The computers are on fire picking NFL games — here are their picks for Week 11

  • After a slow start to the season, Cortana and Elo have caught fire in recent weeks.
  • The two models we're tracking have correctly picked 64% of the games this season.
  • Cortana has nailed 82% of the games in the last 4 weeks.


The NFL season is now in Week 11, and one of the two computer models we are tracking has caught fire in recent weeks.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Both models have been on fire in recent weeks. Cortana went 11-3 in Week 10 and is now 45-10 (82%) over the last four weeks. It is now 96-50 (66%) overall, four games better than Elo (92-54, 63%). Elo went 12-2 in Week 10.

Here are the picks for Week 11, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

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Computers make NFL picks for Week 11
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Computers make NFL picks for Week 11

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) — STEELERS (Elo 76%, Cortana 69%)

(Photo by Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports via Reuters)

Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears — LIONS (Elo 62%, Cortana 64%)

(Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns — JAGUARS (Elo 77%, Cortana 77%)

(Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers — PACKERS (Elo 67%), RAVENS (Cortana 63%)

(Photo by Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty Images)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-1) — DOLPHINS (Elo 59%, Cortana 51%)

(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) — VIKINGS (Elo 62%, Cortana 53%)

(Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-8) — SAINTS (Elo 79%, Cortana 78%)

(Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at New York Giants — CHIEFS (Elo 75%, Cortana 74%)

(Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

Arizona Cardinals (pick) at Houston Texans — TEXANS (Elo 57%), CARDINALS (Cortana 61%)

(Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-4) — CHARGERS (Elo 54%, Cortana 55%)

(Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5) — BRONCOS (Elo 60%, Cortana 53%)

(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

New England Patriots (-7) at Oakland Raiders — PATRIOTS (Elo 79%, Cortana 77%)

(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Dallas Cowboys — COWBOYS (Elo 53%), EAGLES (Cortana 61%)

(Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3) — SEAHAWKS (Elo 58%, Cortana 61%)

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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SEE ALSO: NFL POWER RANKINGS: Where all 32 teams stand going into Week 11

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