AccuWeather's updated Atlantic hurricane forecast calls for more named storms, and a busy time ahead

The first two months of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season are in the books, and AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that tropical activity is about to ramp up.

There have already been five storms so far this year, including an unnamed subtropical storm in January, three tropical storms in June and a hurricane in July. The season is pacing ahead of the historical average for the number of named storms to date, and the average date for the fifth storm of the season to form is Aug. 22. Also, the average first date of hurricane development is Aug. 11, so the first hurricane also developed ahead of the average.

"The heart of the season is what we look at very closely; that's basically from the latter part of August through September," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.

This image provided by the National Hurricane Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows a satellite view as Hurricane Fiona moves up the United States Atlantic coast, Thursday night, Sept. 22, 2022. (NOAA via AP)

With peak season on the horizon, AccuWeather meteorologists have issued an update to the Atlantic hurricane season forecast:

This hurricane season could be the eighth in a row, with the number of named storms being at or above the historical average of 14. The last time a season ended below this benchmark was in 2015 when only 11 named systems developed.

AccuWeather is forecasting 13 to 17 named storms this year, higher than the initial forecast of 11 to 15 storms issued in March. Additionally, four to eight hurricanes, one to three major hurricanes and two to four direct U.S. impacts are in the forecast, with those numbers staying the same from the original outlook.

The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is another parameter that forecasters analyze to determine how much wind energy is generated by a named tropical system over its lifetime. A weak, short-lived system results in a small ACE value, while a long-lived hurricane results in a higher ACE value.

AccuWeather forecasters say the ACE this hurricane season will reach 105 to 135, which is around or above the 30-year historical average of 123 and up from the initial forecast of 75 to 105.

El Niño developed in early June, and while it is related to warm water in the Pacific Ocean, it can have a ripple effect in the atmosphere that results in more disruptive winds across the Atlantic Ocean. Typically, El Niño results in fewer tropical systems in the Atlantic compared to La Niña, but the full effect of the pattern shift can be delayed.

"There's a lag between La Niña and El Niño," Kottlowski explained.

This lag means that the first half of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will likely have more named storms and hurricanes than the second half.

"Please get your hurricane plan in place because we could get very active in late August into September," Kottlowski added.

While fewer tropical systems are predicted to spin up in October and November, this part of the season may not be completely quiet.

This photo provided by NASA shows Hurricane Florence from the International Space Station Sept. 10, 2018, as it threatens the U.S. East Coast. (NASA via AP)

The other driving factor behind the update to AccuWeather's hurricane forecast is the widespread warmth in the areas where tropical systems typically track.

GET THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
•Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+

"Water temperatures across the Atlantic Basin are at record levels," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said. For instance, a marine heat wave has pushed sea surface temperatures to extreme levels near South Florida.

The warmer water means the tropical systems have a higher chance of development and rapid intensification.

Click here to read more about the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast and the prediction for the weather across the U.S. this fall.

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.