El Nino to shape November weather in US: East to warm as chill blasts West

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By ACCUWEATHER

Warmth will build over the Eastern United States, while chilly air and episodes of mountain snow will begin to frequent the West during the first half of November and perhaps much of the month, due in a large part to El Niño.

While the pattern will feature some fleeting bursts of chilly air from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and the Northeast, the number of calendar days (days and nights) with above-normal temperatures will exceed the number of calendar days with below-average temperatures.


It is possible that any chilly episodes in the Midwest and Northeast will fall short of the outbreak of Oct. 16-19, when daytime temperatures were held to the 30s and 40s F in some locations. If not, then any cold outbreak with lake-effect snow will be short-lived.

Normal temperatures trend downward by approximately a degree every two to three days during November. With this in mind, temperature departures on some calendar days will range from 10 to 20 degrees above normal in portions of the East during the first half of the month.

In the West, temperatures on a number of calendar days will range from 5 to 10 degrees below normal during the first two weeks of November.

AccuWeather meteorologists look at a number of factors in determining the forecast for a month or season in advance, including prior years where the pattern was similar. The vast majority of Novembers during a strong El Niño were mild in the East and chilly in the West.

According to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Ben Noll, "The first half of November looks a great deal like November of 1982."

That month brought warmth to the East and chill to the West.

"An El Niño was in progress during November of 1982 and resulted in a mean temperature average of 1-3 degrees above normal for the month in the eastern third of the nation," Noll said. "In the West, a mean temperature average of 1-3 degrees below normal occurred."

An exception to this typical pattern across the U.S. occurred in November of 1997 when the opposite occurred, and there was notably more chill in the Southern states and Plains.

"Based on what we are seeing now, this November looks a lot less like 1997," Noll said.

The pattern will bring a few episodes of rain to the Plains, Midwest, Northeast and South. Any snowfall will be brief and generally limited to parts of the northern Plains, Upper Great Lakes and the highest elevations of the central Appalachians and northern New England.

In the West, snow levels will lower a bit faster than average for early November. This could catch some motorists by surprise traversing the higher passes along Interstate 70, I-80 and I-90 to name a few.


During the second half of the month, temperatures may tend to even out a bit, when compared to the first half of the month with an active storm track in the Deep South, according to Noll.

"The storm track could lead to severe weather outbreaks, while the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic basin in general will have to be watched for tropical development," Noll said.

See the effects of El Niño:

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El Nino to shape November weather in US: East to warm as chill blasts West
NOAA has released an update to its El Niño advisory. This image shows the satellite sea surface temperature departure for the month of October 2015, where orange-red colors are above normal temperatures and are indicative of El Niño. This event is forecast to continue through the winter, likely ranking as one of the top 3 strongest events since 1950, before fading in late spring or early summer. El Niño has already produced significant global impacts, and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months. Seasonal outlooks generally favor below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States. (Photo via NOAA)
MAKASSAR, SOUTH SULAWESI, INDONESIA - SEPTEMBER 21: Two girls are seen walk behind of dried up ricefield at Manggara Bombang village, Maros district on September 21, 2015 in Makassar, Indonesia. Indonesia's national disaster management agency has declared that the majority of the country's 34 provinces are experiencing drought caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon, the worst drought in the past five years. The dry season forces villagers to walk long distances to find clean water. (Photo by Agung Parameswara/Getty Images)
NOAA issued an update to the El Niño analysis on September 10, 2015, in which forecasters from the Climate Predication Center say a strong El Niño is in place and likely to peak in late fall/early winter, and gradually weaken through spring 2016. This image shows the satellite-based average sea surface temperature data from the week of August 31 - September 6, 2015. Blue areas are cooler than the 1981-2010 average; red areas are warmer than that historical base period. The large pool of warmer than average temperatures along the equatorial Pacific is indicative of the El Niño conditions. (Photo via NOAA)
Sea surface temperature anomalies in November 1997 (left) compared to July 2015 (right). (Photo via NOAA)
A couple tries to cool off from the heat caused by El Nino with water overflowing from a defunct but still watery reservoir called the Wawa dam in Montalban in Rizal, east of Manila on February 21, 2010. El Niño was expected to dehydrate the Metro Manila area over in the next two months, according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). Earlier this month the government warned a possible drought caused by the El Nino weather system could slash Philippines rice yields this year. AFP PHOTO / NOEL CELIS (Photo credit should read NOEL CELIS/AFP/Getty Images)
Tons of dead fish are seen on the banks of the Solimoes River due the water's low level, November 25, 2009 near Manaquiri, 120Km from Manaus. The dry season, affected by the weather phenomenon EL Nino, is worse this year. According a study from Brazil's universities USP,UNICAMP,UFRJ and Embrapa, the country could lose some USD 3.6 billion over the next 40 years. AFP PHOTO / ANTONIO SCORZA (Photo credit should read ANTONIO SCORZA/AFP/Getty Images)
Heavy clouds covers Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta on November 29, 2009. The month of November ends the dry season and starts the wet period but the weather bureau anticipates El Nino's dry spell to affect Indonesian weather. AFP PHOTO / Bay ISMOYO (Photo credit should read BAY ISMOYO/AFP/Getty Images)
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