The most respected poll in Iowa just gave Donald Trump some great news

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Who Will Win Iowa Caucus? Depends on Who Shows Up

The most historically accurate poll in Iowa just released its final poll of the state's caucuses -- and it brought some good news for Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump.

On Saturday evening, The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics survey found Trump leading Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) 28 percent to 23 percent among likely GOP caucus-goers.

SEE ALSO: Donald Trump just called Ted Cruz 'an anchor baby in Canada

The poll, conducted by veteran pollster J. Ann Selzer, also found Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) with 15 percent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 10 percent.

"Trump is leading with both the inner core of the caucus universe and the fringe -- that's what any candidate would want," Selzer said.

See photos from Donald Trump's Iowa rally on Thursday:

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Donald Trump's Iowa Rally at the same time as GOP debate
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The most respected poll in Iowa just gave Donald Trump some great news
Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally raising funds for US military veterans at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. US Republicans scrambling to win the first contest in the presidential nomination race were gearing for battle at high-profile debate in Iowa, but frontrunner Donald Trump is upending the campaign by defiantly refusing to attend. Trump's gamble has left the presidential race in uncharted waters just days before Iowans vote on February 1, insisting he will not back down in his feud with debate host Fox News.Instead, the billionaire has doubled down, hosting a rogue, rival event for US military veterans at the same time that his own party is showcasing its candidates for president to all-important Iowa voters. / AFP / William EDWARDS (Photo credit should read WILLIAM EDWARDS/AFP/Getty Images)
Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, waves during a campaign event in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., on Thursday, Jan. 28, 2016. Trump, according to a flurry of early-state and national polls, is the overwhelming favorite of self-identified moderate and liberal Republican voters. Among more conservative voters, he often trails his chief rival for the nomination, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz. Photographer: T.J. Kirkpatrick/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a campaign event in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., on Thursday, Jan. 28, 2016. Trump, according to a flurry of early-state and national polls, is the overwhelming favorite of self-identified moderate and liberal Republican voters. Among more conservative voters, he often trails his chief rival for the nomination, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz. Photographer: T.J. Kirkpatrick/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Protesters, left, are confronted by supporters during a campaign event for Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., on Thursday, Jan. 28, 2016. Trump, according to a flurry of early-state and national polls, is the overwhelming favorite of self-identified moderate and liberal Republican voters. Among more conservative voters, he often trails his chief rival for the nomination, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz. Photographer: T.J. Kirkpatrick/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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Earlier this month, Selzer's poll found Cruz with a three-point lead in Iowa, while the majority of other polls have found Trump ahead there. Iowa will be the first state to weigh in on the presidential primary next Monday and both Trump and Cruz have aggressively competed to win its caucus.

When she announced the results Saturday, Selzer stressed that the electorate was still somewhat "fluid." According to The Register, there could be a "cliffhanger" on Monday night as 45 percent of the likely voters said they could be persuaded to change their minds.

No other Republican candidate was close to breaking into double digits in the poll.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) placed fifth with 5 percent. He was followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's (R) 3 percent. Five other GOP contenders tied at 2 percent: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pennsylvania).

See photos from the most recent GOP debate:

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GOP Debate
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The most respected poll in Iowa just gave Donald Trump some great news
Republican Presidential candidates (L-R) Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich arrive for the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (L) speaks as Texas Senator Ted Cruz looks on during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidates participate in the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate Florida Senator Marco Rubio (L) looks on as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush gestures during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate Florida Senator Marco Rubio (R) looks on Texas Senator Ted Cruz speaks during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential Senator Rand Paul speaks during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate Florida Senator Marco Rubio (R) speaks as Texas Senator Ted Cruz looks on during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson looks on during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate Senator Rand Paul speaks during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie gestures during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate Texas Senator Ted Cruz gestures during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie gestures during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (L) looks on as Ohio Gov. John Kasich gestures during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidate former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (L) speaks as Ohio Gov. John Kasich looks on during the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Republican Presidential candidates (L-R) Senator Rand Paul, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich arrive for the Republican Presidential debate sponsored by Fox News at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa on January 28, 2016. / AFP / AFP PHOTO / Jim WATSON (Photo credit should read JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
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On the Democratic side of the race, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton led her chief rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont), 45 percent to 43 percent.

Selzer's poll is widely respected in the political world. In a profile this week, the statistical news website FiveThirtyEight called Selzer "the best pollster in politics." The Register noted that her poll is known as the "gold standard" due to its historical accuracy. A Politico profile last December further described her as "legendary."

Here's Politico's account of Selzer's final polls before recent elections:

The recent track record of her firm, Selzer & Company, is impressive: Selzer, who has polled for the Des Moines Register for decades, was the only pollster to nail the order of Democratic candidates in 2004. Her final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucusgoers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory. Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's surge in the waning days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.

And just last year, the final Register poll in the Iowa Senate race showed Republican Joni Ernst with a 7-point lead, contrary to other polls that showed a much closer race with Democrat Bruce Braley. Braley's campaign decried the poll, calling it an "outlier." But Ernst won by 9 points.

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