ACC football predictions: Top contenders, sleepers and championship picks
Are we on track to get our first matchup between Clemson and Florida State in the ACC title game?
The two ACC favorites have been Atlantic Division rivals and unable to meet in the title game since the ACC championship game was first played in 2005. But with the ACC's 2023 move to scrap the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions, we could get two games between the Tigers and Seminoles this season.
Or will someone else sneak into the title game? There doesn't appear to be a clear No. 3 in the ACC this season, but a team like North Carolina with QB Drake Maye or Louisville in Jeff Brohm's first season back at his alma mater could make a push to make the championship.
Here's what you need to know about the ACC heading into the season. All odds are from BetMGM.
Clemson (+140 to win ACC)
2022 record: 11-3 (9-0 ACC)
National title odds: (+1800)
Over/under: 10 wins
The Air Raid has come to Clemson.
After two underwhelming offensive seasons, Clemson made a quarterback switch at the end of 2022 and a philosophical switch during the offseason. QB Cade Klubnik was impressive in the ACC title game and is now working with former TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley after Clemson made Riley one of the highest-paid assistants in the country.
The defense was very good once again in 2022 and should be top-notch in 2023 with eight starters back including leading tackler Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and the entire starting secondary. There’s a case to be made that Clemson should be much more active in the transfer portal, but that’s a philosophical shift Dabo Swinney hasn’t made yet. It was surprising enough that the offense is looking at such a major change ahead of 2023.
Both Florida State and Notre Dame visit Death Valley and the toughest road games are either at Miami, at NC State or at South Carolina.
Florida State (+170)
2022 record: 10-3 (5-3)
National title odds: (+1800)
Over/under: 9.5 wins
The Seminoles are essentially co-favorites with Clemson to win the ACC and it’s easy to see why after a resurgent 2022.
Quarterback Jordan Travis had a breakout season and is the preseason No. 6 favorite to win the Heisman (+1600) right behind Klubnik. Travis had 32 total touchdowns in 2022 and now has former Michigan State wide receiver Keon Coleman. Coleman was a spring transfer and should take defenses’ attention away from Johnny Wilson on the outside. The running game should be very good again with the return of Trey Benson; he rushed for nearly 1,000 yards and averaged over six yards a carry.
Jared Verse leads a defense that added depth across the board via the transfer portal and returns seven starters.
The Seminoles’ over/under is a half-game lower than Clemson’s thanks to a Week 1 game against LSU. That game is three weeks before the Seminoles travel to Clemson in what could very well be a preview of the ACC title game in December.
North Carolina (+900)
2022 record: 9-5 (6-2)
National title odds: (+12500)
Over/under: 8 wins
Just how much help will Drake Maye have on offense? Maye is widely considered a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft but is one of just five starters who return on offense. UNC added Tez Walker and Nate McCollum via the transfer portal to replace departed players. But Walker's transfer waiver to play right away was denied by the NCAA; unless his appeal is successful, then he won’t be able to see the field in 2023.
The Tar Heel defense gave up 31 points per game a season ago and were the worst in the ACC. That performance may make it less concerning that the secondary returns just one starter.
UNC avoids both FSU and Louisville in conference play and ends the season with road games at Clemson and NC State. Given the relative ease of their ACC schedule, it won’t be a surprise if the Tar Heels are mathematically alive for the title game heading into that Clemson matchup on Nov. 18.
Louisville (+1000)
2022 record: 8-5 (4-4)
National title odds: (+25000)
Over/under: 8 wins
Jeff Brohm’s return to Louisville is set up for immediate success.
The former Purdue coach’s team doesn’t have to face Clemson, Florida State or North Carolina in 2023. That easy schedule is a big reason why Louisville is the No. 4 favorite to win the ACC and a sleeper candidate to get to nine or 10 wins.
Jack Plummer, once one of Brohm's QBs at Purdue, rejoins his former coach at Louisville after a stint at Cal in 2022. He joins an offense that has just four starters back, but running backs Jawhar Jordan and Maurice Turner both return after combining to rush for over 1,100 yards.
The defense needs to replace quite a bit of pass rush production, but the secondary adds numerous transfers, including Marcus Washington from Georgia, former UNC CB Storm Duck and ex-Virginia safety Cam Kelly.
NC State (+2000)
2022 record: 8-5 (4-4)
National title odds: (+35000)
Over/under: 6.5 wins
Former Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong arrives in Raleigh with the Wolfpack coaching staff hoping he is the team’s starter for the entirety of the 2023 season.
Four NC State QBs made starts in 2022. Armstrong took a step back in a trying 2022 season for Virginia but completed 65% of his passes for 4,449 yards and 31 TDs in 2021. He likely won’t put up stats like that in 2023, but he should be a lot better than in 2022 as he reunites with Robert Anae, his former offensive coordinator at Virginia.
LB Payton Wilson is back for a sixth year and defensive end Savion Jackson returns from a knee injury. Shyheim Battle and Aydan White form a very good cornerback duo and combined for six interceptions a season ago. The schedule includes Notre Dame, Louisville, Clemson, Miami and North Carolina along with a trip to Wake Forest.
Miami (+2000)
2022 record: 5-7 (3-5)
National title odds: (+12500)
Over/under: 7.5 wins
Mario Cristobal’s second season at Miami has to be better than his first.
Miami was one of college football’s biggest underachievers as it lost at home to Middle Tennessee and was blown out by Florida State, Clemson and Pitt in three of the final four weeks of the regular season.
QB Tyler Van Dyke appeared in just nine games due to injury and threw a combined 16 passes against FSU and Pitt. After a stellar freshman season, his health is paramount to the Miami offense’s success.
Safety Kamren Kinchens is back to lead the defense but it needs to be a lot better after allowing nearly six yards per play in 2022.
Pittsburgh (+2500)
2022 record: 9-4 (5-3)
National title odds: (+50000)
Over/under: 7 wins
The Panthers are set for their third starting QB in as many seasons with Boston College transfer Phil Jurkovec taking over for Kedon Slovis.
Jurkovec showed flashes as the starter at BC since he transferred from Notre Dame but has been limited to 14 games over the past two seasons due to injury. He’ll be playing at Pitt for Frank Cignetti, his offensive coordinator with the Eagles in 2020 and 2021.
The defense loses Calijah Kancey but Pat Narduzzi’s teams have been exceptional at developing defensive linemen. Don’t expect a big drop-off up front.
Duke (+3000)
2022 record: 9-4 (5-3)
National title odds: (+50000)
Over/under: 6 wins
What can Duke do for an encore after a big turnaround in 2022?
QB Riley Leonard threw for nearly 3,000 yards and rushed for almost 700 as he scored 33 total touchdowns. He’s back for another season along with seven other starters on an offense that averaged 6.1 yards per play.
The defense also made a huge leap in coach Mike Elko’s first season and allowed 22 points per game after giving up nearly 40 a game in 2021.
The schedule includes both Clemson and Florida State as well as Notre Dame, Louisville and Pitt. That’s why Duke’s win total is so low. But be wary if you’re betting the under.
Wake Forest (+5000)
2022 record: 8-5 (3-5)
National title odds: (+50000)
Over/under: 6.5 wins
With Sam Hartman now at Notre Dame, Wake Forest will have a new starter in 2023. Mitch Griffis is in line to take over in his fourth season in the program. RB Justice Ellison is back after rushing for 707 yards but the team needs to figure out who will become Griffis’ No. 1 receiving option. The offensive line also needs to replace three starters.
There will be a lot of familiar faces in new starting roles on a defense that has a lot of experience. Jasheen Davis had seven sacks a year ago to lead the team but every other player who had at least three sacks is no longer on the roster.
Syracuse (+6600)
2022 record: 7-6 (4-4)
National title odds: N/A
Over/under: 6 wins
After a hot start to the 2022 season, Syracuse needed a win over Boston College in the final week of the season to ensure a winning record for the season.
Syracuse stumbled in ACC play with five consecutive losses after a 24-9 win over NC State on Oct. 15. QB Garrett Shrader is back for another season while QB coach Jason Beck is now the offensive coordinator.
Former San Diego State coach Rocky Long is in charge of a defense that needs to restock in the secondary. Don’t bank on another hot start, either. The Orange visit Purdue in Week 3 and host Clemson two weeks later.
Virginia Tech (+10000)
2022 record: 3-8 (1-6)
National title odds: N/A
Over/under: 5.5 wins
The Hokies needed all the help they could get on offense during the offseason. After scoring just 19 points per game in 2022, Virginia Tech added WRs Ali Jennings (Old Dominion), Da’Quan Felton (Norfolk State) and Jaylin Lane (Middle Tennessee State) via the transfer portal. Former Baylor QB Kyron Drones is also in Blacksburg and will compete with Grant Wells to be the team’s starting QB.
The run game also needs help. Virginia Tech barely rushed for over three yards a carry and North Carolina A&T transfer Bhayshul Tuten should help that cause after he rushed for 1,363 yards on 208 carries in 2022. Tuten will team up with Malachi Thomas in the Hokies' backfield.
The secondary should be very good but the front seven is still figuring out who to rely on. Road games against Rutgers and Marshall are good September tests.
Boston College (+15000)
2022 record: 3-9 (2-6)
National title odds: N/A
Over/under: 5.5 wins
Emmett Morehead is the team’s undisputed starter after taking over when Jurkovec was injured in 2022. With Zay Flowers now in the NFL, the Eagles added former UCF wide receiver Ryan O’Keefe in the transfer portal.
The defense could be better than expected with six senior starters along with Donovan Ezeiruaku. He had a breakout season in 2022 with 14.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks.
A three- or four-win improvement is very possible in 2023. The Eagles open with three straight home games culminating with a visit from Florida State on Sept. 16.
Georgia Tech (+15000)
2022 record: 5-7 (4-4)
National title odds: N/A
Over/under: 4.5 wins
The Yellow Jackets were competent after Brent Key took over in 2022.
Key became the team’s interim coach following the firing of Geoff Collins after a 1-3 start. Georgia Tech went 4-4 during Key’s eight games leading the team and got wins over North Carolina, Pitt and Duke. Key then had the interim tag removed.
The four starters back on offense are all on the offensive line. Former Texas A&M QB Haynes King, who will compete with returnee Zach Pyron to be the starter, is hoping for a fresh start at GT after a rough campaign in College Station. King wasn’t the offense’s only transfer portal addition; WR Christian Leary (Alabama), WR Abdul Janneh (Duquesne), WR Chase Lane (Texas A&M) and RB Trevion Cooley (Louisville) also joined over the offseason and could get playing time right away.
Virginia (+20000)
2022 record: 3-7 (1-6)
National title odds: N/A
Over/under: 3 wins
The Cavaliers didn’t play their final two games of the 2022 season after a horrific shooting on campus wounded Mike Hollins and killed D’Sean Perry, Devin Chandler and Lavel Davis Jr.
Hollins made an amazing return to the field in Virginia’s spring game after rehabbing tirelessly and we can’t wait to see him have a carry during the regular season. He’s one of just a handful of Virginia players returning on offense who have significant experience.
The defense returns the entire starting line and two members of the secondary. The schedule is tough with a game against Tennessee to start and a sneaky James Madison team in Week 2 before a visit to Maryland.
Overrated team
Nick Bromberg: Miami.
Sam Cooper: North Carolina.
Sleeper team
Nick: Pitt.
Sam: Miami.
Title pick
Nick: Florida State. I like the shift in offensive philosophy at Clemson and think Klubnik is a QB who can make the Tigers' offense better than it's been since the days of Trevor Lawrence. But I'm sold on Florida State this year with the returning talent and additions via the transfer portal.
Sam: Clemson. FSU beat a bunch of bad teams last year and still has a few position groups on defense I'm not sold on, so I think the hype is a bit overblown there. I don't see the Tigers getting back to the CFP, but I'm a believer in the changes made on offense and they have the benefit of facing both FSU and Notre Dame at home.
