Total Blowout on Labor Department Payrolls Report
The U.S. Department of Labor released the November Employment Situation report Friday morning. This report comes on the heels of a positive ISM manufacturing report and positive ADP and TrimTabs reports. Employers across the United States increased hiring in November and kept the economy on track, ultimately recording the strongest year of job creation in 15 years. The long and short of the matter was that, while unemployment remained static, the payrolls growth was a total blowout against expectations, and one has to wonder if this could start to alter the Federal Reserve's rate hike timeline in 2015.
Nonfarm payrolls were reported as a massively higher 321,000, against a Bloomberg consensus estimate of 230,000. The previous reading for October was revised to 243,000 from 214,000 — an additional 29,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate held consistent at 5.8%, in line with the Bloomberg consensus estimate, and the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 9.1 million. The largest job growth was seen in professional and business services, retail trade, health care and manufacturing. Investors and market observers should notice that the unemployment rate, same as the previous month's 5.8%, is the lowest unemployment rate since July of 2008.
The reading for private sector payrolls came in at 314,000, above the consensus estimate of 225,000, and the previous reading was revised to 236,000 from 209,000 — another 25,000 higher. The average workweek rose by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours.
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ADP and TrimTabs tried to pinpoint their projections ahead of the Labor Department to offer additional insight into the jobs market. It turns out that ADP and TrimTabs were both positive, but the two offered very different views ahead of the Labor Department's key report.
ADP signaled that private sector employment rose by some 208,000 jobs in November from October in its latest ADP National Employment Report. Bloomberg had a consensus estimate of 225,000 for November. October's report was revised to 233,000 from 230,000.
TrimTabs Investment Research projected that the U.S. economy added 306,000 jobs in November, down marginally from the 314,000 jobs added in October. TrimTabs' employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 141 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.
The ISM Manufacturing Report on Business showed that the Employment Index grew for the 17th consecutive month, registering 54.9% in November, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point below the October reading of 55.5%.
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