Federal Reserve Showing Better Economic Picture at National Level

Map of United StatesThe Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.47 in September from -0.25 in August. Three of the four economic categories made positive contributions to the index in September. Also, there were three of the four categories that posted increases from August. The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of October 21, 2014. At that time, September data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published.

While this is a regional Federal Reserve branch, the report measures national activity.

The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.25 in September from +0.16 in August, its seventh consecutive reading above zero. The economic growth reflected in this suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. The CFNAI Diffusion Index rose to +0.24 in September from +0.18 in August.

There were some 58 of the 85 individual indicators that made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 27 made negative contributions. Some 56 indicators improved from August to September, while 29 indicators deteriorated. Of those indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

Individual component data was follows:

  • Production-related indicators made a contribution of +0.30 to the CFNAI in September, up from -0.20 in August.
  • Employment-related indicators contributed +0.22 to the CFNAI in September, up from +0.04 in August.
  • The contribution of the consumption and housing category to the CFNAI decreased to -0.13 in September from -0.09 in August.

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