Cortana and Elo have nailed 64% of their NFL picks — here is who they like in Week 15

  • After a slow start to the season, Cortana and Elo have been on fire in recent weeks.
  • The two models we're tracking have correctly picked 64% of the games this season.
  • Both models had a bad Week 14, but are looking to rebound in Week 15.


The NFL season is now in Week 15, and the two computer models finally had a bad week after a solid two month run.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Both models have been on fire in recent weeks, but finally came back down to Earth in Week 14. Cortana went a disappointing 8-8 last week after going 77-24 over the previous seven weeks. Cortana still holds the overall lead, with a 136-72 (65%) record on the season. Elo was a game worse in Week 14, going 7-9, and is now 130-78 (63%) overall.

Here are the picks for Week 15, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

17 PHOTOS
Computers make picks for NFL Week 15
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Computers make picks for NFL Week 15

Thursday

Denver Broncos (-3) at Indianapolis Colts — COLTS (Elo 51%), BRONCOS (Cortana 58%)

(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Saturday

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5) — LIONS (Elo 73%, Cortana 61%)

(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Saturday

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs — CHIEFS (Elo 62%), CHARGERS (Cortana 53%)

(Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)
Sunday

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3) — BILLS (Elo 62%, Cortana 51%)

(Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)

Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Cleveland Browns — RAVENS (Elo 83%, Cortana 77%)

(Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) — VIKINGS (Elo 83%, Cortana 73%)

(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-16) — SAINTS (Elo 82%, Cortana 80%)

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at New York Giants — EAGLES (Elo 80%, Cortana 78%)

(Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4.5) — REDSKINS (Elo 59%, Cortana 57%)

(Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-3) — PANTHERS (Elo 69%, Cortana 51%)

(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11) — JAGUARS (Elo 79%, Cortana 74%)

(Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) — SEAHAWKS (Elo 64%), RAMS (Cortana 51%)

(Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

New England Patriots (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers — STEELERS (Elo 53%, Cortana 51%)

(Photo by Mark Alberti/ Icon Sportswire)

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-2) — TITANS (Elo 63%, Cortana 63%)

(Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Oakland Raiders — NO PICK (Elo 50%), COWBOYS (Cortana 58%)

(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Monday

Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — FALCONS (Elo 68%, Cortana 75%)

(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
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