El Nino-spurred warmth to hang on across Midwest, Northeast into November

A Quick Warm Up Is a Bit of a Set Up

By Alex Sosnowski for Accuweather

Warm weather beginning to grip the Midwest and Northeast is expected to last well into November with only brief interruptions of cooler blasts of air. The warm pattern will spurred on by El Niño.

El Niño is the warm phase of routine water temperature fluctuations in the tropical Pacific Ocean and can alter weather patterns around a large part of the globe.

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"The weather pattern in much of the Midwest and Northeast will feature more mild days than cool days from the middle of this week into early November," According to AccuWeather Long Range Meteorologist Ben Noll.

The cold pattern and snow from last weekend had roots in north-central Canada. Strong winds aloft, or the jet stream, lined up with surface winds and allowed the cold air to quickly drain a couple thousand miles to the south.


"We have a real El Niño pattern kicking across much of the nation now," Noll said. "The prevailing jet stream over much of the nation will be from the west or southwest in the upcoming weeks."


A couple of dips of cool air will follow and graze the Great Lakes and the Northeast through early November, but they will be fast-moving and will pale in comparison to the cold blast from this past weekend.

According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "When compared to this past weekend in the Midwest and Northeast, the weather is not likely to get that cold again until November."

The cool air coming into the Upper Midwest on Thursday and exiting New England on Saturday will originate from southern Canada, rather than the North Pole.


During the warmest days from now into early November, temperatures will climb well into the 50s to the lower 60s in the northern tier states and well into the 70s over the Ohio Valley and much of the mid-Atlantic coast.

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During the second half of October, normal temperatures trend downward but generally range from the upper 40s and lower 50s across the northern tier to the middle 60s around the Ohio Valley and much of the mid-Atlantic coast.

See photos of El Niño's effects:

El Nino's effects
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El Nino-spurred warmth to hang on across Midwest, Northeast into November
NOAA has released an update to its El Niño advisory. This image shows the satellite sea surface temperature departure for the month of October 2015, where orange-red colors are above normal temperatures and are indicative of El Niño. This event is forecast to continue through the winter, likely ranking as one of the top 3 strongest events since 1950, before fading in late spring or early summer. El Niño has already produced significant global impacts, and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months. Seasonal outlooks generally favor below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States. (Photo via NOAA)
MAKASSAR, SOUTH SULAWESI, INDONESIA - SEPTEMBER 21: Two girls are seen walk behind of dried up ricefield at Manggara Bombang village, Maros district on September 21, 2015 in Makassar, Indonesia. Indonesia's national disaster management agency has declared that the majority of the country's 34 provinces are experiencing drought caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon, the worst drought in the past five years. The dry season forces villagers to walk long distances to find clean water. (Photo by Agung Parameswara/Getty Images)
NOAA issued an update to the El Niño analysis on September 10, 2015, in which forecasters from the Climate Predication Center say a strong El Niño is in place and likely to peak in late fall/early winter, and gradually weaken through spring 2016. This image shows the satellite-based average sea surface temperature data from the week of August 31 - September 6, 2015. Blue areas are cooler than the 1981-2010 average; red areas are warmer than that historical base period. The large pool of warmer than average temperatures along the equatorial Pacific is indicative of the El Niño conditions. (Photo via NOAA)
Sea surface temperature anomalies in November 1997 (left) compared to July 2015 (right). (Photo via NOAA)
A couple tries to cool off from the heat caused by El Nino with water overflowing from a defunct but still watery reservoir called the Wawa dam in Montalban in Rizal, east of Manila on February 21, 2010. El Niño was expected to dehydrate the Metro Manila area over in the next two months, according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). Earlier this month the government warned a possible drought caused by the El Nino weather system could slash Philippines rice yields this year. AFP PHOTO / NOEL CELIS (Photo credit should read NOEL CELIS/AFP/Getty Images)
Tons of dead fish are seen on the banks of the Solimoes River due the water's low level, November 25, 2009 near Manaquiri, 120Km from Manaus. The dry season, affected by the weather phenomenon EL Nino, is worse this year. According a study from Brazil's universities USP,UNICAMP,UFRJ and Embrapa, the country could lose some USD 3.6 billion over the next 40 years. AFP PHOTO / ANTONIO SCORZA (Photo credit should read ANTONIO SCORZA/AFP/Getty Images)
Heavy clouds covers Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta on November 29, 2009. The month of November ends the dry season and starts the wet period but the weather bureau anticipates El Nino's dry spell to affect Indonesian weather. AFP PHOTO / Bay ISMOYO (Photo credit should read BAY ISMOYO/AFP/Getty Images)

"The overall pattern during the next two weeks is also likely to continue through November with most days bringing above-average temperatures across the northern United States," Noll said.

The same pattern can allow storm systems and fronts to tap into the warm air and subtropical moisture in the Southern states.

The upsurge of severe weather during the fall is often called the "secondary severe weather season," and can be enhanced by El Niño conditions.

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According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, "The surge of warm and moist air ahead of advancing cool fronts could bring significant outbreaks of severe weather, especially over the Plains, Midwest and South during the balance of the autumn."

One such severe weather outbreak may begin on the southern and central Plains Thursday into Friday, following locally heavy storms and flash flooding in the Rockies through midweek, Margusity said.

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El Nino-spurred warmth to hang on across Midwest, Northeast into November
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA, NV - AUGUST 03: The ruins of the Hannig Ice Cream Parlor are shown in the ghost town of St. Thomas on August 3, 2015 in the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Nevada. The town was founded in 1865 by Mormon pioneers at the site where the Muddy River flowed into the Colorado River and at one point had about 500 settlers. The town was abandoned in 1938 after the construction of the Hoover Dam caused the Colorado River to rise. The area was once submerged in 60 feet of water but became entirely exposed to the air as a severe drought in the Western United States over the last 15 years has caused Lake Mead to drop to historic low levels. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
UNITED STATES - JULY 30: A severe thunderstorm passes over the U.S. Capitol on Thursday, July 30, 2015. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 17: People enjoy a hot afternoon at the Astoria Pool in the borough of Queens on August 17, 2015 in New York City. The main pool, the biggest in New York City and administered by the New York City Department of Parks and Recreation, sees over 3,000 people on a typical summer weekday. New York city is in the middle of a heat wave, with temperatures in the high nineties and with a heat factor making it feel over 100 degrees. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

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