Donald Trump says violent crime is on the rise, and a new study says he might be right
A new report published by the Major Cities Chiefs Association said that violent crime – homicides, rapes, robberies, assaults and shootings – is on the rise nationwide.
The troubling results, though just one survey, could provide vindication to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. President Barack Obama has contested Trump's assertion – made prominently in his nomination acceptance speech last week – that crime is a national epidemic and major problem.
The mid-year violent crime survey, released Monday, shows 307 more homicides so far in 2016, according to data compiled from 51 law enforcement agencies from some of America's largest cities, including Chicago, Los Angeles and New York. There have also been 1,000 more robberies, approximately 2,000 more aggravated assaults, and 600 more nonfatal shootings in 2016 compared to this time in 2015. The only type of of violent crime not showing an increase is rape.
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The 316 homicides reported by Chicago, the president's hometown, were the most concerning figure – a 48 percent increase from last year. Trump has pointed to Chicago's problems with homicide in the past, and noted the city's connection to the president during the RNC.
"In the president's hometown of Chicago, more than 2,000 people have been the victims of shootings this year alone. And almost 4,000 have been killed in the Chicago area since he took office," Trump told delegates Thursday in Cleveland.
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Violent Crime Rates in The United States FindTheHome
There are numerous theories behind the increase in crime, including the "Ferguson effect" – that police are more skittish to enforce laws for fear of backlash. New federal guidelines meant to cut down on police mistakes, and the end of such practices as "stop and frisk" in New York City are also possible reasons behind an increase in violent crime.
"Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed by this administration's rollback of criminal enforcement," Trump said Thursday.
But crime was much higher in the 1970s, 80s and 90s, and was a major political issue, inspiring a bipartisan desire to get tough. Even then-Rep. Bernie Sanders voted for the now-controversial 1994 National Crime Bill. Scholars differ on why crime dropped, but major legislation, and different police tactics were employed at the same time as the decline. And some of those tactics, like stop and frisk, are now being rolled back.
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Trump and his allies, such as former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani, argue that the rollback in enforcement is a mistake and that the Obama administration and Democrats are demonizing police. Obama has conceded a mild spike in crime, but contested the idea that it's a major concern.
"This idea that America is somehow on the verge of collapse, this vision of violence and chaos everywhere, doesn't really jibe with the experience of most people," Obama said Friday.
"Although it is true that we've seen an uptick in murders and violent crime in some cities this year, the fact of the matter is that the murder rate today, the violence rate today is far lower than it was when Ronald Reagan was president and lower than when I took office," Obama said.
