The Business Insider Electoral Projection: Matchup between Trump, Clinton is getting tighter!

With five days to go until Election Day, the race is tightening. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton still finds herself with enough projected electoral votes to secure the presidency — barely.

Using polling data from RealClearPolitics and The Washington Post/Survey Monkey, Business Insider found that Clinton, as of this week, would lead Trump 263-to-180 electoral votes in states that were either safe or likely bets to go in favor of either major party's nominee. It's a slight drop from Clinton's 272-to-181 advantage last week.

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Business Insider judged that a safe state was one in which a candidate led by at least 8 percentage points, while a likely state was anywhere in which the nominee held a 4- to 8-point lead.

When including states leaning toward a candidate by 2 to 4 points, Clinton held a 272-to-209 advantage over Trump. Last week, Clinton was up 292-to-187 when including this category.

Electoral college map 11 3 16 v2Business Insider/Andy Kiersz

There was plenty of shifting on the map in just one week — which was prior to Friday's bombshell letter from FBI Director James Comey to congressional leaders that the agency uncovered emails "pertinent" to the investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server.

North Carolina and Nevada went from leaning toward Clinton to dropping into the "toss-up" category. Ohio and Arizona moved from being toss-ups to leaning in favor of Trump. Iowa went from leaning toward Trump to becoming a toss-up. The toss-up states are where a major-party nominee held a lead of less than 2 points.

Must-win states for Donald Trump
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Must-win states for Donald Trump


Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pumps his fist in the air during a campaign rally at the Collier County Fairgrounds on October 23, 2016 in Naples, Florida. Early voting in Florida in the presidential election begins October 24. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)


US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a rally at The Champions Center Expo in Springfield, Ohio, on October 27, 2016. (Photo credit PAUL VERNON/AFP/Getty Images)


Donald Trump, 2016 Republican presidential nominee, speaks during the 2nd annual Roast and Ride hosted by Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican from Iowa, not pictured, in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., on Saturday, Aug. 27, 2016. Ernst, who in 2014 won the Senate seat vacated by Democrat Tom Harkin when he retired, has turned her Roast and Ride into the conservative answer to the Harkin's legendary Steak Fry fundraiser, which auditioned dozens of presidential candidates over its 37-year history. (Photo by Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

North Carolina

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to supporters at a rally on September 12, 2016 at U.S. Cellular Center in Asheville, North Carolina. Trump criticized Democratic rival Hillary Clinton for saying that half of his supporters belong in a 'basket of deplorables.' (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)


Other states that shifted to be less in favor of Clinton included Michigan, Indiana, Missouri, New Mexico, and Colorado, although all six stayed in favor of the candidate they had already been in slanted toward.

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