TrimTabs and Gallup Signal Strong Jobs Growth in August
Wednesday marked a 48-hour countdown to the Friday unemployment and payrolls report from the U.S. Labor Department. While many investors try to use ADP Payrolls as a benchmark for the payrolls, we did get to see two reports ahead of that: TrimTabs payrolls and Gallup Job Creation.
TrimTabs has given its first look at the employment situation and payrolls for the month of August. This aims to trump ADP and to act as a barometer for the nonfarm and private sector payrolls report ahead of time. The August TrimTabs report projected that the U.S. economy added 231,000 jobs during the month. TrimTabs also said that employment growth has now been above 200,000 jobs in five of the past six months.
Another lesser followed report is the Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index. This report was also released for August at a level of 28, the same as July but also tying a six-year high. The reading was only 22 in August of 2013. This reading is hardly viewed by the public.
What investors and economists may use as a benchmark for the TrimTabs projection of 231,000 jobs in August is that this was down from 271,000 jobs in July.
In the TrimTabs note, it was explained that the TrimTabs Macroeconomic Index recently hit a fresh record high. It was also shown that real wage and salary growth remains brisk and that unemployment claims data is positive.
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TrimTabs also notes each month that its employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 139 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.
As far as what to expect from the U.S. Department of Labor Friday (Bloomberg Consensus Data):
- Nonfarm Payrolls rose 209,000 in July and are projected to be up by 230,000 in August.
- Private Sector Payrolls rose by 198,000 in July and are expected to rise by 220,000 in August.
- The unemployment rate is expected to drop back down to 6.1% in August from 6.2% in July.
Filed under: Economy