Donald Trump's going to win the Republican nomination, say internet bookies

The Trump-Cruz Smackdown
The Trump-Cruz Smackdown

Not one person in America has yet voted for Donald Trump, but brace yourself: people are betting good money that he's going to sweep the Republican party nomination.

Users of PredictIt, who bet real money on their expectations of political outcomes, say Trump has a 44% chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination. That's 14 percentage points higher than the candidate in second place on the PredictIt market, Sen. Marco Rubio, who users say has a 30% chance.

As The Donald would say, that's yooge.

As Trump's lead in the polls has risen, so have his chances in the predictive markets.

Until late last year, PredictIt users bet former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would win the Republican primary, likely based on his massive fundraising lead and familiarity with voters.

See also: Trump is a loser, say prediction markets

But as Bush has struggled on the political stage, so too have his chances in predictive markets faded. He now is in fourth place, with PredicIt users saying he has an 11% chance of being the GOP nominee.

While PredictIt does not purport to be a scientifically accurate assessment of what will happen in the presidential race, studies have shown it generates more accurate results to poll voters on who they believe will actually win an election — rather than who they want to win.

"Polls of voter expectations consistently yield more accurate forecasts than polls of voter intentions," reads the conclusion of a 2013 study by economists Justin Wolfers and David Rothschild.

On the Democratic side, PredictIt users say former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning her party's presidential nod.

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