'We're really overdue' for a recession, expert says

As the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China continue to shake up markets, some indicators are pointing toward a recession in the near-term.

Rebecca Walser, president of Walser Wealth Management, told Yahoo Finance that the recent dip in the 10-year Treasury yield is one of the signals of an impending economic downturn.

“The inverted yield curve alone has been a very good barometer...of a coming recession,” Walser told Yahoo Finance’s YFI AM. “If you look at economic cycles, we're really overdue.”

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.690% on Monday, dipping 4.1 basis points.

RELATED: What does a recession mean for consumers?

What Does a Recession Mean for Consumers?
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What Does a Recession Mean for Consumers?
With the threat of a recession looming above us, Americans are beginning to ask: What would a recession mean for me and my family?

The experts at WalletPop.com take a look at how a recession could impact 13 facets of your financial life -- and what steps you should take to make it through the economic storm.

Click through our gallery to see what to expect and what you should or shouldn't do during a recession.

Next: If You're in Retirement ...
"These are the people who are most likely to be impacted by the decline we've seen in the stock market. The closer you get to retirement, the more of your assets should be shifted over to things that aren't going to lose their value. You're trying to preserve the value you've accumulated," says Tracy Clark, an economist with the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.
' More on Recession & Retirement

Next: If You Own Stocks ...
Don't panic and start selling just because you hear warnings of a recession. You may be locking in losses that are not necessary, especially if the assets in your portfolio are being held for the long-term and you won't need them for ten or more years.

' More on Recession & Your Stocks

Next: If You Have a 401(k) ...
Unfortunately, it's impossible to "recession-proof" your 401(k), because no sector is immune from an economic slowdown. You can, however, take some precautions to limit the damage. For one thing, stay the course. Unless you are in dire financial straits, don't cut back or quit contributing to your retirement fund.

' More on Recession & Your 401(k)

Next: If You Need a New Car ...
With recession fears growing, it might not seem like a great time to think about a new car. But if you want (or need) a new vehicle you might actually be able to benefit from the challenging economic conditions. The combination of desperate auto makers, motivated auto dealers and lower interest rates makes it an auto buyers market.

' More on Recession & Car Buying

Next: If You Started a New Biz ...
If you've recently started your own business, the potential for a recession may have you in a panic. But there are ways to try to weather the storm. For example, try to diversify. Look for new types of customers or a new way to market your offerings. Also, continue to market yourself. It's tempting to cut back on advertising while money is tight. But, in fact, a downturn may actually require more marketing efforts to stay in the game.
' More on Recession & a New Biz

Next: If You Need a Loan ...
While a recession creates many economic woes, those who are in the market for a loan (mortgage or otherwise) can often find value during these times. Rates are low, which makes it a great opportunity to refinance your house or tap your home equity to fund a long-term worthwhile venture. There are some cautions, though. Click the link for more advice.

' More on Recession & Loans

Next: Consolidate Debt?
But for all but the most disciplined and job-secure of folks, consolidating your debts into your mortgage in a recession environment is possibly the worst thing to do. If rates should go up, or you suffer a sudden income reduction, it will be much harder to cover your mortgage payments. Plus: Having a clean slate with credit cards often has the wrong effect on people.
' More on Recession & Consolidation

Next: If Bank Has You Worried ...
Your bank accounts are FDIC-insured up to $100,000, but if you are staying up at night worrying over the solvency of your bank -- move your money. Why? Most banks are similar enough that there's really no reason to keep money with one that makes you worry.

' More on Recessions & Your Bank

Next: If You Have Card Debt ...
To protect your family and your finances during these very uncertain times, it is critical that you batten down the hatches and prepare to ride this out. One critical way to do that is by tackling your credit card debt. You DON'T need a lot of money to make an immediate dent in your debt. Armed with three simple steps and even $10 extra a month, you can take a big bite out of your credit card debt. Click on the link to get started.
' More on Recession & Card Debt

Next: Buying a House
Now may be the right time to begin investigating your home-buying options. We are in the throes of a double downswing of the costs associated with entering the single family home market. As real estate prices are deflating regionally, the interest rates on first mortgage loans to buy those properties are at rock-bottom levels. Deflated real estate markets aren't always bad things, when you're in the mood to buy some. Click below to see some of the things you should consider if you want to buy in today's climate.
' More on Recession & Home Buying
Next: Heading to College
Parents of college-bound seniors everywhere are blanching. A lot of financial ugliness is coming down the pike, and here you are, ready to be hit with a whole new phalanx of expenses. What's a parent to do? Strongly consider the community college option. Unless your kid got a full ride to their first pick university, It makes too strong financial sense not to examine this option closely.

' More on Recession & College

Next: Short on Cash
Freelance writers frequently lead a feast or famine lifestyle. Out of necessity, they learn how to prepare for funds running low. Here are some of their key tips: First off, in feast times, have a stash of cash, a couple hundred dollars tucked deep away. When you have NO MORE money at all, this stash will buy your kids' their milk and you a gallon of gasoline. Other tips: Save all change, know thy pawnshops, babysit or teach a class, if you've got skills to share.
' More on Recession & Empty Pockets

Next: If You're Laid Off ...
First things first: File for unemployment immediately. Don't miss any benefits you're due. Get some help with your resume and begin your job search right away. Then take a hard look at your family's budget and see where you can immediately cut costs. Come up with a worst-case scenario budget.
' More on Recession & Layoffs

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“Everything is cyclical, including this economy, even though President Trump doesn't want it to be the case,” Walser said.

The president’s own recent threat of a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods beginning September 1, coupled with the anti-government activism in Hong Kong, has been sending global markets into a frenzy that’s unlikely to calm down any time soon.

Protester are seen in Hong Kong International Airport in Hong Kong on August 12, 2019 , Tens of Thousands Protester are seen gather in Hong Kong international airport in protest of Police Brutally and the extradition bill -- Protester Clash with Police yesterday in Hong Kong -- Hong Kong International Airport suspended Flight Operation at at 15:45 Local Time Today. (Photo by Vernon Yuen/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

A recent report from Societe Generale said the probability of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China being resolved before the 2020 election is “less than 50%.”

“The U.S. decision to label China a currency manipulator sets a dangerous precedent, also for other U.S. trade negotiations, as the decision is inconsistent with the rules the U.S. has established,” the report said.

Walser agreed, telling YFi AM that China is probably looking to hold out on a deal until Trump’s first term is up.

“China strategically...is just trying to outlive Trump,” she said. “If he doesn't get re-elected, they'll succeed.

“President Trump, though, has a lot of things up his sleeve,” Walser added. “I wouldn't count him out. He is an immaculate chess player.”


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