet if you're cheering for chaos. He had two touchdowns in the AFC Championship — if he has three in the Super Bowl and Brady is off, it could happen.

(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Robert Woods (50/1)

NFC Championship stats: 6 receptions, 33 receiving yards

One thing to know: Since Cooper Kupp's injury in the second half of the season, Robert Woods has emerged as Jared Goff's new favorite receiver in the Rams offense. Woods led the team in targets in both of their playoff games so far and should have plenty of opportunities on Super Bowl Sunday to make his case.

(Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)
Brandin Cooks (40/1)

NFC Championship stats: 7 receptions, 107 receiving yards

One thing to know: Woods might see more targets than Brandin Cooks, but there's little doubt that Cooks leads Woods when it comes to big-play potential. Cooks' speed is a real competitive advantage, and if he catches a few bombs in stride, he could have a huge statistical day even with just a few catches. As with Talib, he's a former Patriot as well, again setting up a nice revenge narrative should his playmaking be the difference.

(Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Rob Gronkowski (35/1)

AFC Championship stats: 6 receptions, 79 receiving yards

One thing to know: Rob Gronkowski hasn't looked like himself this season, but played like a new man in the AFC Championship, with six catches on 11 targets from Brady, including a few huge first down conversions that helped seal the win for the Patriots. New England has been hesitant to overuse Gronk, but with this the final game of their season regardless of the outcome, it might be time for the Patriots to pull out all the stops and let their star tight end loose.

(Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Julian Edelman (25/1)

AFC Championship stats: 7 receptions, 96 receiving yards

One thing to know: With 247 yards through two playoff games so far this postseason, Edelman has been Brady's most valuable weapon throughout the Patriots run to the Super Bowl. Edelman also returns punts for New England, giving him an opportunity to make a big play on the field without Brady and help his chances of winning MVP.

(Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
James White (20/1)

AFC Championship stats: 6 carries, 23 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 49 receiving yards

One thing to know: James White's odds reflect the fact that he's the most likely player to affect both the passing game and rushing attack of the Patriots offense. He had a whopping 15 receptions against the Chargers in the first game of the Patriots postseason — add a couple of touchdowns to that and his name could be in the conversation.

(Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Aaron Donald (20/1)

NFC Championship stats: 2 tackles for loss, 3 quarterback hits

One thing to know: Aaron Donald's most important work can sometimes be difficult to appreciate. He is so often double-teamed that his main contribution to a play can often be giving a teammate the opportunity to make a sack or force a fumble. But Donald can do a lot on his own, and if he forces a fumble or two and is a constant pest to Brady in the backfield, there's little doubt he'd be recognized in a Rams win. Also, I wouldn't put it past Sean McVay to draw up a fullback dive for Donald on fourth-and-short.

(Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
C.J. Anderson (20/1)

NFC Championship stats: 16 carries, 44 receiving yards, 1 reception, 5 receiving yards

One thing to know: C.J. Anderson has had a huge impact for the Rams after joining the team just before Week 16, and in the AFC Championship, was the featured back for Los Angeles for much of the game. A Super Bowl win and MVP award would be quite an ending to what has been a wild year.

(Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Sony Michel (16/1)

AFC Championship stats: 29 carries, 113 rushing yards 2 touchdowns

One thing to know: We already said that picking a Patriots running back to go off on any given Sunday is a bit of a game of roulette, but if New England is going to win the game on the ground, there's a pretty good chance it's thanks to Sony Michel. Michel has been a huge part of the Patriots offense so far this postseason, with 242 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns through two games.

(Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Todd Gurley (12/1)

NFC Championship stats: 4 carries, 10 rushing yards, 1 reception, 3 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

One thing to know: Todd Gurley is widely considered one of the best running backs in the NFL, but was limited during the AFC Championship, sparking injury concerns from some Rams fans. Still, if he's 100% for the Super Bowl, Gurley is known as an impact player, going for over 100 total yards in nine of the 14 games he started this season, and scoring multiple touchdowns six times.

(Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Jared Goff (+225)

NFC Championship stats: 25/40, 297 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 83.0 rating

One thing to know: In all three of the Patriots' Super Bowl losses during the Brady-Belichick era, the opposing quarterback took home the MVP award — Eli Manning twice, and Nick Foles just last year.

(Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Tom Brady (+110)

AFC Championship stats: 30/46, 348 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 77.1 rating

One thing to know: Tom Brady has won MVP in four of the five Super Bowls that he's won with the Patriots. If you think New England is a sure bet to win, and are pretty confident that Brady takes home the award once again, betting Brady to win MVP is a better value bet than the Patriots moneyline.

(Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

More Super Bowl coverage:

The Patriots added 8 new plays they'd never practiced the morning of the AFC title game, and one played a huge role in the win

Food and concessions at this year's Super Bowl will be ridiculously cheap compared to other recent games

Here's how much Super Bowl tickets cost, less than 2 weeks from game day

There's a Chick-fil-A in Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium — but the chain is refusing to open it on Super Bowl Sunday

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READ MORE: Check out all of our Super Bowl LIII coverage here

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