NFL Week 11: Our official predictions for who wins this weekend
After a few weeks of misfires, our bets have finally settled down a bit, going a nice 7-7 last week.
While not profitable, getting steady is a good thing in such a volatile year of football. Add to that the fact that we were two half-point decisions away from a 9-5 weekend, and it's pretty easy to see that things are looking back up.
This Sunday offers a ton of great gambling opportunities if you know where to look, so let's waste no time in getting to the picks.
All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
LAST WEEK: 7-7
Tennessee Titans (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
The pick: Steelers -7
The logic: The Steelers are playing in their blackout Color Rush uniforms. No way I'm betting against those.
Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
The pick: Lions -3
The logic: This line looks mighty suspicious, as the Lions have proven to be a well balanced team and the Bears have looked quite disappointing in recent weeks. The line is almost fishy enough for me to go the other way, but not quite. Just be careful with this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
The pick: Browns +7.5
The logic: Earlier this week, a friend asked me to help him with his survivor pool pick, he was between the Chiefs in New York and the Jaguars in Cleveland.
I told him to toss both aside and pick the Browns instead. LOCK IT.
Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
The pick: Packers +2
The logic: The Packers figured out a way to win last weekend, and at home against a struggling Ravens team, I see no reason why they can't do it again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK) at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brian Blanco/Getty Images
The pick: Buccaneers PK
The logic: I flipped a coin, forgot which side was for which team, and then decided on the Buccaneers. Just being honest.
Los Angeles Rams (+2) at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
The pick: Vikings -2
The logic: The Rams are playing like a team on fire right now, while the Vikings have worked their way to a 7-2 record as quietly as a team can do it. The Rams feel like the obvious play here, so I'm going with Minnesota.
Washington Redskins (+7.5) at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brett Carlsen/Getty Images
The pick: Redskins +7.5
The logic: The Saints are due for a let down at some point right? And the Redskins already roasted me once this year when they traveled to Seattle and made the Seahawks look silly. I don't want to miss them in a spot again.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at New York Giants (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
The pick: Giants +10.5
The logic: Closing my eyes and taking the double-digit home dog. It feels awful, but like hitting on 16 against a dealer's 10, it's one of the rules of gambling that if you follow, will work out better than the alternative in the long run.
Arizona Cardinals (PK) at Houston Texans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Norm Hall/Getty Images
The pick: Texans PK
The logic: Blaine Gabbert is starting for the Cardinals now that Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton are both out with injuries. Above, you can see him dressed up as the tooth fairy. I'm taking the Texans, but no one should bet money on this game.
Buffalo Bills (+4) at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images
The pick: Chargers -4
The logic: Despite putting up entirely respectable numbers this season so far, the Bills have decided to bench quarterback Tyrod Taylor in favor of Nathan Peterman. Philip Rivers has started in 185 consecutive games, second longest streak in the NFL behind Eli Manning — I'll take the experienced vet over the kid making his first start on the road almost every time.
Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
The pick: Broncos -2.5
The logic: The Broncos aren't great, but they moved the ball better against the Patriots than the final score indicated. I'm lowkey expected the Broncos to roll here.
New England Patriots (-7) at Oakland Raiders (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET in Mexico City)
The pick: Raiders +7
The logic: The Raiders are coming off a bye and have played in Mexico City before, whereas the Patriots played late into the night on Sunday last week in Denver. I know I lose money every week betting against New England, but 85% of bettors are currently taking the Patriots, and that's always a signal to go the other way.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
The pick: Cowboys +4
The logic: This is a trap game for the Eagles if I've ever seen one. To start, I hate taking a team that was hot going into their bye week after a week off. Beyond that, the Cowboys are desperate for a win — their season is basically on the line here — and coming off what was one of their worst performances of the season. And on top of all that, they're home dogs.
I'm an Eagles fan by trade, and I've probably overly cautious to back them the past few weeks as I wait for the bottom to fall out, but this is one to be wary of, but with 83% of bettors taking the Birds this week, it's a great spot to zag and bet the Cowboys.
Atlanta Falcons (+3) at Seattle Seahawks (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
The pick: Falcons +3
The logic: The Seahawks have killed me two weeks in a row, including last Thursday when a last second touchdown gave up an embarrassing backdoor cover to the Cardinals. So I'm taking the Falcons here out of spite. Also, I think the loss of Richard Sherman is a big one, and Atlanta is just the type of team to exploit a potential weakness in passing defense.