Traders largely aren't moved by President Donald Trump's tweets on trade, except in the soybeans market.
China relies on soybeans imported from the US to restrain the price of pork, a major staple protein in the country.
Economists at Goldman Sachs used a regression analysis to look into the relationship between Trump's tweets and the performance of various asset classes.
President Donald Trump's tweets on trade don't mean much to traders except in the soybeans market, according to Goldman Sachs.
Economists at the firm looked into the link between Trump's tweets on trade and stock-market volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX. They found that traders largely shrugged off Trump's tweets containing the words "trade" or "tariff," even as the US engaged in disputes with China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.
Trump's most outlandish and bombastic tweets of 2017
Trump's most outlandish and bombastic tweets of 2017
The "Intelligence" briefing on so-called "Russian hacking" was delayed until Friday, perhaps more time needed to build a case. Very strange!
Meryl Streep, one of the most over-rated actresses in Hollywood, doesn't know me but attacked last night at the Golden Globes. She is a.....
Intelligence agencies should never have allowed this fake news to "leak" into the public. One last shot at me.Are we living in Nazi Germany?
Crooked Hillary Clinton now blames everybody but herself, refuses to say she was a terrible candidate. Hits Facebook & even Dems & DNC.
What are Hillary Clinton's people complaining about with respect to the F.B.I. Based on the information they had she should never.....
have been allowed to run - guilty as hell. They were VERY nice to her. She lost because she campaigned in the wrong states - no enthusiasm!
Crooked H destroyed phones w/ hammer, 'bleached' emails, & had husband meet w/AG days before she was cleared- & they talk about obstruction?
Hillary Clinton colluded with the Democratic Party in order to beat Crazy Bernie Sanders. Is she allowed to so collude? Unfair to Bernie!
I was recently asked if Crooked Hillary Clinton is going to run in 2020? My answer was, "I hope so!"
Congressman John Lewis should spend more time on fixing and helping his district, which is in horrible shape and falling apart (not to......
mention crime infested) rather than falsely complaining about the election results. All talk, talk, talk - no action or results. Sad!
Congressman John Lewis should finally focus on the burning and crime infested inner-cities of the U.S. I can use all the help I can get!
.@NBCNews is bad but Saturday Night Live is the worst of NBC. Not funny, cast is terrible, always a complete hit job. Really bad television!
Writing my inaugural address at the Winter White House, Mar-a-Lago, three weeks ago. Looking forward to Friday.… https://t.co/J0ojOXjrga
I will be asking for a major investigation into VOTER FRAUD, including those registered to vote in two states, those who are illegal and....
even, those registered to vote who are dead (and many for a long time). Depending on results, we will strengthen up voting procedures!
If the ban were announced with a one week notice, the "bad" would rush into our country during that week. A lot of bad "dudes" out there!
Everybody is arguing whether or not it is a BAN. Call it what you want, it is about keeping bad people (with bad intentions) out of country!
The opinion of this so-called judge, which essentially takes law-enforcement away from our country, is ridiculous and will be overturned!
Deleted after approximately 1 minute. Followed by this tweet, which wasn't deleted.
The FAKE NEWS media (failing @nytimes, @NBCNews, @ABC, @CBS, @CNN) is not my enemy, it is the enemy of the American People!
Sen.Richard Blumenthal, who never fought in Vietnam when he said for years he had (major lie),now misrepresents what Judge Gorsuch told him?
Chris Cuomo, in his interview with Sen. Blumenthal, never asked him about his long-term lie about his brave "service" in Vietnam. FAKE NEWS!
Watching Senator Richard Blumenthal speak of Comey is a joke. "Richie" devised one of the greatest military frauds in U.S. history. For....
years, as a pol in Connecticut, Blumenthal would talk of his great bravery and conquests in Vietnam - except he was never there. When....
caught, he cried like a baby and begged for forgiveness...and now he is judge & jury. He should be the one who is investigated for his acts.
I think Senator Blumenthal should take a nice long vacation in Vietnam, where he lied about his service, so he can at least say he was there
SEE YOU IN COURT, THE SECURITY OF OUR NATION IS AT STAKE!
I know Mark Cuban well. He backed me big-time but I wasn't interested in taking all of his calls.He's not smart enough to run for president!
Congratulations to Thomas Perez, who has just been named Chairman of the DNC. I could not be happier for him, or for the Republican Party!
We should start an immediate investigation into @SenSchumer and his ties to Russia and Putin. A total hypocrite! https://t.co/Ik3yqjHzsA
Terrible! Just found out that Obama had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory. Nothing found. This is McCarthyism!
Is it legal for a sitting President to be "wire tapping" a race for president prior to an election? Turned down by court earlier. A NEW LOW!
I'd bet a good lawyer could make a great case out of the fact that President Obama was tapping my phones in October, just prior to Election!
How low has President Obama gone to tapp my phones during the very sacred election process. This is Nixon/Watergate. Bad (or sick) guy!
Wow, the ratings are in and Arnold Schwarzenegger got "swamped" (or destroyed) by comparison to the ratings machine, DJT. So much for....
being a movie star-and that was season 1 compared to season 14. Now compare him to my season 1. But who cares, he supported Kasich & Hillary
Arnold Schwarzenegger isn't voluntarily leaving the Apprentice, he was fired by his bad (pathetic) ratings, not by me. Sad end to great show
Can you imagine what the outcry would be if @SnoopDogg, failing career and all, had aimed and fired the gun at President Obama? Jail time!
Mike Flynn should ask for immunity in that this is a witch hunt (excuse for big election loss), by media & Dems, of historic proportion!
President Andrew Jackson, who died 16 years before the Civil War started, saw it coming and was angry. Would never have let it happen!
James Comey better hope that there are no "tapes" of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!
With all of the illegal acts that took place in the Clinton campaign & Obama Administration, there was never a special counsel appointed!
Russian officials must be laughing at the U.S. & how a lame excuse for why the Dems lost the election has taken over the Fake News.
The now-infamous "covfefe" tweet was deleted shortly after it was sent. He followed it with this tweet.
Who can figure out the true meaning of "covfefe" ??? Enjoy!
Kathy Griffin should be ashamed of herself. My children, especially my 11 year old son, Barron, are having a hard time with this. Sick!
At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and Mayor of London says there is "no reason to be alarmed!"
Pathetic excuse by London Mayor Sadiq Khan who had to think fast on his "no reason to be alarmed" statement. MSM is working hard to sell it!
People, the lawyers and the courts can call it whatever they want, but I am calling it what we need and what it is, a TRAVEL BAN!
The Justice Dept. should have stayed with the original Travel Ban, not the watered down, politically correct version they submitted to S.C.
The Justice Dept. should ask for an expedited hearing of the watered down Travel Ban before the Supreme Court - & seek much tougher version!
In any event we are EXTREME VETTING people coming into the U.S. in order to help keep our country safe. The courts are slow and political!
That's right, we need a TRAVEL BAN for certain DANGEROUS countries, not some politically correct term that won't help us protect our people!
The FAKE MSM is working so hard trying to get me not to use Social Media. They hate that I can get the honest and unfiltered message out.
Despite so many false statements and lies, total and complete vindication...and WOW, Comey is a leaker!
They made up a phony collusion with the Russians story, found zero proof, so now they go for obstruction of justice on the phony story. Nice
After 7 months of investigations & committee hearings about my "collusion with the Russians," nobody has been able to show any proof. Sad!
I am being investigated for firing the FBI Director by the man who told me to fire the FBI Director! Witch Hunt
The reason that President Obama did NOTHING about Russia after being notified by the CIA of meddling is that he expected Clinton would win..
...and did not want to "rock the boat." He didn't "choke," he colluded or obstructed, and it did the Dems and Crooked Hillary no good.
The real story is that President Obama did NOTHING after being informed in August about Russian meddling. With 4 months looking at Russia...
..under a magnifying glass, they have zero "tapes" of T people colluding. There is no collusion & no obstruction. I should be given apology!
I heard poorly rated @Morning_Joe speaks badly of me (don't watch anymore). Then how come low I.Q. Crazy Mika, along with Psycho Joe, came..
...to Mar-a-Lago 3 nights in a row around New Year's Eve, and insisted on joining me. She was bleeding badly from a face-lift. I said no!
Crazy Joe Scarborough and dumb as a rock Mika are not bad people, but their low rated show is dominated by their NBC bosses. Too bad!
#FraudNewsCNN #FNN https://t.co/WYUnHjjUjg
Putin & I discussed forming an impenetrable Cyber Security unit so that election hacking, & many other negative things, will be guarded..
...and safe. Questions were asked about why the CIA & FBI had to ask the DNC 13 times for their SERVER, and were rejected, still don't....
...have it. Fake News said 17 intel agencies when actually 4 (had to apologize). Why did Obama do NOTHING when he had info before election?
Most politicians would have gone to a meeting like the one Don jr attended in order to get info on an opponent. That's politics!
While all agree the U. S. President has the complete power to pardon, why think of that when only crime so far is LEAKS against us.FAKE NEWS
So many people are asking why isn't the A.G. or Special Council looking at the many Hillary Clinton or Comey crimes. 33,000 e-mails deleted?
So why aren't the Committees and investigators, and of course our beleaguered A.G., looking into Crooked Hillarys crimes & Russia relations?
Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Trump campaign - "quietly working to boost Clinton." So where is the investigation A.G. @seanhannity
Attorney General Jeff Sessions has taken a VERY weak position on Hillary Clinton crimes (where are E-mails & DNC server) & Intel leakers!
Why didn't A.G. Sessions replace Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, a Comey friend who was in charge of Clinton investigation but got....
...big dollars ($700,000) for his wife's political run from Hillary Clinton and her representatives. Drain the Swamp!
After consultation with my Generals and military experts, please be advised that the United States Government will not accept or allow......
....Transgender individuals to serve in any capacity in the U.S. Military. Our military must be focused on decisive and overwhelming.....
....victory and cannot be burdened with the tremendous medical costs and disruption that transgender in the military would entail. Thank you
I love the White House, one of the most beautiful buildings (homes) I have ever seen. But Fake News said I called it a dump - TOTALLY UNTRUE
Tweet was deleted shortly after it was posted.
Sad to see the history and culture of our great country being ripped apart with the removal of our beautiful statues and monuments. You.....
...can't change history, but you can learn from it. Robert E Lee, Stonewall Jackson - who's next, Washington, Jefferson? So foolish! Also...
...the beauty that is being taken out of our cities, towns and parks will be greatly missed and never able to be comparably replaced!
Strange statement by Bob Corker considering that he is constantly asking me whether or not he should run again in '18. Tennessee not happy!
Senator Bob Corker "begged" me to endorse him for re-election in Tennessee. I said "NO" and he dropped out (said he could not win without...
..my endorsement). He also wanted to be Secretary of State, I said "NO THANKS." He is also largely responsible for the horrendous Iran Deal!
...Hence, I would fully expect Corker to be a negative voice and stand in the way of our great agenda. Didn't have the guts to run!
...the entire World WAS laughing and taking advantage of us. People like liddle' Bob Corker have set the U.S. way back. Now we move forward!
I am pleased to inform you that I have just granted a full Pardon to 85 year old American patriot Sheriff Joe Arpaio. He kept Arizona safe!
Going to the White House is considered a great honor for a championship team.Stephen Curry is hesitating,therefore invitation is withdrawn!
If a player wants the privilege of making millions of dollars in the NFL,or other leagues, he or she should not be allowed to disrespect....
...our Great American Flag (or Country) and should stand for the National Anthem. If not, YOU'RE FIRED. Find something else to do!
Roger Goodell of NFL just put out a statement trying to justify the total disrespect certain players show to our country.Tell them to stand!
If NFL fans refuse to go to games until players stop disrespecting our Flag & Country, you will see change take place fast. Fire or suspend!
...NFL attendance and ratings are WAY DOWN. Boring games yes, but many stay away because they love our country. League should back U.S.
Great solidarity for our National Anthem and for our Country. Standing with locked arms is good, kneeling is not acceptable. Bad ratings!
Ratings for NFL football are way down except before game starts, when people tune in to see whether or not our country will be disrespected!
The booing at the NFL football game last night, when the entire Dallas team dropped to its knees, was loudest I have ever heard. Great anger
Even Usain Bolt from Jamaica, one of the greatest runners and athletes of all time, showed RESPECT for our National… https://t.co/9qg8sjf4t8
Marshawn Lynch of the NFL’s Oakland Raiders stands for the Mexican Anthem and sits down to boos for our National An… https://t.co/5P18NSv8ZW
The Mayor of San Juan, who was very complimentary only a few days ago, has now been told by the Democrats that you must be nasty to Trump.
...Such poor leadership ability by the Mayor of San Juan, and others in Puerto Rico, who are not able to get their workers to help. They....
...want everything to be done for them when it should be a community effort. 10,000 Federal workers now on Island doing a fantastic job.
Being nice to Rocket Man hasn't worked in 25 years, why would it work now? Clinton failed, Bush failed, and Obama failed. I won't fail.
The Chinese Envoy, who just returned from North Korea, seems to have had no impact on Little Rocket Man. Hard to be… https://t.co/ZySsGTqQHp
The Fake News is going crazy with wacky Congresswoman Wilson(D), who was SECRETLY on a very personal call, and gave a total lie on content!
Sorry, but this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why aren't Crooked Hillary & the Dems the focus?????
Why would Kim Jong-un insult me by calling me "old," when I would NEVER call him "short and fat?" Oh well, I try so… https://t.co/PmsWNkH4r4
Do you think the three UCLA Basketball Players will say thank you President Trump? They were headed for 10 years in jail!
Now that the three basketball players are out of China and saved from years in jail, LaVar Ball, the father of LiAn… https://t.co/371qJ1biwh
Shoplifting is a very big deal in China, as it should be (5-10 years in jail), but not to father LaVar. Should have… https://t.co/TyDMChjEIM
It wasn’t the White House, it wasn’t the State Department, it wasn’t father LaVar’s so-called people on the ground… https://t.co/U895bwpOnK
...LaVar, you could have spent the next 5 to 10 years during Thanksgiving with your son in China, but no NBA contra… https://t.co/R7yb95fkUw
The Al Frankenstien picture is really bad, speaks a thousand words. Where do his hands go in pictures 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6 while she sleeps? .....
@ThePlumLineGS MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Wow, Matt Lauer was just fired from NBC for “inappropriate sexual behavior in the workplace.” But when will the top… https://t.co/xvaYsbO0le
So now that Matt Lauer is gone when will the Fake News practitioners at NBC be terminating the contract of Phil Gri… https://t.co/6vWDKTgCQG
So General Flynn lies to the FBI and his life is destroyed, while Crooked Hillary Clinton, on that now famous FBI h… https://t.co/OPFBHVaU1Z
.@DaveWeigel @WashingtonPost put out a phony photo of an empty arena hours before I arrived @ the venue, w/ thousan… https://t.co/3sbs38FyaF
.@daveweigel of the Washington Post just admitted that his picture was a FAKE (fraud?) showing an almost empty aren… https://t.co/wERMFP0Wcp
Lightweight Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a total flunky for Chuck Schumer and someone who would come to my office “b… https://t.co/L8fAyMgZ8M
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Using a regression analysis to test the relationship between Trump's trade-related tweets and various assets, while controlling for the dollar and the Economic Policy Uncertainty index, they found that soybeans was the only one significantly impacted by tweets.
"The result is consistent with our commodity team’s view that trade tensions should have a minor impact on commodity markets with the sole exception of soybeans, where it is not possible to completely reroute supplies should China levy tariffs on US soybeans," Goldman's James Weldon said in a note on Thursday. As the New York Times reported, China's farms are generally too underdeveloped to replace a shortfall in imports.
All of President Trump's Twitter attacks on Amazon
All of President Trump's Twitter attacks on Amazon
The Amazon Washington Post has gone crazy against me ever since they lost the Internet Tax Case in the U.S. Supreme… https://t.co/OUL6J4UdEo
I have stated my concerns with Amazon long before the Election. Unlike others, they pay little or no taxes to state… https://t.co/ONyVYY2yMe
While we are on the subject, it is reported that the U.S. Post Office will lose $1.50 on average for each package i… https://t.co/KJjzUtRvI3
...does not include the Fake Washington Post, which is used as a “lobbyist” and should so REGISTER. If the P.O. “i… https://t.co/D6wEE6pxVk
Only fools, or worse, are saying that our money losing Post Office makes money with Amazon. THEY LOSE A FORTUNE, an… https://t.co/LeaMuxR6Hb
I am right about Amazon costing the United States Post Office massive amounts of money for being their Delivery Boy… https://t.co/P7yIvCuIo1
The Fake News Washington Post, Amazon’s “chief lobbyist,” has another (of many) phony headlines, “Trump Defiant As… https://t.co/ZhJDeha7Tu
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China is the world's largest importer of soybeans. Last year, it imported $12.4 billion worth of the legume from the US to feed its pigs, The Wall Street Journal reported. American soybeans help China lower the price of pork, a staple protein for households, and aid in the production of cooking oil.
Even though China can turn to Brazil, another major producer and exporter of soybeans, it may still feel the pangs of fewer American soybeans.
That's why soybean traders respond when Trump tweets about trade policy.
"This is not to say that markets are not pricing trade risk or that trade tensions are not a concern," Weldon said. They're just not relying on Twitter to price the risk, he concluded.