The Fed isn't sure if Trump can deliver on his economic promises

Some members of the Federal Reserve aren't so sure the Trump boom is on its way.

In the release of the minutes for the Fed's March meeting, the members of the Federal Open Markets Committee discussed the possibility that a large fiscal stimulus driven by President Donald Trump and his administration would kick-start to the United States' economy.

Trump has promised to return the US to sustained 4% annual GDP growth (which he recently downgraded to a 3% target), slash taxes significantly, invest $1 trillion in infrastructure, expand job opportunities, and more.

However, the Fed doesn't believe that Trump will be able to get results this year. In fact, the uncertainty over Trump passing his reforms is so high that many members haven't even factored a Trump stimulus into their forecasts for the economy.

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Inside President Trump's first 70 days

Donald Trump is sworn in as president of the United States on January 20, 2017, outlining his "America first" vision in his inaugural address.

(Photo by Sarah L. Voisin/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Four million people around the world, including 500,000 in Washington, DC, attend the Women's March on January 21, 2017.

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Kellyanne Conway coins the term "alternative facts" after the administration made false claims about the number of people who attended Trump's inauguration.

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Trump signs an executive order withdrawing the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multilateral trade agreement.

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Trump orders the government to begin construction of the US-Mexico border wall and pulls federal funds from sanctuary cities.

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Trump signs his first immigration executive order, sparking nationwide protests.

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Trump nominates 10th Circuit Judge Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.

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Republican donor Betsy DeVos is confirmed as education secretary with a historic tie-breaking vote cast by Mike Pence — one of the most contentious confirmations ever.

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Michael Flynn resigns as National Security Adviser amid uproar over his communications with Russian officials.

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Trump announces that "the time for trivial fights is behind us" in a his first address to Congress.

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During his address to Congress, Trump honors Carryn Owens, whose husband, US Navy SEAL Ryan Owens, was killed during a raid in Yemen in January. The US-led attack is estimated to have killed 30 civilians, including 17 women and children, and 14 Al-Qaeda fighters.

(Photo via REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)

Canadian PM Justin Trudeau comes to Washington to announce the Canada-US Council for Advancement of Women Entrepreneurs and Business Leaders.

(Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu visits White House and Trump says he "can live with either" a one-state or a two-state solution, backing away from historic US support for Palestinian state.

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Trump tweets that the media is "the enemy of the American people," a day after a wide-ranging press briefing during which he lambasted the press for reporting "fake news" about his administration.

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After weeks of mounting pressure, Trump publicly condemns anti-Semitism in response to attacks on Jewish people and institutions across the country.

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The Trump administration cracks down on undocumented immigrants, speeding up deportations.

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Trump announces $54 billion increase in defense spending.

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Kellyanne Conway provokes outrage after being photographed sitting casually with her feet on an Oval Office couch.

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Attorney General Jeff Sessions recuses himself from investigations into the Trump campaign's ties to Russia after reports emerge that Sessions did not inform Congress of his meetings with the Russian ambassador during the campaign.

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Trump accuses Obama of secretly wiretapping his phones leading up to the 2016 election.

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Trump signs a revised travel ban, scaling back a few of the restrictions, in what Trump calls a "watered down version" of the original executive order. Two federal judges rule against the ban on March 15.

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Trump surprises a White House tour and poses with a young visitor in front of a portrait of Hillary Clinton

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US Attorney Preet Bharara says he was fired by the Trump administration after he refused to resign. Trump, as president-elect, had asked Bharara to stay on.

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Trump unveils his federal budget blueprint, proposing cuts to virtually every federal agency besides Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs, which would all receive boosts.

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Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visits the border of North and South Korea, announcing that the US may take pre-emptive action if the country continues expanding its nuclear weapons capability. In this photo, a North Korean soldier covertly photographs Tillerson from behind.

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Trump meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss NATO. Trump references reports that Merkel was spied on by Obama in 2013, joking he and Merkel "have something in common, perhaps."

(Photo by Samuel Corum/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

FBI Director James Comey confirms an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and the Trump's campaign's ties to Russian officials. Comey also tells Congress that he has no evidence to support Trump's claims that Obama wiretapped Trump Tower.

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Trump meets with truckers and CEOs at the White House and sits in the front seat of a Mack Truck.

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In a major setback for Trump, House Republicans pull legislation that would have repealed and replaced Obamacare before it can go to a vote.

(Photo by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Trump signs an executive order rolling back key Obama-era climate policies, including the Clean Power Plan.

(Photo via REUTERS/Carlos Barria)

Ivanka Trump announces that she will be an official White House employee, taking on an unpaid position as an adviser to her father, after facing criticism from ethics experts for her previously unofficial role.

(Photo by Andrew Harrer-Pool/Getty Images)

Rep. Devin Nunes announces that he has information that Trump and his associates may have been "incidentally" surveilled by American intelligence agencies, information The New York Times reported was given to him by two White House officials. Nunes says he will continue to chair the committee investigating the Trump campaign's ties to Russia, amid Democrats' protests.

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From the minutes (emphasis ours):

"Participants continued to underscore the considerable uncertainty about the timing and nature of potential changes to fiscal policies as well as the size of the effects of such changes on economic activity. However, several participants now anticipated that meaningful fiscal stimulus would likely not begin until 2018. In view of the substantial uncertainty, about half of the participants did not incorporate explicit assumptions about fiscal policy in their projections."

The statement comes at a time when the uncertainty of Trump's ability to follow through on his economic promises is growing. The stocks that would benefit most from Trump's plan to cut taxes have been lagging after efforts to get his healthcare reform bill stalled.

Additionally, after soaring following the election, positive sentiment surrounding the economy has stabilized, and recent "hard data" releases showed that actual economic activity is not keeping up with the sentiment boost.

Interestingly, some members of the Fed also noted that seemingly non-economic policies that Trump has thrown around could end up weighing on economic activity.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen mentioned the possible negative shocks of more restrictive immigration policies and the repeal of the Affordable Care Act in her most recent testimony to Congress in February.

"At the same time, some participants and their business contacts saw downside risks to labor force and economic growth from possible changes to other government policies, such as those affecting immigration and trade," the minutes said.

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