Multi-day threat of tornadoes, damaging winds across the South early this week
A multi-day threat of severe storms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will target portions of the South starting Monday. This comes on the heels of a classic November storm that caused damaging severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across the Midwest last week.
In addition, the thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfall which will raise the risk of flash flooding from the southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley. The link below has more on that threat.
The upcoming jet stream pattern is expected to be similar to last week's severe weather setup, although the focus this time is farther south, as a powerful southward dip in the jet stream intensifies over the Southwest, then pushes east into the Plains.
Ahead of this bullish jet-stream dip, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be transported into the Plains, as surface low pressure develops east of the southern Rockies.
As the jet stream digs south and amplifies, strong wind fields will work into an environment characterized by warm, unstable air in the low levels of the atmosphere and colder air working in from the northwest, aloft. The setup appears highly favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms.
Given the proximity of this system to the Gulf of Mexico, a sizable area of warm and humid (unstable) air should coincide with impressive wind shear to cause a more widespread area of severe thunderstorms than the Midwest saw this last Wednesday.
Severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel has raised the TOR:CON to 5 in parts of west Texas and southwest Oklahoma Monday. This means there is a 50 percent chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in that area. Below are more forecast details for this multi-day severe weather threat.
Our Latest Severe Threat Forecast
Monday:Threat Areas: With low pressure developing over the High Plains, severe thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected to develop late in the day and evening across western to north-central Texas, western/central Oklahoma, western Kansas and southwest Nebraska with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible.
Cities: Abilene, Texas | Oklahoma City | Wichita Falls, Texas
Monday night:Threat Areas: With a moist, southeast flow maintaining or even increasing instability overnight and strengthening low-level winds, severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and tornadoes remain possible through the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. These storms should merge into an intense squall line, which will track across north, central and eastern Texas, Oklahoma, and possibly the ArkLaTex region. A broad area of thunderstorms with heavy rain will flare up well to the east, from the Ozarks to the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley.
Cities: Austin | Oklahoma City | Dallas - Fort Worth
Threat Areas: Severe thunderstorms will continue from eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma to Arkansas, Louisiana and eventually Mississippi. Although the most widespread threat will be damaging winds with a persistent squall line, tornadoes remain possible, especially with any storms that form well ahead of an advancing cold front. Overnight, the risk of severe thunderstorms may spread as far east as southwest Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
Cities: Houston | Jackson, Mississippi | Little Rock |Shreveport, Louisiana
Wednesday:Threat Areas: Any lingering severe threat will depend on how much instability remains with the system as it moves northeast. Right now, it appears that a few severe storms could fire from southeastern Mississippi into southern Alabama, the Florida panhandle and southwest Georgia. We cannot rule some severe storms in northern parts of Alabama and Georgia as well.
Cities: Albany, Georgia | Mobile, Alabama | Pensacola, Florida
For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
The computer models have come into better agreement with the forecast of this storm system, including both the severe weather threat and flood potential. The trend favors a slightly more progressive system, meaning the upper level low will move steadily eastward, instead of stalling over the Plains.
Assuming this trend continues, the severe weather threat should move steadily east across the Gulf Coast states into Tuesday, waning on Wednesday as the system moves across the Southeast with decreasing instability.
Needless to say, this outlook is subject to change in the days ahead as new forecast data is analyzed.
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks, like what occurred this last Wednesday, are not uncommon in November. If anything, this upcoming event targets an area that is climatologically favored for the threat of severe weather in November, particularly the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
In addition to the thunderstorm threat, due to the strong low-level wind fields expected with this system, damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts may be possible across parts of the Plains, Midwest Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather event.
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