But that's not what the fates allowed, and one thing about gambling is that once your money is down, it's down, and whether or not you get it back is only up to the gods.
So we're back on the horse this week. Despite sustaining tough losses last week, we're still ahead on the season, and with the Patriots and Browns both on bye this week, I won't be pulled in by the Siren's song that is betting against and on them respectively. Let's find some winners.
All lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
NFL Week 9 picks
NFL Week 9 picks
Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
It's admittedly a tough spot for the Broncos, playing their third straight road game against the best team in football right now. But the Eagles are likely due for a let-down game and the Broncos defense is solid even if the team has been in something of a free-fall recently.
(Photo by Joe Amon/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The pick: Titans -3.5
The logic: It's been announced that Joe Flacco will start on Sunday, but I find it almost impossible to believe after the brutal hit he took from Kiko Alonso last week. Watch that hit again and then think about putting money on that guy at quarterback. I hope Flacco feels better but there's no way I'm backing him just a week removed from getting demolished.
(Photo by: 2017 Nick Cammett/Diamond Images/Getty Images)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at New York Giants (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The pick: Giants +3.5
The logic: Okay, hear me out. There are just too many red flags here to take the Rams in this spot, even if it feels like the surest bet on the board. Who is going to stop Todd Gurley? I can't answer that. Who will block Aaron Donald? Probably no one. You're going to back a team that suspended its best defensive player because he didn't get back from vacation on time? Yes.
The Giants are home dogs and coming off a bye week. The Rams are traveling from the west coast for an early game with Jared Goff expected to cover a spread on the road. It's a perfect recipe for the Giants to randomly win a game.
(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The pick: Panthers +1.5
The logic: This Falcons team has not looked good and the Panthers are a good enough team that has struggled to put it all together a few games. Back the slight home dogs here even if it does feel weird that the team is dumping Kelvin Benjamin for almost nothing.
(Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The pick: Jaguars -5.5
The logic: Last week the Bengals had to fight tooth and nail to get past the Colts at home. Traveling to Jacksonville on Sunday, Andy Dalton seems like the perfect prey for the Jaguars defensive backs to snag three or four picks from.
(Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Indianapolis Colts (NO LINE) at Houston Texans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The pick: Colts
The logic: Before Deshaun Watson's season-ending injury was reported the Texans were about 13-point favorites in this spot, and I was taking the Colts then. With Watson out, my guess is this line settles somewhere around six or seven. Playing against Tom Savage, backing the Colts is still the play.
(Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Arizona Cardinals (-2) at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
The pick: 49ers +2
The logic: I don't care if the Niners are winless this is my lock of the week. Drew Stanton is a road favorite. Don't overthink it.
(Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Washington Redskins (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
The pick: Seahawks -7.5
The logic: The Seahawks weren't able to cover at home last week against the Texans and had to use every trick in the book to just win the game outright. But Seattle simply doesn't lose at home, and all four of the Redskins losses this season have been by nine or more points.
(Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
Kansas City Chiefs (+1) at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The pick: Chiefs +1
The logic: Andy Reid knows how to beat Jason Garrett. And with Ezekiel Elliott's suspension finally set to begin, chances are the Cowboys' offense will be significantly more one-dimensional.
(Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)
Oakland Raiders (-3) at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
The pick: Raiders -3
The logic: Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Dolphins, I can't bet them in this spot. They're likely the better team and everyone loves to take a home underdog in primetime, but my love of the Raiders and distaste for the presence of Jay Cutler (even if he isn't starting) are too much to overcome.
(Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
The pick: Lions -2.5
The logic: This is a dangerous game and I actually like the Packers quite a bit in this spot in that they are at home and coming off a bye week meaning quarterback Brett Hundley has had a full week of first team reps to figure out his game.
But if I know anything about the Packers, it's that they lose just long enough to make everyone panic about them making the postseason before winning their final five games straight to knock the Lions out of the playoffs. This is the perfect place to start that journey.
(Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Buffalo Bills (-3) at New York Jets (Picked on Thursday)
The pick: Jets +3
The logic: When these two teams met in Week 1 it was viewed as a laughable matchup. With both teams now outperforming expectations, it actually makes for a surprisingly feisty divisional matchup on a Thursday night. That said, it's a tough one to pick. I'd say my best bet on this game is Under 42.5, but if I have to take a side, give me the home dog.
(Photo by Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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LAST WEEK: 3-9-1 OVERALL: 61-54-4
Now check out our Week 9 power rankings to get a glimpse of where each team stands heading into the second half of the season