Brewing Atlantic system may strengthen into Tropical Storm Ian

By Renee Duff for AccuWeather.com

A system in the Atlantic could become the next tropical storm of the season early this week.

The area of low pressure and its associated showers and thunderstorms, located approximately 800 miles east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles, has become better organized over the past several days.

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"Future development of this system looks favorable during the next few days," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

The system will be moving into an environment with very little dry air and plentiful warm water, both favorable for strengthening. However, the system will have to contend with increasingly strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the next couple of days, which will deter better organization.

The next tropical storm to form will acquire the name Ian.

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Kottlowski expects this developing tropical system to continue on a northwest track along the periphery of a large high pressure area southwest of the Azores.

"On this projected path, the system will remain in the central North Atlantic far removed from land," Kottlowski said.

Any impacts are expected to remain well offshore of any land mass. The Leeward Islands may experience only an increase in surf over the next few days.

Shipping and cruise interests should continue to monitor the progress of the storm and review routes accordingly.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, two other areas of disturbed weather are currently being monitored.

One area of thunderstorms is currently located near the central Bahamas and is expected to continue on a west-northwest path over the next few days.

The system's movement across an unfavorable environment is expected to inhibit the system from developing, Kottlowski said. However, the disturbance is expected to enhance showers and heavy thunderstorms across the Bahamas and Florida early this week.

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The second area being watched is a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands. This system will be monitored for development toward the end of this week, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Ed Vallee.

Meanwhile in the East Pacific, Hurricane Orlene, which is currently located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, continues to churn northwestward over open waters. At this time, the storm is not expected to be a threat to land.

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While the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is now in the rearview mirror (Sept. 10), climatology still favors additional tropical waves emerging from West Africa and potentially developing in the eastern tropical Atlantic, AccuWeather Meteorologist Jordan Root said.

Folks in the Caribbean and the United States should not let their guard down as the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.