Against high-pressure Iowa State defense, a veteran PG is pivotal: KU opponent breakdown

The Kansas men’s basketball team finishes its two-game home stand on Saturday against Big 12 conference foe Iowa State.

The two teams last met in February, with the Jayhawks winning 70-61 over the Cyclones in Ames. KU has won the previous six games.

Iowa State dominated Texas Tech on Tuesday with an 84-50 victory in Ames. The key to the Cyclones this season has been their defense. Iowa State has forced 25 or more turnovers in a game three times this season. The Cyclones are one of eight schools that have done that nationwide — and the only power conference program to do it.

Iowa State has a high-pressure defense that causes the turnovers, plus a sharpshooting guard that the Jayhawks will have to run off the arc.

Below is a scouting report and prediction for the game.

Tuesday’s game: No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 14 Iowa State

When/where: 3:00 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse

TV/Streaming: ESPN+

Opponent’s record: 13-2, 4-0 Big 12

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 16

Betting line: Kansas minus-8

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Iowa State team Strengths

• Wreaking havoc: Iowa State does an excellent job of forcing turnovers. The team ranks third in opponent turnovers per game (19.9). The Cyclones are also fifth in steals per game (10.3)

• Highly experienced: Iowa State is an older team. The Cyclones have an average of 3.27 years of D-1 experience on the roster, ranking sixth in the nation.

• Good three-point defense: The Cyclones are good at defending three-pointers. Opposing teams shoot 30.1% from three, ranking 39th in the nation.

Iowa State team Weaknesses

• Careless with the ball: Iowa State struggles to take care of the ball. The Cyclones rank 278th in steal percentage (10.4). In addition, they average 12.9 turnovers per game, ranking 173rd.

• No Freebies: The Cyclones don’t make the most of their free-throw opportunities. They rank 304th in free throw percentage (66.4).

• No trust in the bench: Iowa State coach T. J. Otzelberger doesn’t play his bench heavy minutes. The Cyclones rank 243rd in bench minutes percentage (28.8)

PLAYER TO WATCH

6-foot-4 Senior Jaren Holmes (No. 13)

+ Good shooter; he shoots 37% from 3.

+ Quick hands; averages 1.3 steals per game

- Bad free throw shooter (65.3%)

- Not great at taking care of the ball (2.5 turnovers per game)

- Inefficient scorer; posting a 39.8% field-goal percentage

Tale of the Tape

Iowa State loves to force turnovers and turn them into easy points. Here Holmes slithered between two Texas Tech players, stole the ball and threw down a fastbreak dunk.

KU has to emphasize taking care of the ball and making smart, timely passes. If the Jayhawks do lose the ball, the players need to get back in transition and force a poor free-throw shooting team to the line.

On offense, Iowa State tends to hold the ball and wait for the best available shot. Here, the Cyclones passed the ball around four times and the Red Raiders’ defense got out of position during those passes. Finally, forward Tre King canned a three.

On average, the Cyclones hold the ball for 18.3 seconds per possession, ranking 271st in the nation. So Kansas has to emphasize making Iowa State uncomfortable and control the game’s pace.

Game Prediction

KU comes in after a thrilling comeback victory over Oklahoma at Allen Fieldhouse.

After dealing with an elite three-point OU defense, KU will face an even more formidable challenge from Iowa State.

Iowa State will pressure Kansas players as much as possible, cut off passing lanes and look for any chance to turn its high-pressure defense into easy points. One advantage for Kansas, however, could be the Cyclones’ high tendency to foul, ranking 289th in opponent free throw attempt percentage (36.3). If KU can cause early foul trouble, it will loosen up the pressure and give the Jayhawks more breathing room.

On the other hand, if KU’s defense can cause turnovers against this slow, methodical Iowa State offense, then the Jayhawks should have a significant advantage.

If Kansas doesn’t turn the ball over too much and plays at its own pace, it should walk out of Allen Fieldhouse with a victory. It should be a close one, but KU should pull out in an ugly, defense-oriented win,

Prediction: Kansas 72, Iowa State 66

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Iowa State (+8)

Shreyas’ season record: 7-1

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 6-2

Player to watch: Dajuan Harris Jr.

Harris is typically one of the most important Jayhawk players, but in a game where Kansas’ key to winning is not turning the ball over, he becomes by far the most important. According to CBB Analytics, Harris is second in the nation in assist/usage rate (2.25x). That means he racks up assists without wasting a high number of possessions. If Harris can make wise, timely passes without turning the ball over, the Jayhawks should come out with the victory.