June Durable Goods Likely Saved Second-Quarter GDP

robotsFriday's report on durable goods was one we were paying close attention to. After all, this is the last major broad production and consumption number ahead of the first look at second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). The report was strong enough that it may have kept fears at bay that economists would start lowering their GDP targets.

Durable goods rose by 0.7% in the month of June for the headline report. Bloomberg had the consensus report as a gain of 0.5%. May was down 0.9% and April was up 0.8%.

The ex-transportation durable goods report also beat estimates at 0.8%, versus the 0.7% consensus estimate from Bloomberg. This was effectively flat in May and up by 0.4% in April.

A key measurement in this Commerce Department report is the business spending climate report, via the orders for nondefense capital goods, ex-aircraft. This measurement often removes the wild parts of the durable goods report, and it aims to show the true underlying broad base of business spending, it rose by 1.4% in June, after being negative in May and April.

The fear going into this durable goods report was that it would hurt second-quarter GDP estimates. That does not appear to be the case, and that first-quarter GDP reading of -2.9% now looks as though it will have been a one-time blip in the recovery that is nearing five years old.

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Filed under: Economy
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