Will abortion rights give Democrats a shot at the U.S. Senate seat in Missouri? They hope so

Freshly christened Democratic nominee Trudy Busch Valentine walked into Chris’ Pancake and Dining on Wednesday morning and did a lap, shaking the hands of people there to eat—some there to see her, others who just wanted a tall stack of pancakes.

It was a brief victory lap before beginning what will be an uphill battle in her campaign for U.S. Senate, where she will face Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt. Already, elections analysts like the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball had moved the race from “likely Republican” to “safe Republican” after Schmitt beat back scandal-plagued former Gov. Eric Greitens’ attempt at a political comeback Tuesday night.

But if there was one thing injecting hope into Democrats Wednesday morning, it was a vote across in neighboring Kansas, where voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would eliminate the right to an abortion in the state, a massive victory for abortion rights advocates in a red state.

“I think that abortion rights, the intelligence, the autonomy and the independence of a woman, and the right to choose is going to be a big, big thing in this election,” Busch Valentine said.

The U.S. Senate race in Missouri pits two candidates diametrically opposed on abortion rights against each other.

On one side Schmitt, who as state attorney general enacted Missouri’s strict ban on abortion, one that does not include exceptions for rape or incest. On the other is Busch Valentine, an abortion rights supporter who is emphasizing her background as a nurse in an effort to bolster her credentials on women’s health issues.

As Republicans hound Democrats over inflation, crime, high gas prices and President Joe Biden’s approval rating, Democrats have made it clear that they plan to emphasize abortion rights— particularly by painting Republicans as extreme on the issue and highlighting efforts to implement a federal ban on the procedure.

In the U.S. Senate Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York., said that if voters could roundly reject abortion restrictions in Kansas, it could happen in other conservative states as well.

“The strong pro-choice turnout we saw last night in Kansas will continue well into the fall,” Schumer said. “And the Republicans who side with these extremist MAGA policies that attack women’s rights do so at their own political risk.”

In Missouri, the issue may not be enough to close what has become a large gap between Republicans and Democrats in a state that only has one statewide elected Democratic official.

“Trudy has a huge gap to close and it’s tough to close it on only one issue,” said Stephen Webber, the former chair of the Missouri Democratic Party. “You have to close it a lot of different ways.”

There is also the nature of the two elections.

In Kansas, the vote was strictly about abortion and whether or not there should be protections in the state constitution. There were no other issues entwined in the question, no candidate personalities to weigh, no political party alignment to consider.

“It eliminates so much of the noise that is normally present in our elections,” Jacob Rubashkin, a reporter and analyst at Inside Elections. “And what we’ve seen in recent years is that you can get these somewhat idiosyncratic results on specific policies out of red states.”

Missouri is a prime example. In recent years, voters have approved ballot measures legalizing medicinal marijuana, raising the minimum wage and striking down anti-union legislation in a primary and then overwhelmingly voted for lawmakers who oppose those positions in a general election.

In the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, sending decisions on abortion rights back to the states, Schmitt quickly signed an order triggering Missouri’s ban, which includes no exceptions for rape or incest. Amid an intense primary battle, he proudly took credit for being the elected official who implemented a ban passed by the legislature in 2019.

“The trigger law he enacted is so extreme that I think it will be a negative for him,” Webber said. “Moving forward, is it enough from the negative is obviously a question, but I think it was helpful in the primary and it’s gonna be harmful in the general.”

Schmitt’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Jean Evans, the former executive director of the Missouri Republican Party, said that as long as Republicans, including Schmitt, convey a reasonable tone regarding abortion, they will be successful in November.

”When you start talking about banning IUDs and other forms of birth control, you are turning off a lot of women including Republican women,” she said. “I think as long as they stick to the message of being pro life, I think he’ll be fine. It’s a popular issue in Missouri.”

At his election night party, David Eidelman, a Schmitt supporter from Clayton, said he felt that Schmitt had the best chance to win in November. However, he and his wife Rachel described themselves as “pro choice Republicans.”

Diann Bomkamp, a Schmitt supporter from Creve Coeur, said she thinks abortion, particularly Schmitt’s role in helping enact Missouri’s ban, will be front and center in the upcoming general election.

“I hope it helps him in Missouri because I’m very pro life,” she said. “We have people on both sides of the coin. We have a lot of even like suburban women that are more pro choice than maybe pro life in some areas of the state. But I hope that Missouri does continue to stand up for life and Eric will do that if he’s elected.”

Both Missouri and Kansas have a long history of battles on abortion rights, but the voter response may manifest differently in Kansas, which has become a regional hub for people seeking an abortion.

“Kansas has a streak of Plains populism, and individualism that can manifest itself in interesting ways, like we saw last night,” Rubashkin said. “And I’m not so confident that Missouri has that same kind of political tendency.”

Still, Democrats are optimistic that abortion rights will be an issue that can help them overcome the highest inflation in decades and President Joe Biden’s low approval rating, to stem a Republican wave in November.

State Sen. Lauren Arthur, a Kansas City Democrat, acknowledged that Democrats face strong headwinds in the upcoming U.S. Senate election, but she said Missouri has an opportunity to say that abortion is on the ballot.

“I think this election is different because the idea of a national abortion ban supported by Schmitt could actually happen,” she said. “It’s no longer a theory. It’s a real, very scary possibility. And that was never true before but now it is. I think Kansas voters recognized that possibility, they showed up and they voted.”