Why J.M. Smucker Slipped This Morning

While Fools should generally take the opinion of Wall Street with a grain of salt, it's not a bad idea to take a look at particularly stock-shaking analyst upgrades and downgrades -- just in case their reasoning behind the call makes sense.

What: Shares of J.M. Smucker slipped 1% this morning after Wells Fargo downgraded the food company from market perform to underperform.

So what: Along with the downgrade, analyst John Baumgartner lowered his price target to $92-$94 (from $102-$104), representing about 11% worth of downside to yesterday's close. While contrarians might be attracted to Smucker's recent share-price weakness, Baumgartner believes there's room to fall given slowing single-serve coffee growth and a weak overall consumer environment.

Now what: According to Wells, Smucker's risk/reward tradeoff is particularly unappetizing at the moment. "We maintain that SJM is among those most at risk within a challenging consumer environment and note that: 1) coffee growth is slowing sharply within single-serve and 2) cost deflation benefits are poised to moderate while recent benefits are weakened by lower prices at retail," noted Wells. When you couple those headwinds with Smucker's seemingly steep forward P/E of 17, it's tough to disagree with the downgrade.

Our top pick for 2014
The market stormed out to huge gains across 2013, leaving investors on the sidelines burned. However, opportunistic investors can still find huge winners. The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has just hand-picked one such opportunity in our new report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2014." To find out which stock it is and read our in-depth report, simply click here. It's free!

The article Why J.M. Smucker Slipped This Morning originally appeared on Fool.com.

Fool contributor Brian Pacampara has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Copyright © 1995 - 2013 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Read Full Story