Is Trump about to go down in flames? Here’s how to tell


Whether you love President Donald Trump or hate him, there's a media outlet ready to fan your flames, 24 hours a day.

Think our president hung the moon? Fox will happily preach to your choir. Convinced Trump is the devil incarnate? CNN's down like James Brown.

But what if you're simply a concerned citizen who wants to know the truth?

If that's you, don't waste your time watching the news. Just take a few seconds and see what's happening to the stock market.

As I write this, former FBI Director James Comey just completed his much-anticipated congressional testimony and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 53 points. That tells me that despite what Comey said or didn't say, Trump is not in trouble. I don't have to listen to hours of breathless, and often biased, reporting from the mainstream media.

8 PHOTOS
One phrase from Comey's testimony sets Twitter ablaze
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One phrase from Comey's testimony sets Twitter ablaze
Comey: "I've seen his tweet about tapes. Lordy, I hope there are tapes."
if no one starts a tape label called Lordy I Hope There Are Tapes i'm leaving #noiselife
"lordy I hope there are tapes" is the old white guy equivalent of "i wish a bitch would"
Comey's tired eyes + folksy "lordy" + "big and strong" (per Dianne)
Aaaaaand we have our biopic title. LORDY I HOPE THERE ARE TAPES, Sofia Coppola directing a Sorkin script for HBO w/… https://t.co/9aSOaN5mdv
"Lordy, I hope there are tapes" is something I've probably actually said.
SENATE: Did the President lie to you? COMEY: Yes S: Was there obstruction? C: Can't comment S: Do you believe in life after love? C: Yes
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Watch the smart money, not the news

When it comes to the fate of our current president, or any number of other potentially world-changing actors or events, stocks are your canary in the coal mine.

The stock market is made up of thousands of very smart people from all over the world, many wagering very large sums of money. While it is not a perfect predictor — nothing can claim that title — it reflects the collective best guess of these highly informed individuals, who are highly motivated by the high stakes. Whatever information there is, they've got it.

What the market is telling you now

If you're a Trump fan, you may be telling yourself that since the market reacted favorably to Comey's testimony, that's proof that our president is a great guy. If you're a Trump hater, you're probably convinced that the market is irrelevant and our president is surely about to go down in flames.

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Well, here's the simple truth: The stock market doesn't give a rodent's rear end who's right, who's wrong or who's in the White House.

The market only cares about one thing: money.

Trump's very clear agenda is to roll back regulations, including those designed to protect consumers, and to slash corporate income taxes. Both of these policy goals translate into more corporate profits, which show up as higher stock prices.

If Trump was in danger of impeachment and his agenda was likewise endangered, stocks would go down. Since they're going up, the smart money is saying loud and clear that his agenda is intact.

11 PHOTOS
President Donald Trump meeting other world leaders
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President Donald Trump meeting other world leaders
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (L) is greeted by greets U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., February 13, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque - TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump pose for a photograph before attending dinner at Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., February 11, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
U.S. President Donald Trump looks down at a bust of former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill while meeting with British Prime Minister Theresa May at the White House in Washington, U.S., January 27, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint news conference with U.S. President Donald Trump (R) at the White House in Washington, U.S., February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, left, speaks with U.S. President Donald Trump, during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Friday, March 17, 2017. Merkel, who is running for a fourth term in Germanys election in September, plans to explain her view of the mutual advantages of free trade during her talks with Trump on Friday, according to German officials. Photographers: Pat Benic/Pool via Bloomberg
King Abdullah II of Jordan, left, looks towards U.S. President Donald Trump after shaking hands during a news conference in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, April 5, 2017. The talks with the Jordanian monarch are expected to focus on other regional issues, including Syria and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
U.S. President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, Egypt's president, during a meeting inside the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Monday, April 3, 2017. Trump�said Monday his buildup of the U.S. military would help El-Sisi�fight terrorism as the two met at the White House for their first summit of the Trump presidency. Photographer: Olivier Douliery/Pool via Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi in the Oval Office in the White House on March 20, 2017, in Washington, DC. / AFP PHOTO / MOLLY RILEY (Photo credit should read MOLLY RILEY/AFP/Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) walk together at the Mar-a-Lago estate in West Palm Beach, Florida, April 7, 2017. President Donald Trump entered a second day of talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday hoping to strike deals on trade and jobs after an overnight show of strength in Syria. / AFP PHOTO / JIM WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
U.S. President Donald Trump meets Prime Minister Lokke Rasmussen of Denmark outside the West Wing of the White House March 30, 2017 in Washington, DC. President Trump is hosting Prime Minister Rasmussen with an Oval Office meeting. (Photo by Cheriss May/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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See for yourself

Since our current president — along with his friends and foes in the media — is fond of creating nearly continuous drama, you'll have plenty of opportunities to try using this prediction machine yourself.

When the next drama unfolds, instead of reinforcing your prejudices with a trip to CNN or Fox, check the market first. It might just tell you everything you need to know.

About me

I founded Money Talks News in 1991. I'm a CPA, and have also earned licenses in stocks, commodities, options principal, mutual funds, life insurance, securities supervisor and real estate.

What do you think of Trump's prospects — or the fate of the overall economy? Sound off by commenting below or on our Facebook page.

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Markets

NASDAQ 6,624.00 18.20 0.28%
S&P 500 2,557.64 4.47 0.18%
DJIA 22,956.96 85.24 0.37%
NIKKEI 225 21,336.12 80.56 0.38%
HANG SENG 28,697.49 4.69 0.02%
DAX 13,007.95 4.25 0.03%
USD (per EUR) 1.18 0.00 -0.30%
USD (per CHF) 0.98 0.00 0.18%
JPY (per USD) 112.16 -0.03 -0.03%
GBP (per USD) 1.33 0.00 0.03%

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