ACC preview: Unbeaten NC State rises, but Notre Dame still a threat if backcourt is healthy

The ACC title was projected for Virginia Tech, a 2023 Final Four program returning its Naismith finalist center, Elizabeth Kitley, along with Georgia Amoore, one of the best guards in the country.

Instead, NC State is the talk of the nation heading into the heart of conference play this month and the new favorite to finish atop a talented ACC featuring Notre Dame, North Carolina, Louisville and Florida State.

Eight ACC teams made the 2023 NCAA tournament, more than any other conference in the country. Virginia Tech, Miami and Louisville all reached the Elite Eight, tied for the Big Ten with the most of any conference. Miami (regional final), a No. 9 seed, and No. 1-seeded Virginia Tech (semifinals) each lost to eventual champion LSU in the tournament. No. 5 seed Louisville lost to Iowa in the regional final.

The ACC’s tournament entries could increase this season, with between nine and 10 teams projected in early bracketology predictions. The ACC should be one of the most competitive conferences in the nation next to the Pac-12.

ACC outlook: NC State new favorite

The Wolfpack, ranked No. 3 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll, were projected by the conference to finish eighth of 15 teams after going 9-9 in the conference last season. They did not have a player named to the 10-player preseason All-ACC Team, nor did they have a player on the five-person Newcomer Watch List.

Unranked to begin the season, NC State (12-0) quickly entered the poll with a stunning 92-81 victory over then-No. 2 UConn and moved up again with a 78-60 win against then-No. 3 Colorado. It has solidly been a top-five team for more than a month.

“We were picked to finish eighth in the ACC, and we weren’t ranked two weeks ago,” head coach Wes Moore told the AP on Nov. 27 after the Wolfpack moved up to fifth. “It’s what I’ve been telling them: ‘Stay hungry, stay hungry, and keep doing what you’ve been doing.’ Right now, they’re putting the team first and not caring who gets the credit.”

Aziaha James, a 5-foot-9 junior guard, is thriving in a starter role, averaging a team-high 16.4 ppg and shooting 41.9% on a team-high 5.6 3s per game. Saniya Rivers, a 6-foot-1 junior guard who began her collegiate career at South Carolina, is averaging a career-best 13.7 ppg and 4.4 apg as a starter.

And 6-foot-5 fifth-year center River Baldwin, who played her first three years at Florida State, has also stepped up as a first-year Wolfpack starter. She’s the most successful she has ever been in getting to the free-throw line and the best she has been while there shooting 87.5%. Her 12 blocks almost match the 18 she had all of last season, and her 12 assists surpass last season’s 10.

ACC’s loaded battle at the top

Virginia Tech (9-2) returns Naismith finalist Kitley (20.6 ppg, 11.1 rpg) and All-ACC guard Amoore (17 ppg, 7.8 apg ranks second in Div. I), but it will take time to piece together a new roster around them. The Hokies won the ACC tournament title for the first time last spring.

Kayana Traylor (11 ppg in 2023-24) and Taylor Soule (10.9 ppg, 51.7 FG%) both graduated. The Hokies lost to Iowa and LSU in the nonconference slate and need to develop assets around their two stars to create space and offensive opportunities.

Notre Dame, the 2023 regular-season ACC champion, leads the league in scoring (90.3 ppg) and has one of the best backcourts in the nation when healthy.

The team is awaiting the return of point guard Olivia Miles, a junior who injured her knee in the ACC tournament last year. Miles averaged 14.3 ppg, 6.9 apg (ranking sixth) and 2.1 spg in her second full season with the Fighting Irish. She enrolled early in 2021.

The Fighting Irish (8-1) are also currently without junior guard Sonia Citron, who sustained a sprained knee after three games, and freshman guard Cassandre Prosper, who enrolled early last season.

True freshman guard Hannah Hidalgo, an ACC Newcomer of the Year preseason selection, has kept the Fighting Irish going strong, averaging 23.6 ppg (fifth), 6.1 spg, 5.9 rpg and 5.8 apg (25th). Hidalgo is already a four-time ACC Rookie of the Week winner.

Florida State (9-3) guard Ta’Niya Latson, the reigning ACC Player of the Year, paces the second-best offense in the league (83.2 ppg). Four players average double-digit points, led by Latson (18.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 1.8 spg) and junior guard O’Mariah Gordon (14.2 ppg, 4.3 apg). The Seminoles thrive on forcing turnovers.

North Carolina (8-4) competes strongly with the best programs (UConn, South Carolina) but has had serious hiccups in its offense. Most of its offensive shooting stats rank in the bottom third of Division I.

Deja Kelly, a 5-foot-8 senior guard, remains consistent at 15.3 ppg, as does 6-foot-1 wing Alyssa Ustby (12.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 3.3 apg). Maria Gakdeng, an in-conference transfer from Boston College, is a key addition in the post and stepped up in a big matchup with WNBA prospect and 6-foot-7 South Carolina center Kamilla Cardoso.

Louisville (11-2) returns one starter from last season’s team and notably lost guard Hailey Van Lith (19.7 ppg, 3.2 apg in 2022-23) after her transfer to LSU. Head coach Jeff Walz brought in six players from the transfer portal to fill holes, and the team’s typical defensive identity will be a work in progress.

Duke (7-4, 0-1) nearly upset Stanford earlier in the season, putting the Blue Devils on the map in Kara Lawson’s fourth season. The Blue Devils finished tied for second with Virginia Tech at 14-4 in the ACC last season but return only five players and none of their go-to stars. Defensive standout Celeste Taylor transferred to Ohio State.

Miami (9-1) is tied with North Carolina to lead the ACC defensively through the nonconference schedule (55.3 ppg allowed).

Clemson (8-5, 1-0) could surprise again. The Tigers finished 7-11 in ACC play and return Amari Robinson atop a roster that has scored 7,619 career points in Division I, the most of any active roster in the ACC and eighth-most of any team in the country.

Last season’s team upset Virginia Tech and Florida State and came within three of Notre Dame and Miami (twice). The Tigers lost in the quarterfinals of the WNIT to Florida. This fall, they broke the 100-point threshold for the first time since 2009 in a win over Longwood.

Under-the-radar player to watch

Syracuse fifth-year guard Dyaisha Fair is one of 50 players named to the 2023-24 Naismith Women’s Player of the Year watchlist. But the 5-foot-5 guard is often overlooked as the Orange build their program back to an ACC title contender under second-year head coach Felisha Legette-Jack.

Fair entered the season second among all active Division I players with 2,691 points, trailing only 2023 Naismith winner Caitlin Clark of Iowa (2,717 points). Against Cornell this month, Fair moved into 21st on the all-time Division I career scorers list with 2,889 points.

Her 19.2 ppg ranks fourth in the ACC, and she leads the conference in both 3-pointers per game (3.2) and 3-point field-goal percentage (41.6%).

Fair, a Rochester, New York, native, played three years for Legette-Jack at Buffalo and placed top-five in scoring every season. Fair went with Legette-Jack to Syracuse ahead of the 2022-23 season and opted to use her extra eligibility. She is averaging 20.1 points, 4.1 assists and 2.4 steals over 41 games.

Yahoo Sports’ prediction to win the conference

Eden Laase: Notre Dame

Cassandra Negley: Notre Dame

No one is going undefeated through the ACC gauntlet, and the team that wins might have four or five losses and earn the title with a tiebreaker. Assuming Miles and Citron return in the first half of the schedule, the Fighting Irish have the best backcourt, a strong returning scorer in forward Maddy Westbeld (14.2 ppg, 9.9 rpg) and a steal maestro in Hidalgo.

Teams that could make noise in March

A healthy Notre Dame backcourt could be the best chance for an ACC team to reach the Final Four. The Fighting Irish were long-shot favorites to upset the higher seeds before Miles’ injury last season and did not lose many key pieces.

But as Miami and Louisville each showed in their tourney upset runs last season, the conference is deep. NC State and Virginia Tech appear to be early locks for quality at-large bids and most likely to join Notre Dame out of the opening weekend.

North Carolina, Louisville and Miami would be the next tier, and as they solidify defensively, each could make deep runs.

Duke and Syracuse could surprise people and slide into the tournament, then make some noise against better seeds in the first weekend. And Clemson might make it to one of the last four in — or surprise and go a little higher.