Academy Awards 2023 prediction: ‘Everything Everywhere’ and all at once
If “Everything Everywhere All at Once” seems everywhere, it’s because it’s leading the 95th annual Academy Awards with 11 nominations.
“All Quiet on the Western Front” and “The Banshees of Inisherin” follow with nine nominations each, followed by “Elvis” with eight.
This year, the Oscars have set a new record for the most Asian actors nominated in a single year with four: Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu and Hong Chau. Since the first Academy Awards in 1929, less than 20 Asian actors have ever been nominated.
And 16 of the 20 acting noms this year are first-time nominees, a rarity, including the entire leading actor category, which spans from 26-year-old Paul Mescal to 73-year-old Bill Nighy.
The Academy Awards will be telecast on ABC on Sunday, March 12, at 7 p.m. Central.
It’s always futile to try to outguess the Academy. But it’s always fun to try. Here, then, are my predictions for this year’s Oscar winners.
BEST PICTURE
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Triangle of Sadness”
“Women Talking”
“All Quiet” is the rare film to nab nominations for both Best International Film and Best Picture. Well deserved — it is hauntingly beautiful and devastating.
But all signs point to “Everything Everywhere” to win Best Picture. It’s wonderfully, giddily bonkers and proud of it. It has also surprisingly strong emotional heft.
Although there have been some upsets for best picture in recent years (”Parasite,” “CODA,” “Moonlight”), this seems like a solid lock. But if there were a surprise underdog, it would probably be “All Quiet.”
Oscar guess: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
My vote: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
DIRECTING
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans,” Steven Spielberg
“Tár,” Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness,” Ruben Östlund
McDonagh won an Oscar previously for the short film “Six Shooter,” and Spielberg has won three times (for directing and producing “Schindler’s List” and directing “Saving Private Ryan”) and this is Field’s sixth nomination (he previously was nominated for writing “Little Children” and for writing and producing “In the Bedroom”). Everyone else are first-time nominees, although the “Daniels” (as they’ve come to be known) both received three nominations this year for writing, directing and producing “Everything Everywhere.”
The Daniels also just won the Director’s Guild award, and seem poised to win the Oscar, as well. If so, they’ll be the just the third duo to win a directing Oscar (after Jerome Robbins and Robert Wise for “West Side Story” and Joel and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men”). And rightly so. “Everything” is a wonderfully complicated, thickly plotted story, but the Daniels never let it feel overwhelming, but instead dazzling and euphoric.
Oscar guess: The Daniels for “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
My vote: The Daniels
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler, “Elvis”
Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”
Bill Nighy, “Living”
All are first-time nominees.
Mescal and Nighy are long shots, as is Farrell (although who knew he had it in him? It’s a wonderful, detailed performance.)
And that comes down to Butler, who just won the BAFTA (the British version of the Oscars) award for lead actor and previously won the Golden Globe. It’s a dazzling, robust performance that he never lets slip into caricature.
But Fraser is the one to beat, especially since he just won the Screen Actors Guild award with a heartfelt, humble speech (final Oscars voting ends March 7). But it is a staggering, transformative performance. Not just physically, but spiritually, as well. He received a six-minute standing ovation at the film’s premiere at the Venice International Film Festival, and rightly so.
He’s also well respected and likable with a lengthy career that spans decades, even though he faded from view in the recent past. But Oscar loves a great comeback story.
Oscar guess: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
My vote: Fraser
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, “Tár”
Ana de Armas, “Blonde”
Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”
Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
De Armas and Riseborough are long shots with their first nominations.
This is Williams’ fifth nomination (after supporting for “Brokeback Mountain” and “Manchester By the Sea,” and leading for “Blue Valentine” and “My Week with Marilyn”). She gives a nice, emotional performance as a heartbroken mother, but it’s hardly a powerhouse one. (But she’s so consistently good, she has raised a high bar for herself.)
Blanchett has won twice before (supporting for “The Aviator” and lead for “Blue Jasmine”), and this is her eighth nomination. Many were saying that “Tar” is her best performance to date, but I think she was better in “Blue Jasmine,” although her performance in “Tar” is certainly fierce. Again, she has raised a high bar for herself.
But Yeoh is coming in hot after her SAG Award best actress win, and that certainly added fuel to her flame. It’s a great, imaginative performance that’s emotional but also staggeringly physical — at 60 years old. This is her first Oscar nomination, and if she does win, she’ll be the first Asian actress to do so in this category.
Oscar guess: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
My vote: Yeoh
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”
Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”
Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Only Hirsch has been nominated before (supporting for “Ordinary People”). And he stole the screen in “Fabelmans” in a role that had very limited screen time. He’s not getting any buzz to win, though.
Keoghan won the BAFTA supporting actor award, but he doesn’t seem to be a favorite here.
Gleeson is a long shot, though it’s a fine performance. And Henry is a surprise nomination.
So most signs point to Quan. He won the Golden Globe and the SAG supporting actor award (with an emotional, rousing speech). So I think the kid from “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom” is most definitely going to be an Oscar winner for an all-in, bold performance.
Oscar guess: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
My vote: Quan
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau, “The Whale”
Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Only Bassett has been nominated before (lead actress for “What’s Love Got to Do With It”). She’s effortlessly good, and delivers another noble performance in “Wakanda.”
Chau and Hsu make history as two Asian actresses nominated in the same year in this category. But neither are getting much buzz to win.
And while this category has historically pulled upsets, it’s again hard to call this year.
Bassett is a favorite in some circles, Condon in others for her performance as an exasperated but dutiful sister (she won the BAFTA award).
But Curtis just came off a triumphant win at the SAG awards with a rousing, funny speech. Again, she also has had a long, respected career, and a win would honor that. Also, her performance in “Everything” is brave, fearless and egoless.
Oscar guess: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
My vote: Curtis
Here are my predictions in the other Oscar categories:
COSTUME DESIGN
“Babylon“
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever“
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”
Prediction: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever“
SOUND
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Batman”
“Elvis”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Prediction: “Top Gun: Maverick”
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Volker Bertelmann
“Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Carter Burwell
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Son Lux
“The Fabelmans,” John Williams
Prediction: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
“This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
Prediction: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson
“Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
“Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley
Prediction: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans,” Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
“Tár,” Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness,” Ruben Östlund
Prediction: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
“An Irish Goodbye,” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu,” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille,” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
“Night Ride,” Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
“The Red Suitcase,” Cyrus Neshvad
Prediction: “An Irish Goodbye”
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
“The Flying Sailor”
“Ice Merchants”
“My Year of Dicks”
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”
Prediction: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
“The Sea Beast”
“Turning Red”
Prediction: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Germany
“Argentina, 1985,” Argentina
“Close,” Belgium
“EO,” Poland
“The Quiet Girl,” Ireland
Prediction: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“The Batman”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
“The Whale”
Prediction: “The Whale”
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Babylon”
“Elvis”
“The Fabelmans”
Prediction: “Babylon”
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” James Friend
“Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji “Elvis,” Mandy Walker
“Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins
“Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister
Prediction: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
VISUAL EFFECTS
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Batman”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Prediction: “Avatar: The Way of Water”
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“All That Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“Fire of Love”
“A House Made of Splinters”
“Navalny”
Prediction: “Fire of Love”
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“The Elephant Whisperers”
“Haulout”
“How Do You Measure a Year?”
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”
“Stranger at the Gate”
Prediction: “The Elephant Whisperers”
FILM EDITING
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Prediction: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Reach Rod Pocowatchit at rodrick@rawdzilla.com.
