We’re almost there

Daniel Desrochers

It’s all about Tuesday.

For nearly two years, candidates in Missouri and Kansas have been campaigning. They’ve bombarded us with ads, begged us for money and asked us for our votes. They’ve attacked, debated and stumped.

But in many races, it isn’t particularly close.

For example, Republican Attorney General Eric Schmitt is likely to become Missouri’s next U.S. Senator, despite around $16 million Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine has loaned to her own campaign. Republican Sen. Jerry Moran is likely to hold on to his seat in the U.S. Senate in Kansas for the next six years. Former Fox 4 anchor Mark Alford is likely to replace Rep. Vicky Hartzler in the U.S. House, where he’ll be a part of the delegation with Rep. Emanuel Cleaver and Rep. Sam Graves, both of whom are expected to coast to victory in their own races.

There are, however, some competitive campaigns left. Most of them are on the Kansas side. Let’s break them down.

Kansas Governor

Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly — who won her first term running against the controversial Republican Kris Kobach in a year when Democrats were motivated by the election of former President Donald Trump — is in a tight campaign against Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt.

Schmidt has been courting a conservative base. Along with talking about the economy, inflation and attempting to tie Kelly to President Joe Biden, he’s stirred up the culture wars. He’s said a top priority will be to pass legislation targeting transgender kids who want to play in the sports leagues that match their gender identity and has campaigned with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who built his reputation on being a conservative firebrand.

Schmidt’s campaign appears to be betting that if they can fire up base Republican voters, Kelly won’t be able to build up a big enough coalition of Democrats and moderates in order to beat him.

Kelly has been doing her best to emphasize her “middle-of-the-road” credentials to attract moderate candidates to her coalition. She’s trotted out a list of former Republican elected officials who have endorsed her over Schmidt, has talked about her efforts to cut the food tax amid rising inflation, touted her attempts to lure businesses to the state and has largely attempted to steer clear of social issues like abortion or transgender rights.

But while Kelly has somewhat sidestepped abortion, it could be key to her chances. Democrats have heavily emphasized abortion rights to help boost turnout in Johnson County, which has voted increasingly Democratic over the past six years. And if there’s high turnout in Democratic-leaning counties, it could help her get enough votes to win reelection.

Kansas 3rd

Everyone loves a rematch, right?

Republican Amanda Adkins is again trying to topple Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids, who is seeking her third term in the U.S. House. Last time, Davids beat Adkins by 10 percentage points. This time, the district lines have changed in a way that ads more conservative-leaning voters and the Republicans are hoping for high turnout in opposition to President Joe Biden’s policies.

Davids has spent the campaign trying to highlight her bipartisan stances over the past four years in Congress. While there has been halting action to affect inflation and high gas prices, Davids talks about her attempts to get party leaders to budge on suspending the federal gas tax (it didn’t work) and her support for initiatives to fund an increase in domestic manufacturing jobs, which she says would help with some of the supply chain issues the country is facing.

In the meantime, she’s talked a lot about abortion rights. She’s used Adkins’ history working for former Gov. Sam Brownback and her endorsement of a Republican policy plan to paint her in favor of a federal ban on the procedure, even though Adkins has said she believes the issue should be left to the states. Davids’ closing argument has centered around preventing extremism — Adkins has campaigned with some of the more conservative members of her party, like Sen. Ted Cruz who was one of the senators who voted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.

It’s a closing argument in line with a speech President Joe Biden made Wednesday, where he said democracy was at stake in the midterm elections.

Kansas Attorney General

Recent polling by Emerson College and Nexstar Media Group has Democrat Chris Mann up just 1.1 percentage points over Republican firebrand Kris Kobach in the race for Kansas attorney general.

Kobach, who was a former Kansas secretary of state, has lost a string of elections. He lost an attempt to become governor in the general election in 2018 and then lost his attempt to become a U.S. senator in the primary in 2020 (partially because groups associated with then-U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell spent millions dragging down Kobach’s campaign).

A win Tuesday would mark a political comeback for Kobach, who has pledged to use the office to sue President Joe Biden’s administration.

Mann, who is a former Wyandotte County prosecutor and Lawrence police officer has promised to de-politicize the office and focus on public safety. He has attacked Kobach’s competence by bringing up a federal judge’s order that Kobach get remedial legal education.

More from Missouri

Mark Alford, a former Fox 4 anchor, is the front-runner to represent Missouri’s 4th Congressional District in the U.S. Capitol next year. He had a polarizing effect at his television station over the 23 years he spent in the building, with some former staffers calling him a bully. Alford said he chose to leave his career in journalism because he felt he was being assigned stories that were “less objective.”

Here are headlines from across the state:

And across Kansas

Sen. Jerry Moran, who is poised to win his third term in the U.S. Senate, is an under-the-radar lawmaker. He’s carrying that low-key approach into his reelection campaign, keeping former President Donald Trump at an arms distance in the process. In an interview with the Star’s editorial board, Moran said he would be more inclined to support former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo than Trump in 2024.

The latest from Kansas City

In Kansas City …

Have a news tip? Send it along to ddesrochers@kcstar.com

Odds and ends

Busch Bucks

Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine has not gotten a ton of help from the national Democratic Party.

While Senate races in Missouri were competitive as recently as 2018, the state has increasingly become a conservative stronghold. All major election analysts have said Republican Attorney General Eric Schmitt is likely to win on Tuesday, which is part of the reason a group closely aligned with U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell poured money into the Republican primary to help Schmitt beat former Gov. Eric Greitens, who was considered more of a liability.

That hasn’t stopped Busch Valentine from spending though. Through Oct. 19, she had loaned her campaign more than $10 million in order to give herself a chance to get her message out across the state. It apparently wasn’t enough. On Oct. 20, she lent herself another $1.5 million. Then on Oct. 24, she lent herself another $2.5 million. Then on Oct. 31, she gave herself another $2 million.

If you’re doing the math, that means she’s loaned herself $16 million over the course of the campaign. That’s enough to buy a home in Bel Air.

Hawley on the culture wars

Sen. Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, appeared on the YouTube show of conservative media personality Jordan Peterson this week, where the two talked for about an hour and a half about the issues they believe are facing the conservative movement across the world.

Early in the interview, Hawley spelled out his belief that culture is driving American politics, something he’s made clear not only in speeches over the past four years, but also in the types of issues he’s pursued as a U.S. Senator.

“I think what’s driving American politics is culture and it’s society,” Hawley said. “And if you look at what the left is doing in our country, in the United States, the left is attacking the foundations of American culture and the foundations of American society.”

While Peterson is Canadian, both he and Hawley are both part of a group attempting to intellectualize the modern conservative movement. Hawley’s vision for the Republican Party in the U.S. is one that leans heavily on a traditionalist approach to Christianity, to the point where his next book is slated to address what he feels is a crisis in American masculinity.

Response to Paul Pelosi attack

Last Friday, a man broke into House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s home when she was not in town and assaulted her husband, Paul Pelosi. Pelosi, 82, was taken to the hospital, where he required surgery to address his injuries and stayed there for nearly a week.

The attack on Pelosi marks another instance of political violence. Other lawmakers have faced similar threats. It came a day after The Star reported that federal prosecutors brought charges against a man who threatened to kill Kansas Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner.

Pelosi has faced repeated threats to her safety. When a mob broke into the Capitol on January 6, 2021, some were heard chanting “Where’s Nancy?” similar to the man who broke into her house last week.

Most of the members of Kansas and Missouri’s Senate delegation offered words of support for Pelosi. Sen. Roy Blunt said on Twitter that he was thinking about the Pelosi family.

“We have been to many events with the Pelosis over the last 2 decades and we’ve had lots of occasions to talk about both of our families and the challenges of being part of a political family,” Blunt wrote.

Both Kansas Sens. Jerry Moran and Roger Marshall also condemned the violence.

The only senator who didn’t chime in was Josh Hawley.

Happy Friday

Distract yourself from politics by reading how Harry Potter fans are probably killing seals. You might want a tequila highball to deal with all these political ads (they’re almost gone!). Here’s Gene Kelly singing and dancing.

Enjoy your weekend.

Daniel Desrochers is the Star’s Washington, D.C. Correspondent
Daniel Desrochers is the Star’s Washington, D.C. Correspondent

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