President Trump's budget would hit these states the hardest

The Trump administration unveiled a budget for 2018 on Tuesday that seeks to overhaul many of the country's safety-net programs for low-income and struggling Americans. Though these cuts are popular among Republican lawmakers, they affect programs that are actually more commonly used in Republican-leaning states than in Democratic ones, and that in many cases benefit white voters without college degrees — a demographic group that strongly supported President Donald Trump in the 2016 election.

The programs experiencing the deepest cuts provide assistance for health care services to children, the poor and disabled, and that supplement food and housing for those with low incomes. Most of the programs were created decades ago by Democratic presidents.

The president's budget reduces funding to the current welfare system and would impose more stringent work requirements as a condition of receiving benefits. The work requirement is popular among conservative think-tanks and has been frequently promoted by House Speaker Paul Ryan. The budget remains a wish list, however; many of its more draconian provisions are not widely popular in Congress and are considered likely to be rejected or changed.

NBC News examined the states with populations that benefit the most from the programs and would experience cuts under the proposed budget. The maps below are colored to show where those populations live.

The president's budget cuts $193 billion from food stamps, a program (now known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP) that provides extra money for food and groceries. Over the next 10 years, that amounts to a cut of 29 percent. More than 40 million Americans receive food stamp benefits.

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A sign on a frozen food case indicates that Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) and food stamps are accepted at the Dollar General Corp. store in Saddle Brook, New Jersey, U.S., on Saturday, Dec. 3, 2011. Dollar General is scheduled to announce earnings results on Dec. 5. Photographer: Emile Wamsteker/Bloomberg via Getty Images
UNITED STATES - OCTOBER 27: Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, D-D.C., right, and D.C. resident Vanessa Sherrie shop at the Safeway on 14th St., SE, to kick off the National Food Stamp Challenge. The challenge asks participants spend $31.50 on a week's worth of groceries, which is the average allotment of the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program, formerly called Food Stamps. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)
Supporters for passage of a new agriculture law rally near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2012. The farm legislation funds federal nutrition programs including food stamps, as well as subsidies to farmers that lower raw-materials costs for companies. Photographer: Rich Clement/Bloomberg via Getty Images
LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 17: Members of Progressive Democrats of America and other activists hold a rally in front of Rep. Henry Waxman's office on June 17, 2013 in Los Angeles, California. The protestors were asking the congressman to vote against a House farm bill that would reduce federal spending on the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program by $20.5 billion and affect food stamps and other services for the poor. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 17: Gracie Shannon-Sanborn, 5, holds a sign as she joins her father Allen Sanborn (L) and members of Progressive Democrats of America and other activists as they hold a rally in front of Rep. Henry Waxman's office on June 17, 2013 in Los Angeles, California. The protestors were asking the congressman to vote against a House farm bill that would reduce federal spending on the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program by $20.5 billion and affect food stamps and other services for the poor. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - MAY 01: Volunteers sort carrots at the SF-Marin Food Bank on May 1, 2014 in San Francisco, California. Food banks are bracing for higher food costs and an increased demand for food from the needy as food prices are skyrocketing due to a reduction in food stamps and drought conditions in several states. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - MAY 01: A worker wraps a pallet of donated produce at the SF-Marin Food Bank on May 1, 2014 in San Francisco, California. Food banks are bracing for higher food costs and an increased demand for food from the needy as food prices are skyrocketing due to a reduction in food stamps and drought conditions in several states. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
EAST LANSING, MI - FEBRUARY 7: U.S. President Barack Obama speaks about the Farm Bill, or the the Agriculture Act of 2014, into law after speaking about the importance of the Farm Bill to America's economy at Michigan State University February 7, 2014 in East Lansing, Michigan. Obama signed the largely bi-partisan legislation that reforms the farm insurance program and trims the food stamps by one percent. (Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)
EAST LANSING, MI - FEBRUARY 7: The stage sits ready for U.S. President Barack Obama to sign the Agriculture Act of 2014 into law in the Mary Anne McPhail Equine Performance Center at Michigan State University February 7, 2014 in East Lansing, Michigan. Obama will sign the largely bi-partisan legislation that reforms the farm insurance program and trims the food stamps by one percent. (Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 05: Brooklyn residents receive free food as part of a Bowery Mission outreach program on December 5, 2013 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The Christan ministry says it have seen a spike in need since food stamps to low-income families were reduced in November with cuts to the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)
BELLE GLADE, FL - APRIL 14: Yosef Muslet, a local business owner in Belle Glade says that he knows many seniors in the town that qualify for SNAP but will not apply. The sign (L) for food stamps shows that the program is administered with a credit card like payment system. He thinks some seniors think that food stamps are still stamps from a book that can be embarrassing when used. Many low-income seniors qualify to participate in the S.N.A.P. (food stamps) program but do not receive the benefit, often because they are too proud or unaware of it. Photo by Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post via Getty Images
WASHINGTON, DC- JULY 28: , Carl G. Purvenas-Smith (L) sells produce to Sunday Smith (C) and Vanessa Edwards at the Ward 8 Farmers Market Cooperative on Saturday, July 28th, 2012. Carl brings his produce from Terrapin Station Herb Farm in York, PA. Carl and several other farmers at the market accept cash, WIC coupons, food stamps, along with credit and debit cards. (Photo by Tracy A. Woodward/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
A sign on a frozen food case filled with ice cream and other desserts indicates that Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) and food stamps are accepted at the Dollar General Corp. store in Saddle Brook, New Jersey, U.S., on Saturday, Dec. 3, 2011. Dollar General is scheduled to announce earnings results on Dec. 5. Photographer: Emile Wamsteker/Bloomberg via Getty Images
PORTLAND, ME - NOVEMBER 23: Sindel Theberge, 7, points to a bag of Hershey's chocolate at at Mellen Street Market, which accepts EBT and food stamps, in Portland, ME on Monday, November 23, 2015. A new DHHS proposal is asking for a federal waiver to allow the department to ban purchase of junk food with EBT or food stamps. 'It's probably a good idea, it's not exactly nutritious to be buying candy,' Holly Plourde, Theberge's mother, said. (Photo by Whitney Hayward/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
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In order to achieve cost savings, the proposed changes add a work requirement for receiving benefits. "If you are on food stamps and you are able-bodied, we need you to go to work," said budget director Mick Mulvaney during a White House briefing on Monday.

The budget is not specific on how the work requirements will be implemented, but past examples cited by conservative think tanks provide a guide. All states in fact already have a work requirement for food stamps, though some have been granted waivers. Reforms to work requirements have focused on making requirements more strict, similar to Maine's recent policy changes, or nullifying waivers given to areas with higher unemployment.

Participation in the food stamp program is higher in the Rust Belt and the South. Areas that are more rural, with higher unemployment and periods of prolonged unemployment, are more likely to use food stamps and be hard-hit by a work requirement.

Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance (CHIP)

As NBC News has reported, Medicaid, which pays for health care for children and the disabled, is one of the hardest programs to cut. The expansion of the program under President Obama's health care program are popular and have been a critical sticking point during the House's efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Trump's budget makes $616 billion in cuts to Medicaid over 10 years, in addition to the $880 billion in cuts already in the House's health care bill, by changing the program's funding formula and rolling back the expansions provided by Obamacare. Combined, this amounts to a more than 25 percent cut to Medicaid and CHIP. The Congressional Budget Office estimated at least 10 million people would lose health insurance in an earlier scoring of the House's health care bill.

The changes in the bill will have profound effects in states that expanded Medicaid, which tend to vote Democratic. Many Republican states elected not to expand Medicaid following a successful Supreme Court challenge to Obamacare, but those states will also experience cuts. All states that did not expand Medicaid will see cuts to the program because of substantial changes to the funding formula.

Other programs

Social Security and Disability Insurance (SSDI)

On the campaign trail, the president promised that Social Security would not be touched. But the component of Social Security that helps those with disabilities is cut back in his budget. Almost 10 million people rely upon Social Security Disability Insurance. Trump's budget cuts the program by 2 percent over 10 years.

The map of these beneficiaries is similar to the food stamps map. Residents of battleground states won by Trump, including West Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Michigan, are more likely to be recipients. SSDI also tends to be critical to areas that experience high rates of injury during manual labor, like the Rust Belt, or in rural areas with more agricultural production, according to Jacob Leibenluft, senior adviser at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)

The TANF program, which mostly provides low-income assistance for food, utilities, housing, childcare and job-related expenses, is cut by $21 billion over 10 years in the president's budget. Trump's budget cuts TANF by 13 percent over that time span.

States in the South and Midwest tend to have a higher percentage of their populations taking advantage of the program. The program is utilized less in the Rust Belt than other entitlement programs. TANF has an existing work requirement, which is being used a model for cutting other entitlement programs.

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