David Rubenstein: The next president will likely face a recession in their first term

Rubenstein: Next President Likely to Face Recession

Private-equity billionaire David Rubenstein, who co-founded Carlyle Group, said Wednesday that the next US president will probably see "something close to a recession or something that might be close to very low growth."

It's too early to predict what Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton would do as president, he said. What is certain is that they'll face an economic slowdown, he told Bloomberg TV.

He said:

I think there is no doubt that whoever is president we are likely to have a low growth period of time. We've been growing at relatively modest rates, and we are due for more of an economic slowdown than we've probably had for the last couple of years.

Our last recession ended in June of 2009. Typically you have seven years between recessions. It could go eight years, maybe eight and a half, but it doesn't usually go ten or 11 years. Probably in the first term of the next president we will probably have something close to a recession or something that might be close to very low growth.

It's unlikely that the new president will be able to make much of an impact, Rubenstein said, citing the impending interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year and probably next year.

"That'll be independent of whoever the US president is," he said.

RELATED: 5 reasons the US economy is beating the rest of the world:

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5 reasons the US economy is beating the rest of the world
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David Rubenstein: The next president will likely face a recession in their first term

1. A ROARING STOCK MARKET

The Fed's easy-money policies ignited a world-beating U.S. stock market rally. Over the past five years, U.S. stocks have easily outpaced shares in Europe, Japan and Hong Kong. That was one of Bernanke's goals in lowering rates. He figured that miserly fixed-income rates would nudge investors into stocks in search of higher returns. Higher stock prices would then make Americans feel more confident and more willing to spend - the so-called wealth effect.

Most economists agree it's worked.

(Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)
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