If the NCAA Tournament played out as it was seeded, the Sweet 16 would simply feature the top four seeds from each region. Thankfully, March Madness is a lot more unpredictable than that -- especially this year.
The first weekend of March Madness saw nine top-four seeded teams fall, starting with Arizona’s 89-68 loss to No. 13 Buffalo on Thursday night and ending with Xavier’s 75-70 defeat to No. 9 Florida State on Sunday. The South region is the first in NCAA Tournament history to have its top four teams knocked out before the Sweet 16. The average remaining seed is 5.3, which is the highest since 2000, according to Yahoo Sports.
In other words, it’s not just your bracket that’s busted -- pretty much everyone else’s is, too. The seeds assigned to each school by the NCAA are outdated, and it’s time to reset how we think about these teams.
The gallery below ranks each of the remaining 16 teams, from least likely to most likely, on their chances to win the national championship, according to FiveThirtyEight win probabilities.
Click through to see the championship probabilities of each remaining team: