Nate Silver's model has nailed 80 percent of the NFL playoff games and now it has made its Super Bowl projection

  • Nate Silver's NFL projection model is giving the New England Patriots a 58% chance to win the Super Bowl.
  • The 58% translates to the Patriots being a 2.5-point favorite.
  • The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in most Las Vegas sportsbooks.


The New England Patriots are the betting favorite to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII, and Nate Silver's model at FiveThirtyEight agrees.

Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance, and then simulating the playoffs thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team had of winning every playoff game and the Super Bowl.

So far, the model is 8-2 in the playoffs, having correctly picked both the Patriots and the Eagles to win their conference title games. The only games that Silver's model missed so far were the Tennessee Ttians' Wild Card upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars' upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Divisional round.

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Look back at Patriots vs. Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX
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Look back at Patriots vs. Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX
JACKSONVILLE, FL - FEBRUARY 6: Wide receiver Terrell Owens #81 on the field before the start of Superbowl XXXIX between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots delivers a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles in the first quarter of Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - FEBRUARY 6: Linebacker Willie McGinest #55 of the New England Patriots chases quarterback Donovan McNabb #5 of the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - FEBRUARY 06: Linebacker Tedy Bruschi #54 of the New England Patriots sacks quarterback Donovan McNabb #5 of the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter of Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - FEBRUARY 6: Wide receiver L.J. Smith #82 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after scoring on a 7-yard touchdown catch against Roman Phifer #95 of the New England Patriots in the second quarter during Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - FEBRUARY 6: Defensive back Eugene Wilson #26 of the New England Patriots is tripped up after recovering a fumble in the second quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Wide receiver Todd Pinkston #87 of the Philadelphia Eagles looks for an opening around Rodney Harrison #37 and Tedy Bruschi #54 of the New England Patriots after catching a 17-yard pass against the New England Patriots in the second quarter during Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Wide receiver David Givens #87 of the New England Patriots catches a 4-yard touchdown pass against cornerback Lito Sheppard #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles in the second quarter of Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Runningback Corey Dillon #28 of the New England Patriots runs for 25 yards in the second quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots scrambles after his own fumble that was eventually recovered by defensive tackle Darwin Walker #97 of the Philadelphia Eagles in the second quarter during Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - FEBRUARY 6: Linebacker Mike Vrabel #50 of the New England Patriots celebrates with teammate Stephen Neal #61 after catching a 2-yard touchdown pass against the Philadelphia Eagles in the third quarter during Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - FEBRUARY 6: Fullback Patrick Pass #35 of the New England Patriots looks for room to run in the third quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Running back Corey Dillon #28 of the New England Patriots reaches across the goal line to score on a 2-yard touchdown run against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Running back Corey Dillon #28 of the New England Patriots looks for room to run in the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, UNITED STATES: Philadelphia Eagles J.R. Reed is upended in the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX 06 February 2005 at Alltel Stadium in Jacksonville, FL. The Patriots lead 24-21 in the fourth quarter. AFP PHOTO/Jeff HAYNES (Photo credit should read JEFF HAYNES/AFP/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Wide receiver Terrell Owens #81 of the Philadelphia Eagles catches a 36-yard pass against safety Dexter Reid #42 of the New England Patriots during the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Rodney Harrison #37, Asante Samuel #22 and Mike Vrabel #50 of the New England Patriots celebrate after defeating tight end L.J. Smith #82 and the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Patriots defeated the Eagles 24-21. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - FEBRUARY 6: Rodney Harrison #37, Asante Samuel #22 and Mike Vrabel #50 of the New England Patriots celebrate after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Patriots defeated the Eagles 24-21. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, UNITED STATES: New England Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri (4) is hoisted in the air after his team's 24-21 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX 06 February 2005 at Alltel Stadium in Jacksonville, FL. This is the Patriots third Super Bowl title in four years. AFP PHOTO/Roberto SCHMIDT (Photo credit should read ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots celebrates with team owner Robert Kraft after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Patriots defeated the Eagles 24-21. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FL - FEBRUARY 6: Rodney Harrison #37 and Christian Fauria #88 of the New England Patriots celebrate with the Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Patriots defeated the Eagles 24-21. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 06: Quarterback Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots celebrates with the Lombardi trophy after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX at Alltel Stadium on February 6, 2005 in Jacksonville, Florida. The Patriots defeated the Eagles 24-21. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
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Now, with just the Big Game remaining, the model is giving the Patriots a 58% chance of beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl. 

The percentage translates to the Patriots being a 2.5-point favorite. As of Monday morning, most Las Vegas sports books have the Patriots as a 4.5-point favorite. The Patriots opened as a 6-point favorite in Vegas.

Prior to the season, Silver's model had the Patriots as the heavy favorite to win the Super Bowl with an 18% chance to win it all, twice as much as any other team. The Eagles were in the middle of the pack with a 2% chance to win the championship. In fact, the Eagles were only given a 21% chance to win their own division, behind both the Dallas Cowboys (34%) and the New York Giants (25%)

The Eagles were given a 15% chance to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs started. The Patriots were at 31%.

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