This stat forecasts doomsday for Congressional Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections


Congressional Republicans could be in for punishing losses in the 2018 midterm elections, so long as these key poll numbers holds steady.

A CNN poll published Tuesday found Democrats with a 14-point lead on the generic congressional ballot — a statistic election analysts use to forecast the number of seats a party will win in congressional elections.

That means that if the election were held today, voters would pick the generic Democrat running in their district over a generic Republican by a margin of 51% to 37%.

If that number holds, election forecasters say Republicans could see double-digit losses in the number of House seats they hold in the 2018 midterm elections — losing their current House majority and further imperiling President Donald Trump’s agenda.

That generic ballot number CNN’s poll found is virtually identical to the final generic ballot spread back in 2006, the last midterm election year in which Republicans held the White House and both chambers of Congress.

Democrats led the generic ballot 54% to 39% in early November of 2006, according to CNN’s poll, and President George W. Bush had a 38.5% approval rating, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

That year, Democrats went on to pick up 30 House seats, winning control of the House for the first time in 12 years.

Current congressional ballot numbers and President Donald Trump’s approval rating looks eerily similar to those 2006 numbers.

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High-profile Congressional Republicans
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High-profile Congressional Republicans
Senator John McCain (R-AZ)
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
House of Representatives Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Senator Lindsey Graham
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)
Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC)
Senator Richard Burr (R-NC)
U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AL)
Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
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Trump currently has a 38.6% approval rating, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

In 2018, Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to win control of the House.

And Republican leaders are reportedly warning Trump that losing the House could be catastrophic — possibly leading to Trump’s impeachment.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had lunch with Trump on Monday to raise these concerns, warning him that attacks on congressional Republicans could hamper his agenda, according to a report from the Washington Examiner.

After that lunch, Trump held an impromptu joint news conference with McConnell to declare their relationship is good, and that Trump would encourage members of his party not to wage divisive primaries against sitting GOP lawmakers.

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President Trump hosts news conference in Rose Garden
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President Trump hosts news conference in Rose Garden
US President Donald Trump speaks to the press in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, October 16, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 16: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) talk to reporters in the Rose Garden following a lunch meeting at the White House October 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. Trump and McConnell tried to erase reporting that they were not on the same page with the GOP legislative agenda and priorities. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 16: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) talk to reporters in the Rose Garden following a lunch meeting at the White House October 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. Trump and McConnell tried to erase reporting that they were not on the same page with the GOP legislative agenda and priorities. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 16: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) talk to reporters in the Rose Garden following a lunch meeting at the White House October 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. Trump and McConnell tried to erase reporting that they were not on the same page with the GOP legislative agenda and priorities. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 16: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) talk to reporters in the Rose Garden following a lunch meeting at the White House October 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. Trump and McConnell tried to erase reporting that they were not on the same page with the GOP legislative agenda and priorities. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 16: U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) talk to reporters in the Rose Garden following a lunch meeting at the White House October 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. Trump and McConnell tried to erase reporting that they were not on the same page with the GOP legislative agenda and priorities. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 16: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Rose Garden during a news conference with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) following a lunch meeting at the White House October 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. Trump and McConnell tried to erase reporting that they were not on the same page with the GOP legislative agenda and priorities. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
U.S. President Donald Trump, left, speaks as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, listens during a news conference in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Monday, Oct. 16, 2017. Trump and McConnell appeared to give themselves some breathing room on their goal of completing a tax overhaul before year's end in remarks that emphasized the difficulty of passing major legislation. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 16: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) walk into the Rose Garden to talk to reporters following a lunch meeting at the White House October 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. Trump and McConnell tried to erase reporting that they were not on the same page with the GOP legislative agenda and priorities. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump leaves after speaking to the press in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, October 16, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
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