Starbucks just signaled a terrifying sign for the economy

Starbucks' same-store sales trends are magnifying Wall Street's concerns about a restaurant recession.

The coffee chain is a bellwether for the restaurant industry, boasting more than six years of positive quarterly same-store sales at or above 5%.

But recently, growth has been stagnating.

Sales at stores open at least a year grew 4% in the fourth quarter, the company reported Thursday. Analysts had expected 4.9% growth.

That's still pretty strong growth, but it's not strong enough to quell fears about the restaurant industry as a whole, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Brett Levy.

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Starbucks locations around the world
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Starbucks locations around the world
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In a note on Starbucks titled, "This restaurant landscape continues to give us jitters," Levy said it's concerning that even Starbucks has been unable to fend off challenging pressures facing the restaurant industry.

"The sales slowdowns have even reached Starbucks, a company that: 1) continues to execute on the product front (beverage/food), 2) is leading the retail charge in the digital revolution, and 3) successfully expanding its global foot print," Levy wrote. "We believe these factors speak to the ongoing pressures across the restaurant landscape."

Starbucks baristaJacqui FrankHe said analysts "cannot look past" Starbucks' near-term sales slowdown or lowered earnings-per-share outlook.

"We view Starbucks as a best-in-class restaurant company, but we are cautious on the recent sales and earnings trends," he wrote.

Analysts have been warning about a potential restaurant recession for months.

In a research note published in July, Stifel analysts argued that US restaurants were showing signs of heading toward a sector-wide recession.

More recently, Moody's slashed its operating-profit growth forecast for the industry and revised its outlook to stable from positive.

"Consumers are wrestling with higher nondiscretionary spending needs, while restaurant companies face higher operating costs, predominantly labor and challenged traffic trends," Moody's analyst Bill Fahy wrote in a note.

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25 chain restaurants Americans hate
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25 chain restaurants Americans hate

Fricker's 

Excessive Noise Levels: 22%
Poor Service: 22%
Problematic Food Prep: 12%
Dirty Environment: 22%

Photo credit: Facebook.com
 

Dave & Buster's 

Excessive Noise Levels: 32%
Poor Service: 23%
Problematic Food Prep: 13%
Dirty Environment: 14%

Photo credit: Reuters

Taco Mac

Excessive Noise Levels: 24%
Poor Service: 28%
Problematic Food Prep: 13%
Dirty Environment: 9%

Photo credit: Facebook.com
 

Native Grill & Wings

Excessive Noise Levels: 23%
Poor Service: 19%
Problematic Food Prep: 13%
Dirty Environment: 15%

Photo credit: Facebook.com  

Quaker Steak & Lube

Excessive Noise Levels: 25%
Poor Service: 18%
Problematic Food Prep: 11%
Dirty Environment: 12%

Photo credit: Getty

Buffalo Wild Wings 

Excessive Noise Levels: 30%
Poor Service: 17%
Problematic Food Prep: 12%
Dirty Environment: 10%

Photo credit: Getty

The Green Turtle Sports Bar & Grille

Excessive Noise Levels: 25%
Poor Service: 20%
Problematic Food Prep: 12%
Dirty Environment: 10%

Photo credit: Facebook.com 

Huddle House

Excessive Noise Levels: 15%
Poor Service: 20%
Problematic Food Prep: 13%
Dirty Environment: 23%

Photo credit: Reuters 

P.J. Whelihan's Pub and Restaurant 

Excessive Noise Levels: 31%
Poor Service: 13%
Problematic Food Prep: 8%
Dirty Environment: 10%

Photo credit: Facebook.com 

Joe's Crab Shack 

Excessive Noise Levels: 24%
Poor Service: 18%
Problematic Food Prep: 11%
Dirty Environment: 11%

Photo credit: Getty

Hurricane Grill & Wings

Excessive Noise Levels: 21%
Poor Service: 20%
Problematic Food Prep: 11%
Dirty Environment: 10%

Photo credit: Facebook.com 

Wild Wing Cafe

Excessive Noise Levels: 24%
Poor Service: 20%
Problematic Food Prep: 10%
Dirty Environment: 11%

Photo credit: Facebook.com 

Hard Rock Cafe 

Excessive Noise Levels: 24%
Poor Service: 20%
Problematic Food Prep: 11%
Dirty Environment: 7%

Photo credit: Reuters

Rainforest Cafe

Excessive Noise Levels: NA
Poor Service: NA
Problematic Food Prep: NA
Dirty Environment: NA

Photo credit: Getty

Iron Skillet 

Excessive Noise Levels: 11%
Poor Service: 19%
Problematic Food Prep: 16%
Dirty Environment: 16%

Photo credit: Getty

Texas Roadhouse

Excessive Noise Levels: 38%
Poor Service: 10%
Problematic Food Prep: 7%
Dirty Environment: 10%

Photo credit: Getty

Buffalo Wings & Rings

Excessive Noise Levels: 31%
Poor Service: 31%
Problematic Food Prep: 10%
Dirty Environment: 9%

Photo credit: Facebook.com 

Dick's Last Resort 

Excessive Noise Levels: 18%
Poor Service: 20%
Problematic Food Prep: 9%
Dirty Environment: 16%

Photo credit: Getty

Logan's Roadhouse

Excessive Noise Levels: 24%
Poor Service: 15%
Problematic Food Prep: 12%
Dirty Environment: 14%

Photo credit: Facebook.com

House Of Blues 

Excessive Noise Levels: 19%
Poor Service: 19%
Problematic Food Prep: 14%
Dirty Environment: 10%

Photo credit: Getty

Bar Louie 

Excessive Noise Levels: 25%
Poor Service: 16%
Problematic Food Prep: 10%
Dirty Environment: 8%

Photo credit: Getty

Red Robin Gourmet Burger and Brews 

Excessive Noise Levels: 26%
Poor Service: 16%
Problematic Food Prep: 10%
Dirty Environment: 9%

Photo credit: Reuters 

Waffle House 

Excessive Noise Levels: 17%
Poor Service: 12%
Problematic Food Prep: 9%
Dirty Environment: 22%

Photo credit: Getty

Flanigan's Seafood Bar and Grill

Excessive Noise Levels: 27%
Poor Service: 11%
Problematic Food Prep: 12%
Dirty Environment: 11%

Photo credit: Facebook.com 

Duffy's Sports Grill

Excessive Noise Levels: 33%
Poor Service: 14%
Problematic Food Prep: 10%
Dirty Environment: 5%

Photo credit: Facebook.com 

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