Here are 3 ways FSU men's basketball can snap its losing skid against No. 9 Duke

Florida State men's basketball has hit a losing skid over the last month.

After starting ACC play 5-1, the Seminoles are 2-5 over their last seven, dropping into a four-way tie for fifth in the conference with seven games left in the regular season.

One of those results was a Quad 3 loss to Louisville, 101-92.

The NCAA adopted a four-tiered system for 2017-18 to better evaluate game results. Quad 3 is the most likely category for a team to suffer a “bad” loss.

FSU is now 2-4 in Quad 3 games and 2-5 in Quad 1 (considered "good" wins) games.

It doesn't get any easier Saturday as the Seminoles host No. 9 Duke at 2 p.m. at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center.

According to ESPN, the Seminoles have a 26.4% chance to beat the Blue Devils. FSU enters at 13-11 overall, 7-6 in the ACC. Duke is 19-5, 10-3.

Here are three ways the Seminoles can pull off the upset and get back on track.

Win the rebounding game

Florida State men's basketball faced North Carolina on Jan. 27, 2024 at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center.
Florida State men's basketball faced North Carolina on Jan. 27, 2024 at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center.

The Seminoles played a tight game against Virginia Tech Tuesday. They were tied with the Hokies at halftime, and it appeared the pair was headed to another close finish. However, Virginia Tech dominated FSU on the boards to put the game away.

The Hokies outrebounded the Seminoles, 35-23 - 13-6 on the offensive end. Lynn Kidd, who had just two points and eight rebounds in Virginia Tech's first meeting against FSU, had 12 points and a team-high 15 rebounds.

Duke is averaging 36 rebounds a game. Similar to Kidd, Duke center Kyle Filipowski is averaging a near double-double with 8.3 rebounds and 17.4 points per game. Mark Mitchell is averaging 13.1 points and 6.5 rebounds and Jared McCain is averaging 12.9 points and five rebounds.

Duke can execute on both ends of the court. FSU has proven throughout the season that it can keep up offensively, but its defense needs to take a big step and contest rebounds.

It can't give away games like it did against the Hokies.

Don't make Jamir Watkins carry the load

North Carolina Tar Heels center Armando Bacot (5) and Florida State Seminoles forward De'Ante Green (5) exchange words as forward Jamir Watkins (2) intervenes during the first half January 27, 2024, at Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.
North Carolina Tar Heels center Armando Bacot (5) and Florida State Seminoles forward De'Ante Green (5) exchange words as forward Jamir Watkins (2) intervenes during the first half January 27, 2024, at Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Guard Jamir Watkins' transfer from VCU to FSU this season has been a lot more important than expected as he has kept the Seminoles in games that they would've been out of without him.

In losses to Lipscomb, Virginia, Virginia Tech and North Carolina, Watkins has at least 17 points. He essentially carried FSU to a win over Syracuse off a season-high 27 points. He nearly matched that in the loss to Virginia with 26 points.

When FSU's "win by committee" system is not working, Watkins is the one who has to do just about everything on offense to give the Seminoles a fighting chance. In games where the Seminoles struggle to get the scoring going, there needs to be a collective effort beyond just one player.

Darin Green Jr (11.8 ppg) and Primo Spears (10.3 ppg) have been consistent scorers this season, but need to stay alongside Watkins throughout every game. Exhausting Watkins is not the solution to success, especially if it wants to play into March.

Closeout down the stretch

Florida State men's basketball faced North Carolina on Jan. 27, 2024 at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center.
Florida State men's basketball faced North Carolina on Jan. 27, 2024 at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center.

FSU's last seven games have been close. The Seminoles had a chance to beat North Carolina all game in the Jan. 27 loss at home, down by just two points in the final minute of the game. It was down by just four to Virginia in the final two minutes of that game and was within five points in the final three minutes against Virginia Tech.

The difference in that game was the Seminoles could not close out down the stretch. Yes, they did win a close game against Boston College, 63-62, on the road, but the Eagles had a chance to win in the final seconds after Jalen Warley missed a shot to ice the game.

All season, the Seminoles have struggled to make that clutch shot in tight games. Close wins have resulted in leads FSU has been able to build up and use to hold off potential comebacks from its opponents.

Referencing the North Carolina game again, FSU went 1-of-5 from the field in the final three minutes of the game. It had every chance to close out, or at least take a lead, and struggled at nearly every opportunity.

Saturday's game against Duke could be very similar. The Blue Devils have only fallen twice in conference play, to North Carolina and Pittsburgh. They have also pulled clutch victories this season, specifically over Clemson, 72-71, where Duke's Tyrese Proctor shot 2-of-2 from the line in the final second of the game.

How to watch FSU men's basketball vs. Duke

Who: Florida State (13-11, 7-6 ACC) vs. No. 9 Duke (19-5, 10-3)

When/Where: 2 p.m., Donald L. Tucker Civic Center, Tallahassee, Fla.

TV/Radio: ESPN/101.5 FM

Jack Williams covers Florida State athletics for Tallahassee Democrat. Contact him via email at jwilliams@tallahassee.com or on X @jackgwilliams.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: 3 ways Florida State men's basketball can get back on track against Duke

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