How active has hurricane season been so far? The answer is in the list of storm names

Last year, by Independence Day, we were already into Elsa. Where’s our e-storm for 2022?

On Friday, the National Hurricane Center posted its 7 a.m. advisory, which was to advise the good news that there are no developing systems in the tropics. There is no cyclone activity expected for the next two days.

So far we’ve tracked three named systems in Atlantic waters: Alex, which was a reformation of the Pacific’s Agatha; Bonnie, which formed as a tropical storm in the Atlantic before crossing over into the Pacific, where it became a hurricane; and, most, recently, last weekend’s Colin that was near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Danielle would be next.

Last July’s activity

But by this time in 2021, Elsa reached hurricane strength on July 6, then moved up the western coast of Florida and made landfall as a tropical storm along Florida’s northern Gulf Coast on July 7. A month later, Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the eastern Florida Panhandle on Aug. 16.

Is this relatively tame start normal by July 8?

Depends on perspective.

Experts will note that the most active time in the tropics is in August and September. Remember Hurricane Andrew in August 1992? Hurricane Irma in September 2017? Hurricane Katrina in 2005? Or last year’s Category 4 Hurricane Ida that formed on Aug. 26, dissipated on Sept. 5, but not before becoming the second most damaging hurricane to hit Louisiana since Katrina?

Hurricane season so far

But the 2022 hurricane season is actually running ahead of averages.

“With Tropical Storm Colin forming last weekend, we’re running about a month ahead of normal in terms of number of named storms in the Atlantic,” the National Hurricane Center posted on Twitter Thursday, adding this bright note: “Thankfully, the Atlantic basin looks quiet through the early part of next week!”

Indeed, using data from 1991 through 2020, the hurricane center says a third named system usually isn’t expected until Aug. 3.

Also, noteworthy so far are the number of crossover storms from one ocean to the other.

“Agatha went from the Pacific and reformed in the Atlantic as Alex. Then Bonnie went from the Atlantic and survived intact to remain Bonnie in the Pacific. Having both types occur almost immediately in the season is quite bizarre,” Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, said on Twitter.

What might August bring?

So, quiet weekend aside, is all of this earlier activity cause to suggest we’re in for a whammy in August?

Not necessarily, says WPLG hurricane expert Michael Lowry, who tracked previous hurricane data for his Eye of the Tropics newsletter to determine “that up until now, whether it’s active, calm, or something in between, we can’t associate activity today to storminess (or lack thereof) tomorrow. By middle and late August, there is some relationship between tropical activity to-date and what’s ahead, but it isn’t especially strong.”

Most of the hurricane season is still ahead of us.

“Whether it’s been active or not so far holds little weight relative to the bulk of activity in August, September, and early October,” Lowry notes. “The bottom line: don’t try to read the tea leaves today and check back later in August.”

In other words, chill out and enjoy the respite this weekend.

Local weekend weather forecast

All we really have to deal with this weekend in South Florida is the chance for thunderstorms and heat indices pushing 105 degrees, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

There is a 40% chance of thunderstorms Friday and that rises to 50% Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Some of these storms could bring localized flooding. There’s only a moderate risk for rip currents at east coastal beaches, however.

Stay hydrated and swim near a lifeguard station just to be on the safe side.