Oscars 2020: Harvard math grad uses data to predict winners with near-perfect accuracy

Oscar winners can be hard to predict, but for one Academy Awards soothsayer, it pays to have math on your side.

At least that’s the thinking of Harvard Applied Mathematics grad and “Oscarmetrics” author Ben Zauzmer, who uses data from the year’s earlier award ceremonies, like the Golden Globes and the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA), to predict Academy Award winners with near-perfect accuracy.

In his most impressive year, Zauzmer’s 2018 Oscar picks went an impressive 20 for 21 — and correctly predicted what many considered to be an upset Best Picture victory for “The Shape of Water.”

“I’ve gathered a bunch of data from previous years — different award shows, which other categories a film is nominated in, Rotten Tomatoes scores — anything I can put a number on and I look in each category and see how good has this predictor done at predicting the Oscars in the past,” Zauzmer explained on Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM. “Things that have done a better job get more weight.” 

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HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: An image of the late Freddie Mercury is projected onto a screen while Adam Lambert + Queen perform onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Member of British rock band Queen Brian May and US singer-songwriter Adam Lambert performs during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24:(EDITORS NOTE: Retransmission with alternate crop.) Lady Gaga and Rami Malek during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Maya Rudolph, Tina Fey, and Amy Poehler speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Regina King accepts the Actress in a Supporting Role award for 'If Beale Street Could Talk' from Maya Rudolph onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Regina King accepts the Actress in a Supporting Role award for 'If Beale Street Could Talk' onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
British actress Helen Mirren and actor Jason Mamoa present an award during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (EDITORS NOTE: Retransmission with alternate crop.) (l-R) Marina de Tavira and Emma Stone attend the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Stephan James and Elsie Fisher speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
The crew of 'Free Solo' accepts the Oscar for Best Documentary during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Melissa McCarthy and Brian Tyree Henry speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Melissa McCarthy speaks onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Best Costume Design nominee for 'Black Panther' Ruth E. Carter accepts her Oscar during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, and Patricia Dehaney accept the Makeup and Hairstyling award for 'Vice' onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (EDITORS NOTE: Retransmission with alternate crop.) (L-R) Spike Lee and Rami Malek attend the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Best Cinematography nominee for 'Roma' Alfonso Cuaron accepts the award for Best Cinematography during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Jay Hart and Hannah Beachler accept the Production Design award for 'Black Panther' onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart accept the Production Design award for 'Black Panther' onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (EDITORS NOTE: Retransmission with alternate crop.) (L-R) Jennifer Lopez and Chris Evans speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Jennifer Hudson performs onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Laura Dern speaks onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Best Supporting Actor nominee for 'Green Book' Mahershala Ali accepts the award for Best Supporting Actor during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Michelle Yeoh and Pharrell Williams speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Michael Keaton speaks onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Daniel Craig and Charlize Theron walk onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) TYLER PERRY
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Mahershala Ali during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Lady Gaga during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) James McAvoy and Danai Gurira speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Comedian Trevor Noah presents an award during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (EDITORS NOTE: Retransmission with alternate crop.) Brian May and Adam Lambert onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Mexican director Alfonso Cuaron kisses Mexican actress Yalitza Aparicio during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24:(EDITORS NOTE: Retransmission with alternate crop.) (L-R) Marc Shaiman and Bette Midler perform onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Us Singer Bette Midler performs during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Keegan-Michael Key is lowered to the floor during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Keegan-Michael Key is lowered to the floor during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Javier Bardem and Angela Bassett present the Foreign Language Film award for 'Roma' to Alfonso Cuaron onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Best Animated Short Film nominees for 'Bao' Domee Shi (R) and Becky Neiman-Cobb accepts the award for Best Animated Short Film during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. Ms. Streisand is wearing a vintage Chanel gown made of leather and sequins. The long sequin sweater is an old Donna Karan piece from her closet. Additionally the antique pin is hers from many years ago.(Eric McCandless via Getty Images)BARBRA STREISAND
Actress and rapper Awkwafina and John Mullaney present an award during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
Comedian Mike Myers (L) and Dana Carvey present an award during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Kacey Musgraves speaks onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) David Rawlings and Gillian Welch perform onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Mahershala Ali and Amatus Sami-Karim attend the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Tessa Thompson and Michael B. Jordan speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Krysten Ritter and KiKi Layne speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Lady Gaga, and Anthony Rossomando accept the Music (Original Song) award for 'Shallow' from 'A Star Is Born' onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Lady Gaga accept the Best Original Song award for 'Shallow' onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) MELISSA BERTON, RAYKA ZEHTABCHI
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Brie Larson and Samuel L. Jackson speak onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) ALFONSO CUARON
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) SARAH PAULSON, PAUL RUDD
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper perform onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Best Adapted Screenplay nominee for 'BlacKkKlansman' Spike Lee embraces actor Samuel L. Jackson as he accepts the award for Best Original Screenplay during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
Best Actress nominee for 'The Favourite' Olivia Colman accepts the award for Best Actress during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: Lady Gaga during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CA - FEBRUARY 24: In this handout provided by A.M.P.A.S., Lady Gaga poses with the Music (Original Song) award for 'Shallow' from 'A Star Is Born' backstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Matt Sayles - Handout/A.M.P.A.S. via Getty Images)
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) AMANDLA STENBERG, REP. JOHN LEWIS
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) RAMI MALEK
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) GUILLERMO DEL TORO
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) GARY OLDMAN, ALLISON JANNEY
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Alfonso Cuaron and Yalitza Aparicio react after Mr. Cuaron was announced as winner of the Cinematography award for 'Roma' onstage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 24: (L-R) Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen attend the 91st Annual Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre on February 24, 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
The producer of Best Picture nominee 'Green Book' Peter Farrelly accepts the award for Best Picture with the whole crew on stage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
Producers of Best Picture nominee 'Green Book' Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga accepts the award for Best Picture with the whole crew on stage during the 91st Annual Academy Awards at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California on February 24, 2019. (Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo credit should read VALERIE MACON/AFP/Getty Images)
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) BARBRA STREISAND
THE OSCARS® - The 91st Oscars® broadcasts live on Sunday, Feb. 24, 2019, at the Dolby Theatre® at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood and will be televised live on The ABC Television Network at 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST. (Craig Sjodin via Getty Images) CHARLIE WACHTEL, SPIKE LEE, DAVID RABINOWITZ, KEVIN WILLMOTT
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This year, Zauzmer’s model is again predicting who we might see thanking the Academy come Sunday:

Best Actor prediction

“Joker” actor Joaquin Phoenix has been nominated for an Oscar three times in prior years, but has never won. This year, however, Zauzmer is predicting Phoenix has the best chance to take home Best Actor honors with about a 93% chance of winning the category.

“Joaquin Phoenix has won nearly everything there is to win for his terrifying performance as the Joker,” Zauzmer said.

Perhaps this year, Phoenix’s crowning accomplishment for the role will be that ever-elusive Oscar win.

Joaquin Phoenix has a good shot at winning his first Oscar for his performance in Joker, according to Zauzmer's model.

Best Actress prediction

Things are looking just as lopsided statistically for the frontrunner in the battle for Best Actress. In Zauzmer’s model, “Judy” actress Renee Zellweger has about a 90% chance to take home the Oscar.

“To make matters easier for her, the Golden Globe winner for musical or comedy actress, Akwafina, wasn’t even nominated here so that really clears the path for Renee Zellweger,” Zauzmer said.

Renee Zellweger is the heavy favorite to win Best Actress, according to Zauzmer's modeling.

Best Director prediction

The award for Best Director is always hotly contested, and this year is a similar story with established icons like Martin Scorsese and Quentin Tarantino both getting nominated. However, neither Hollywood juggernaut is favored to win the category on Sunday in Zauzmer’s model.

Instead, 1917 director Sam Medes is the favorite to win, with “Parasite” director Bong Joon Ho slightly behind at about a 20% chance.

“It’s looking like the math likes the guy who hasn’t won it in 20 years,” Zauzmer said about Mendes. “It’s just above that 50-50 mark.”

Sam Mendes is favored to win the Oscar for Best Director, according to Zauzmer's data.

Best Supporting Actor prediction

The lopsidedness of predicting winners doesn’t stop at the leading role. For the category of Best Supporting Actor, Zazumer is projecting an easy win for Brad Pitt, who has infamously been shut out at the Academy Awards for acting roles, despite being nominated three times in prior individual categories.

“Brad Pitt did win an Oscar for producing ‘12 Years a Slave,’ but has never won an acting Oscar,” Zauzmer said. “The math says there’s a 91% bet that changes for his role as a stuntman in ‘Once Upon a Time In Hollywood.’”

Brad Pitt has a leading chance to win his first Oscar for an individual acting role for his part in Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, Zauzmer's model predicts.

Best Supporting Actress prediction

The same odds apply to the favorite in the category of Best Supporting Actress. For her supporting role in “Marriage Story,” actress Laura Dern is a more than 90% favorite to win the Oscar for the category.

“It’s a pretty rare year that all of the acting categories are so lopsided, that doesn’t happen very often,” Zauzmer said. “But this time around Laura Dern seems to be winning the Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and so on, and therefore is likely to take home the Oscar.”

Laura Dern is favorited to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for her role in Marriage Story, according to Zauzmer's model.

Best Picture prediction

Seemingly the hardest major category to predict this year, as has been the case in the past, is the the Oscar for Best Picture. With only about a 37% chance to win, this year’s favorite is 1917. But as Zauzmer notes, that’s hardly a guaranteed outcome.

“You still would take the field over it at only 37%, and you can’t rule out Parasite or Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, or The Irishman,” Zauzmer said. “But 1917, winner of the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, BAFTAs and top honors for drama at the Golden Globes, is your frontrunner.”

Zauzmer predicts 1917 to be the favorite for this year's Best Picture, but it still could potentially be upset by a swath of films in double digit territory, including Parasite.

For all a complete list of Zauzmer’s Academy Awards picks, you can check out his article at The Hollywood Reporter.

Zack Guzman is the host of YFi PM as well as a senior writer and on-air reporter covering entrepreneurship, cannabis, startups, and breaking news at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @zGuz.

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